Chch set to enjoy N.I. temperatures

Press, 30 December 1988, Page 1

Chch set to enjoy N.I. temperatures

By

OLIVER RIDDELL

in Wellington Christchurch temperatures by 2050 as warm as those of Hastings today have been predicted in a report on climate change prepared by the Royal Society of New Zealand. Invercargill would be as warm as Christchurch and Hastings as warm as Whangarei. This report is the first phase in a three-stage programme begun by the Government to assess the impact of the greenhouse effect on New Zealand.

It has involved atmospheric research and liaison with international climate agencies to identify the forecast effects, coordinated by the Royal Society and involving the D.S.I.R. and the Meteorological Service.

Phase two will be an assessment of the impact of climate change on the environment, economy and society. Phase three will be the development of policies to reduce the impact of global warming.

The report said there was now undisputed evidence that the surface of the planet was warming after increased atmospheric concentrations of gases absorbing infra-red radiation.

It was clear, however, there would be considerable delay — perhaps a few decades — in the

global climate system responding to the changing gas levels in the atmosphere. It was for that reason that no acceleration in sea-level rise had been seen, it said, and why there was much debate in scientific circles on whether recent increases in global surface temperature were proof of the greenhouse effect. There had been climate variations in the past, but the predicted global mean temperature increase was more rapid than any that seemed to have occurred previously. New Zealand temperatures had increased only 0.5 per cent between 1945 and 1985. The report said the most likely prospect was for them to rise between o.sdeg. and Ideg. between 1985 and 2025, and perhaps Ideg. and 2deg. higher than now by 2050. There was some indication that winter temperatures would rise faster than summer temperatures in the southern half of the South Island. It was not possible to predict wind changes, the report said, other than that prevailing westerly winds could decrease, especially during the winter. The snowline was expected to retreat about 100 to 150 metres for every degree rise in temperature.