SCHOOL POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR THE YEARS 1950-60 (STATEMENT BY HON. R. M. ALGIE, MINISTER OF EDUCATION, RELATIVE TO)

Appendix to the Journals of the House of Representatives, 1950 Session I, J-05

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1950 NEW ZEALAND

SCHOOL POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR THE YEARS 1950-60 (STATEMENT BY HON. R. M. ALGIE, MINISTER OF EDUCATION, RELATIVE TO)

Laid on the Table of the House by Leave

CONTENTS Page Introduction .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2 The Salient Facts .. .. ~ .. .. .. .. .. 2 Implications— Demand for Teachers . . .. .. . . . . .. . . 6 School Accommodation .. .. .. . . . . .. .. 8 Finance . . .. .. .. . . .. . . .. 9 Regional Estimates— Education Districts .. .. . . . . . . . . .. ..11 Urban Area of Greater Wellington .. .. .. . . . . .. 12 Conclusion : Comparison with Oversea Estimates .. . . .. .. .. 13 Tables in the Text— I. Enrolments in Primer Classes .. . . .. .. .. 5 11. Additional Teachers Required .. .. .. .. .. 6 111. Total Numbers of Teachers for Additions and Replacements . . .. .. 7 IV. Additional Class-rooms . . . . •. .. . . .. 8 V. Total Primary School Population, 1929-1949 . . .. . .. 10 VI. Education District Estimates .. .. .. . - .. 11 VII. Education Districts —Index Numbers .. .. .. .. ..11 VIII. District Distribution of Enrolments .. .. .. . . . . ..11 IX. Primary School Enrolments —Greater Wellington Areas .. .. 12 X. Greater Wellington Areas—lndex Numbers . . .. . . .. 12 Figures in the Text— I. Total School Population, 1930-1960 .. .. .. . . .. 3 11. Primary School Enrolments .. .. .. . . .. 3 111. Post-primary School Enrolments .. .. .. . . .. 4 IV. North Island and South Island Enrolments .. .. . . .. 10 Tables Appended— A. Total Enrolment figures, 1930-1960 . . .. .. .. .. 13 B. Total Enrolment, 1930-1960 —Index Numbers .. .. .. .. . . 14 C. School Population Estimates, 1950-1960 1. Public Primary Schools .. . . .. .. . . .. 15 2. Private Primary Schools . . .. .. . . . . 16 3. Public Post-primary Schools (Full-time Students) . . . . . . 17 4. Private Secondary Schools .. .. .. .. . . 18 5. All Public and Private Schools .. .. .. .. .. 19 Appendix : Note on the Method oe Estimation .. .. . . .. 20 Table D. Factors for School Population Estimates .. .. . . . . 22

