BRIGHTER OUTLOOK

Auckland Star, Volume LXV, Issue 1, 2 January 1934, Page 9

BRIGHTER OUTLOOK

POLITICAL YEAR. MEASURES AND MOVES. IMPROVED BUDGET OUTLOOK. (By DAMOCLES.) The note of bleak uncertainty on which the political year of 1032 closed is happily absent as the curtain is rung clown on the Parliamentary enactments of 1933. By comparison, prospects are of the brightest, and portents are that depression and all talk of the doleful period between 1930 and 1933 will quickly find their way into a forgotten past.

Late recess indications of trade revival, restoration of trading and spending confidence and better prices for most of the exportable products have been maintained, and the year conies to an end with the outlook surprisingly improved and with a good deal of evidence that the upward tendency is universal and likely to stabilise at a sound and safe, if not spectacular level. The session of Parliament itself connoted normality, the Government's programme being free from the "shock" measures of

recent years. - Lower Deficit. Most heartening of all is the satisfaetory condition of the national Budget. Although the financial year 1932-33 was estimated to show a deficit of £2,000,000, the term ended with a small surplus, and it is certain that, from purely accountancy standards, the current year's accounts would have balanced had not the Government embarked upon its inflationary exchange policy. A deficit of £2,000,000 was foreshadowed for the 12 months which will end on March 31 next, but based on the returns for the first eight months, the deficiency will fall below tliat figure, if the buoyancy of revenue now apparent is sustained. Actually revenue is £1.371,000 higher than for the corresponding period of last year, Departmental expenditure is £353,000 less, and taxation receipts are up to the extent of £40,000. As predicted earlier, the return from the sales tax has exceeded the estimate. Close budgeting is not practicable in times of financial instability, but with the return to better days, which appears now to be assured, the Treasury estimates will bear a more intimate relation to actual results.

The improvement in the unemployment registrations is also a factor, and as increasing demand for goods and services necessitates replenishment of stock, imports will automatically rise. With an increase in importations, some measure of the embarrassment which exchange has caused the Government's finances will be removed, since the State will have off its liand a proportionately smaller amount of the accumulated London surplus credits, against the loss on which it indemnified the trading banks. Party Stability.

As with tlie finances, there is more stability about the political situation itself, although it cannot be denied that a section of the Coalition left the House dissatisfied with the manner in which the final business of the recent session was concluded. When Parliament adjourned in December, 1932, to enable Cabinet to take stock of the general situation and devise means of meeting the crisis, the main policy formulated by the rural-minded Ministry was that of exchange manipulation, which, while appeasing the floor members who represented country constituencies, forfeited the support of the then Minister of Finance and alienated the votes of several city members. There was talk of breakaways and alignments, but nothing came of it, the only development of moment being the decision of Messrs. Wright and Veitch to speak and vote independently without joining up officially with the Independent group. Later, of course, Mr. Samuel announced his independence, but , for different reasons. The House was met ill September last with the state of the parties practically unaltered. A notable feature was the opening of Parliament's doors, for the first time in history, to a woman member, Mrs. E. R. McCombs, widow of the late member for Lyttelton.

Before the session had been many weeks in progress the then Leader of the Opposition, Mr. H. E. Holland, died, and in the second by-election within months the Labour party held its seat.

Banking Legislation. The only achievement of the session worthy of especial mention is the passage of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bill, the machinery provisions of which are to be put into operation shortly. The result is a tribute to the Rt. Hon. J. G. Coates, Minister of Finance, who made no secret of the fact that he staked his political reputation and future on the wisdom of the terms of the legislation, an<f on his determination to pilot the measure to the Statute Book. The bill did not have as smooth a passage as had been ex- | pected, notwithstanding the unanimous support promised by tlie Coalition caucus. Clearly, a majority of the House favoured a greater measure of State control than was provided, and believed this could be best attained through the straight-out appointment by Cabinet of the governor and his deputy. To prevent the measure from being delayed, and to avoid the possibility of an adverse vote on the relevant clauses, an undertaking to have a fresh provision drafted was given, but as technical difficulties subsequently stood in the way of the complete redemption of that undertaking, the feeling among a section of members, Government as well as, Opposition, was, and presumably still is, that the Minister had failed to meet then wishes.

Rushed Work. Dissatisfaction still prevails over the madcap rush which sent over a score of bills to the Statute Book in the final 19 sitting hours of the session, these including the major Finance Act, which, on the Minister's own admission, contained sufficiently diverse and individual subjects as to warrant, had time permitted, the preparation of quite a number of separate measures. The small Coalition group, variously dubbed as the "study circle" or the "Cabinet supervision committee" discussed and condemned the rush methods of its leaders, but decided not to take any action until the opening of Parliament next session. It is proposed to ventilate the complaint at the first caucus of the party this year. I

Tariff Revision. To all intents and purposes the year which has closed has seen the end of the dual yearly sessions, and 1934, in all probability, will mark a return to the. mid-year,' and only, assemblage. The only justification for an early gathering this year is the projected revision of the tariff, but, it is uncerstood, there is no prospect of the report of the commission being presented to the Government before March 31. As the revision will be based 011 the recommendation of the commission, and Cabinet will require i rom a month to six weeks to complete the draft legislation, it appears certain that the Ministry will decide to have one bite at the legislative chcrry and call members together in June. This course necessarily means a further delay in giving practical clTect to portion of New Zealand's undertaking under the Ottawa agreement.