The Gisborne Times. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. MONDAY, DECEMBER 11, 1911.

Gisborne Times, Volume XXIX, Issue 3396, 11 December 1911, Page 4

The Gisborne Times. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. MONDAY, DECEMBER 11, 1911.

It is safe to say that not since the pretent “Continuous" Who V/il! Win? Ministry got into

power Juts so much interest been taken in matters political in this country. To-day the figures in connection with the first ballot show that the Reform Party hare secured twenty-five seats, whilst the Government have some twenty-one scats, inclusive of Gisborne and the. Eastern Maori seats, where there were* no contests, to their credit. That-disposes oi, in all- forty-six of the eighty seats of which Parliament- is composed. Now what is likely to happen in the ease of the remaining thirty-four seam? It is this question that is being discussed and re-discussed over and over again by ail classes of the community. Of one thing there would appear to be a concensus of opinion, and that is that in the next Parliament the two loading parties will he pretty evenly balancedSo far as. the battle has proceeded it has been revealed that- the Reform Party in addition to gaining more teats, than tlie Government, can boast of wider support. For instance, it may be jjointed out that as a result of the firm ballet the Government only won two seats from tlie Reform Party. A\ hat is pnr- - ticularly striking in connection with the Ministerial victories, however, is the minced majorities in so many cases. If the fi.t riirov for Auckland Central are examined, it will he see that the absolute majority in favor of the Government candidate came down from 1919 to 429: at Hutt from 1538 to 89: at Dunedin Central from 1243 to 722 : at Motueka. held by a Minister, from 1501 to 10.87: at Btiller, the scat of the Chairman of Committees, from R 4B to 14G; at Thames from 2100 to 62: and in Awarua itself from 1578 to 469! Nor were the Ministerial victories in the instant-' where the Government captured Opposition seats very large. In the ease of Fgniont. the Hon. T. Mackenzie turned a minority of 149 to a majority of 334, whilst in the case of Sol wye Mr. Dickie converted a minority of 383 to a majority of 348. But if one turns to the seats, over which the Opposition banner floats, quite a different state of affairs meets the eye. Mr. Massey, the tender of the party, increased his absolute majority of 1187 in 1908 to 1872: Mr. Herries had a majority on this occasion of 1908 instead of 1303; Mr. Guthrie was sent back bv Oroua with a majority of 1021 instead of 15- There were, of course, one or two exceptions —Mr Fraser’s majority came down from 1511 to 151 for Wakatipu, but this is probably due to the fact that- ho now resides in Wellington, and is not- able now on account of advancing years to

■•do" his scattered electorate as thoroughly as he would like: and in the ease of Clutha the majority recorded for Mr. Malcolm in 1903 of 1799 fell to 371. But these reductions in majorities are, it will be admitted, more than made up by the magnificent victories that were gained in the seats that were taken from the Government. Mr. Bradnoy, for example, turned a minority of 1045 into a majority of 1134 in Auckland W.; Mr Wilson had a victory of 106 in Taumarunui, where formerly the Government had a majority of 1350; Mr. Lee won Oamaru with a majority of 67 as against a minority of 613 in 190 S; Mr. Statham converted a minority of 1512 in Dunedin Central to a majority of 92 ; and Mr. Young had the handsome majority of 1077 in Waikato, where formerly the Government were in the ascendancy hv 471 votes. If it should lrapjx'u then, as would seem likely, that the Government will capture the remaining three Native seats, the state of parties will l>e—Opposition 25. and Government 24. Tn connection with the thirty-one seats which will be the scenes of second ballots, both sines it would appear claim to be quite confident. The Government, it will be noted, have in all twenty-three or possibly twenty-four candidates for those seats; tbo Opposition have twenty-two supporters ; whilst of the other candidates six are. Laborites; one is a Socialist ; seven are Independent Liberals; and three are Independents- As matters stand at present it would seem as though the following scats must result as under: —

Government: Ohinemuri, Timavu. Christchurch S. ; Independent Liberal: Christchurch X., Christchurch E., and Nelson ; Opposition : Waitomata, Mastertan, Ashburton, Dunedin N., Waimarino, Pahintua, Raglan, Kaiparn,

Hawke’s Bay. As regards the remaining seats indications point in the following directions : —Government: Grcv Ryu, l 7 Wellington C., Wairau, Kaiapoi, Avon, Wait-alt i. Dunedin W., Invercargill, and Chalmers: Opposition: Parnell, Wellington Suburbs, arid Ricearton; Labor: Otn-ki, Wanganui, Wellington F-, and Wellington S. It will thus b<- seen—if thb forecast is anywhere, clone to the mark—that the Ward Government may possilny be able to can> on, but it wib only be v, itb the assistance ol Labor.