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INTRODUCTION The purpose of this paper is to make known certain vital facts to all who are concerned, as legislators, administrators, parents, teachers, or employers, with the schooling of the children of New Zealand during the next decade. It presents only facts and figures, and leaves each reader to draw for himself the conclusions that have a significance for him. The number of children in New Zealand is increasing rapidly, much more rapidly than is commonly recognized. We can be quite certain that the big increases in births will be followed by corresponding increases in school population. We do not have to wait till the children arrive at the school gate to know of their existence. We know how many children are born in New Zealand each year, and we know also that the great majority of them begin to go to school before the age of six and must stay at school until they are at least fifteen. This paper attempts to forecast up to the year 1960 the demand for school places. Up till this date estimates may be expected to be reasonably accurate. After that, forecasts would become increasingly uncertain ; but there is no sign of any decline in total numbers even in the succeeding decade. Ten or fifteen years ago it was commonly expected that the birth-rate would continue at a low figure for an indefinite period. Long-term forecasts of the future school population were based on the assumption of a marked reduction in the number of marriages and in the size of families, and children of school age were expected to constitute a smaller and smaller proportion of an ageing total population. It should be a source of satisfaction to every New Zealander that the gloomy forecasts of the 1930's have not proved to be true ; but this paper is concerned only with the school problems that have resulted from the change of population trends. The figures here recorded tell their own story. Their implications cannot be avoided ; for the next ten years or more, one of New Zealand's major tasks will be to find a place for every child and a teacher for every class. THE SALIENT FACTS The number of full-time pupils on all school rolls remained at about 280,000 from 1930 to 1943. Between 1943 and 1950 the number rose to 348,000, which represents an average yearly increase of nearly 10,000 for seven years. By 1955 the total school population will be 435,000, so that the average yearly increase will be more than 17,000 for the next five years. The increase will continue after 1955, but at a somewhat slower rate. It is estimated that by 1960 the number of school children will have increased by another 45,000 to 480,000. During the next few years the New Zealand school system must further expand to cater for these additional pupils in all its schools. The magnitude of this development may be seen clearly from Table B, which sets out the total enrolments in each year of the thirty-year period, 1930-1960, by index numbers (1930 = 100). The index was 100-2 in 1943. It will be 150 in 1954 and 171-7 in 1960. Figure I illustrates the rise in school population for the whole period. Primary School Enrolments The total enrolment in public primary schools, including intermediate and Maori schools, grew rapidly from 1945 onwards to reach 256,000 in 1950, an increase of 42,000 in five years. It is estimated that there will be 345,000 children on the rolls of all public primary schools by 1960. This is 131,000 above the figure for 1945. The index number for the estimated 1960 figure is 157-4. The index number for private primary schools whose rolls showed some increase between 1930 and 1945 is estimated at 180 in 1960, provided those schools are able to supply the additional buildings and equipment to match the rate of estimated increases. If the private school system does not expand at this rate, the increases in public school enrolments must be expected to be greater than is indicated by the estimates. Figure II illustrates the primary-school enrolment figures at five-yearly intervals between 1930 and 1980.

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Figure II

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Figure I

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Post-primary School Enrolments

The rolls of public post-primary schools rose from 30,000 in 1930 to 45,000 in 1945, and it is estimated that they will exceed 71,000 (with an index number of 241-2) in 1960. Private post-primary school rolls increased from 3,900 in 1930 to 9,000 in 1945. If the present rate of increase is maintained, their total by 1960 will be over 15,000 (with an index number of 390*4). Should the private schools not increase at this rate, public post-primary school rolls will exceed the figures quoted above. Figure 111 and Table A show that the probable total enrolment in public and private post-primary schools combined will be 87,000 in 1960. This is an increase of 33,000 over the 1945 figure of 54,000.

Figure III

Reasons for the Increases The rapid expansion of primary and post-primary school populations has been due to two causes. In the first place, more children outside the compulsory school age (seven to fifteen years) are now attending school. At the lower end a still increasing proportion of infants is entering school at the age of five years. At the upper end the proportion of young people continuing at school beyond the age of fifteen has also increased. Secondly, the considerable annual increase in births that has occurred since 1939 has begun to swell school rolls. This increase has had a much greater influence on the rolls of primary schools than have increases caused by the higher proportion of five-year-old pupils now attending school. Statistics of the number of births in each year from 1932 to 1949 are given in Tables C 1-5, and it is not necessary to quote detailed figures here. The figures for two different periods, fifteen years apart, are sufficient to

