I.5deg warmer by 2050, says report

Press, 30 December 1988, Page 1

I.5deg warmer by 2050, says report

The “most likely” scenario is that by 2050 New Zealand temperatures will be I.sdeg warmer than now, according to the report. There would be reduced strong westerly winds and fewer rainy days in the west of both islands, but not necessarily less rain. With more northerlies and fewer westerlies, there could be more rain in the north of both islands, but less in the south-eqst of both islands. The frost-free season should be up to 30 days longer, the snowline between 100 m and 300 m higher, and mean sea level about 20 to 40cm higher. But the report also contains an alternative “warm” scenario. This would see New Zealand

3deg. warmer in 2050 than now, with the frequent incursion of tropical cyclones from the northwest — like Cyclone Bola this year — and rainfall up in the north and north-east of both islands. There would be less rain in the south of both islands, particularly in inland Southland and Central Otago, with the reduced flow of westerlies.

Temperature increases in the southern half of the South Island and the sub-Antarctic islands would be greater than the New Zealand average, the report said. The frost-free period would be up to 60 days longer, the snowline 300 m to 400 m higher, and mean sea levels between 30cm and 60cm above present levels.