THE DRY SEASON.

Hawke's Bay Tribune, Volume XII, Issue 235, 18 September 1922, Page 2

THE DRY SEASON.

MR CLEMENT WRAGGE’S BORECAST. Mr. C. J. Slonian writes to the “Press”:—“In 1913 Mr. Clement L. Wragge issued a general forecast of weather for tho period 1915-1930, a copy of which 1 enclose. The forecast, taking the last two seasons and the present shortage of rainfall, seems to work out fairly accurately. If the predicted drought for this season should eventuate, it would surely be wise to consider if the further export of wheat is justified until we are in a position to know how this year’s crop is likely to turn out.” The essential part of the forecast referred to by our correspondent is as follows:— During 1913, 1914, and part of 1915. the rainfall, taking Australia as a whole, will be under the average. This by no means implies that there will be iio rain ; on the contrary, good intervening rains will occur, largely due to 'inar tides, and the last part of this □eriod will be better than the first. From the middle of 1915 onwards the rainfall will improve and will markedly increase. From 1916 to 1920, inclusive, the seasons will be distinctly good, with abundant precipitation, but slightly lessened by lunar influence. In many places the rainfall, however, will be excessive—too great in fact—and largely above the average, resulting in ■terious flooding. This particularly re- ’ ts to 1917 and 1918, but there is some tason to believe that 1918 will not lie quite so wet as 1917. The year 1919 should likewise have an abundant rainfall, and also the early part of 1920, but with a decreasing tendency. After 1920 the rainfall will begin to steadily fall off. and continue decreasing during 1921 and 1922, and the worst of the great under-average period will be in 1923 and 1924; and Australians and New Zealanders will be justified in those years in calling it a “drought.” The Canterbury Plains and Otago may suffer severely, so let farmers store up fodder and avoid all waste. In 1925 matters will again begin to improve, and continue improving during 1926, and good seasons will prevail from 1927 to 1930, inclusive. Throughout will the moon and planetary perturbations exercise a modifying influence. New Zealand and other islands will respond in a modified way by reason of their insular positions. Continental Australia, owing to geographical situation, will obviously be the most responsive. Latitude, altotude, and features of physical geography are local modifying factors, and especially with regard to New Zealand.