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demonstrate the great increase that has occurred. The annual average of births for the three years 1931 to 1933 was 28,000, but for the three years 1946 to 1948 the average was 49,000. The first wave of these increases reached the infant departments from 1944 onwards. In 1944 the total enrolment figure in infant departments stood at 70,500. It increased by 4,000 in 1945, and by 6,000 in each of the two following years. Because of the temporary fall in births in 1942 and 1943, the enrolment figure declined by 3,000 to just over 84,000 in 1948, and remained at that level in 1949. In 1950 it rose by approximately 3,000, and the 1951 increase will be double that figure. The rise will continue until 1955, by which time the total infant department enrolment figure will be 113,000. After that it will, for a time at least, probably decline slowly, following the expected fall in the yearly number of births. The actual infant enrolment figures for the years 1944 to 1949, and the estimated figures for the years 1950 to 1959 are shown in this table. Table I—Enrolment in Primer Classes (Public, Maori, and Private Schools) 1944 .. .. .. 70,500 1950 .. .. .. 87,000 1945 .. .. .. 74,500 1951 .. .. .. 94,000 1946 .. .. .. 81,000 1953 .. .. .. 111,000 1947 .. .. .. 87,300 1955 .. .. .. 113,000 1948 .. .. .. 84,200 1957 .. .. .. 108,000 1949 .. .. .. 84,400 I 1959 .. .. .. 104,000 As the infants pass on to the standards the cumulative effect of the increases in births on the primary-school rolls becomes more and more apparent. It is anticipated that a peak enrolment in primary schools, including infant classes, standards, and Forms I and 11, will be reached in 1959-60. If the expected decline in births (which has been forecast for the years 1950 to 1955) should not occur, the peak enrolment will exceed the estimated 393,000. Conversely, if the number of births declines more steeply than has been here assumed, the peak enrolment will be proportionately less. The waves of increased births reach the post-primary schools about seven to nine years after their first impact on the primary schools. What increase in post-primary rolls there was between 1945 and 1950 was due to an increased proportion of pupils staying at school beyond the age of fifteen. The enrolment will increase rapidly after 1950, and the rate of increase will gain momentum in the ensuing ten years. But the peak enrolment will not be reached by 1960. Post-primary school rolls will, if they follow the population growth of the thirteen to eighteen year age-group, continue to rise after 1960. It is estimated that the increase from 1960 to 1961 will be 6,000 pupils in the public post-primary, and. over 1,000 in the private post-primary schools. From 1961 to 1962 a further increase of 3,500 in public post-primary and 1,000 in private postprimary schools is estimated. This represents an increase of 13 per cent, in two years alone. Finally, it will be after 1960 that the University colleges and other institutions of higher education will have to be ready for an increased, population of young people between eighteen and twenty-five years of age. Since this development will take place after the ten-year period, 1950 to 1960, to which this paper refers, and because it may be influenced by other than the demographic factors here considered, it ie sufficient merely to draw attention to the bearing upon University enrolment of the increased juvenile population. IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCREASING SCHOOL POPULATION The outstanding fact that emerges from this survey is that the school population will increase by more than 140,000 in the ten-year period after 1949. The full import of this will be seen when it is realized that this number is over a third as large a gain as the total school population, primary and post-primary, in the whole of the South Island jn 1949 (105,000). ]f the public schools continue to cater for 87 per cent, of the pupils,

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as they do at present, they will, in 1960, have about 123,000 more children on their rolls than they had in 1949. The major share of the responsibility for providing the additional teachers, class-rooms, subsidiary buildings, teaching materials, and other educational services falls on the Government and on the local governing bodies which function under the Education Act. The chief implications of that fact, for Government, will in this Part be discussed under the three headings of (1) demand for teachers, (2) school accommodation, and (3) finance. Demand for Teachers To understand the significance of the figures that follow it is necessary to know the ways in which teachers are at present recruited and trained. Primary-school teachers enter the service in either of two ways. The great majority, on leaving post-primary school, spend two years at a teachers' training college, followed by a year as a probationary assistant in a State school. In 1949 a special emergency training course of one year was instituted to cater for more mature entrants from other occupations. A small number of uncertificated teachers are employed in special circumstances. Entrance to the postprimary service is more varied. Some teachers are recruited directly from the primary service, whilst others spend one year at Auckland Teachers' Training College after having completed a degree. Recently a system of post-primary teachers' bursaries has been instituted to assist some of these students while they are studying full time for a degree prior to entering training college. Some home-science teachers are trained at the School of Home Science at Otago University, and others have one year of training at a training college and a second year at a selected technical school. Teachers of woodwork, metalwork, and commercial subjects are sometimes appointed straight from industry and sometimes are given a year of training in teaching before being employed in the schools. It is still possible, in theory at least, to become a post-primary teacher in any subject without any training in teaching. Staffing of primary and of post-primary schools must be considered separately. Estimates of the numbers of teachers required can conveniently be based on the present ratio of pupils to teachers. In 1948 the ratios were 33 pupils to one teacher in public primary schools and 20*5 to 1 in public post-primary schools. While these are over-all averages obtained by dividing the total number of pupils by the total number of teachers, they do not mean that the average sizes of classes are 33 and 20J respectively. The total of primary school teachers includes certificated teachers only—that is, it excludes probationary assistants, junior assistants at Maori schools, and other uncertificated assistants, but it includes head teachers freed from class teaching as well as itinerant specialists who are not in charge of classes. The total for post-primary teachers includes specialists with a post-primary grading such as manual-training instructors and also those who teach part-time students not included in the numbers of full-time post-primary pupils. Therefore the ratios of pupils, while valid for the purpose of estimating the future need for teachers, are not a guide to the average size of classes, nor do they give an indication of the great variations in the size of classes. Table ll—Additional Numbers op Teachers Required to Meet the Increases in School Population Y ear Public Public Post- All Public Primary. primary. Schools. 1951 .. .. 300 85 385 1952 .. .. - .. 410 100 510 1953 .. .. .. 450 145 595 1954 .. .. .. 390 220 610 1955 .. .. 310 235 545 1956 .. .. 280 80 360 1957 .. .. 260 .. 260 1958 .. .... 220 70 290 1959 .. .. 160 155 315 1960 .. .. 70 310 380 Ten-year totals .. ..2,850 1,400 4,250

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It is not, of course, sufficient to estimate the number of teachers to be recruited merely by adding to the present strength of the teaching service the figures shown in this table. Additional numbers must be recruited each year to replace those who, for various reasons, leave the teaching service. The annual rate of loss will, among other reasons, be strongly influenced by the proportion of men to women teachers, because the average length of the service life of women teachers is considerably shorter than that of men. Many women teachers marry and resign after teaching for only a few years, and they must be replaced. Estimates of the percentage of teachers who will each year be lost to the teaching service must therefore take account of the proportion of men to women teachers, and in the estimates made here it is assumed that the proportion will remain as at present. In recent years the annual rate of loss has been just under 10 per cent, in the primary service and approximately per cent, in the post-primary teaching service. The primary-school service rate of loss includes a number of primary-school teachers (202 in 1948) who transfer to post-primary schools. This factor, however, does not reduce the rate of loss from the primary service, but must be considered as one source of recruitment for post-primary teaching. No adjustment for this transfer, therefore, has been made in Table 111. Table lll—Number of Teachers Required to Meet Replacements and Additional Needs -57- t, » Public Public Post- All Public Year. JJencit. - n . . o i i Primary. primary. Schools. 1950 .. ..600 .. .. 600 1951 .. .. .. 1,005 275 1,280 1952 .. .. .. 1,170 295 1,465 1953 .. .. .. 1,270 350 1,620 1954 .. .. .. 1,230 435 1,665 1955 .. .... 1,180 465 1,645 1956 .. .. .. 1,165 330 1,495 1957 .. .. .. 1,180 235 1,415 1958 .. .. .. 1,150 320 1,470 1959 .. .... 1,110 415 1,525 1960 .. 1,040 580 1,620 Ten-year total demand 600 11,500 3,700 15,800 The shortage of qualified teachers in the primary-school service is expected to be approximately 600 by the end of 19-50. This number has been included in the above table as a deficit which must be added to the total demand for new teachers during the ten-year period 1951-1960. Until 1948 the annual admissions to the teachers' training colleges averaged about 700, but in that year the number was raised to 1,050, and in 1949, 1,225 students were admitted. In addition, in 1949, and again in 1950, 300 mature students were recruited for a special one-year training course. A fifth training college was opened at Ardmore in 1948 in premises temporarily lent by the Air Force, but even so the resources of the five colleges are being seriously strained to handle the present numbers of students in training. In 1952, when the second group of special trainees will be available as qualified teachers, the total demand (including that arising from the existing shortage) will for the moment be met. But in the following years the urgent need for more teachers cannot be fully satisfied if the intake of students continues at the present rates of 1,050 and 1,225 in alternate years and if no more students are trained under the emergency scheme. The existing training colleges are considered to be already above the optimum size, and, if they are not to grow still larger, admissions cannot be increased unless a sixth college is provided. These calculations make no provision for educational improvements, such as a reduction in the size of classes, that would in themselves require an increase in the number of teachers. Such improvements, desirable as they are, may have to wait until the demands arising from increased school rolls have been met.

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After 1960 the demand for additional teachers in primary schools is likely to decline temporarily for a few years. By the early 1970'5, to-day's five-year-olds will be sending their children to swell the school rolls. Table 111 shows that the increased demand for post-primary teachers is proportionately greater than the increase in the need for primary teachers, and that it will be more sustained. Two hundred and seventy-five will be needed in 1951, and that figure will be more than doubled for 1960. Still greater increases in the post-primary school rolls after 1960 will call for the training of still more teachers. To ensure an average inflow of 370 teachers per year into the post-primary school service for the next ten years it will be necessary to increase the present number of 80 graduate students who are admitted each year to the one-year course for post-primary teacher trainees. There will be a keen demand for new university graduates in art and science, and for those who have undergone training for specialist teaching in home science, physical education, commercial instruction, woodwork, and metalwork. School Accommodation A primary-school class-room will normally hold forty children, and a post-primary class-room has a normal capacity of thirty. Using these figures, one can estimate the number of new class-rooms which will need to be built to house the increasing school population. Admittedly, a number of existing class-rooms could each absorb a few more children, but this process of absorption will probably be balanced by the cases where quite a small increase in roll numbers will create a demand for new rooms in schools which are already filled to capacity. In addition to the number of rooms required to house the future increase in school rolls, the present shortage of class-rooms must be taken into account. During the war years defence construction had first call on the capacity of the building industry, and very few school-rooms were built. Between 1945 and 1950 the shortage of building materials and the priority necessarily given to the construction of houses delayed the building of new class-rooms, and there is already in 1950 a shortage of 520 rooms to be made good in primary schools. There is also a shortage of rooms in post-primary schools, but the total is known to be much lower than in primary schools. It is disregarded in this paper. The estimate of additional class-rooms required, based on the factors mentioned above, may be tabulated as follows : Table IV —Number op Class-rooms Required to Accommodate the Rising School Population Public Public Total Primary. Post-primary. Class-rooms. Required by 1955 .. .. 2,060 470 2,530 Required between 1955 and 690 350 1,040 1960 2,750 820 3,570 A factor, largely unpredictable, that swells the demand for new buildings is the need to replace some old schools. Some of the older wooden buildings are becoming unserviceable and, in addition, the gradual shift of population away from some districts is leaving surplus class-rooms there while others are urgently needed in newly populated districts. In other words, some schools must be replaced because they are no longer in the right place to be useful. Another 100 class-rooms will possibly be required for this reason. New Schools Merely to state the number of new class-rooms required does not give an adequate picture of the work to be done. A large number of class-rooms will, of course, be built simply as additions to existing schools, but a number of entirely new schools must be

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built. There is a limit to the size of a school as an efficient educational unit. Because of that fact, and also to shorten the distance which children will have to travel to school, it is better to build new schools than to enlarge existing schools beyond the optimum size. Newly settled areas and new urban housing areas will have to be served by new schools. Where new schools are needed suitable land, well placed in relation to the area to be served, must be found and bought well in advance. It is now the practice to reserve suitable areas when new land is being subdivided for building, and most of the sites required for schools that will be built in the next five years are already purchased. The shortage of architects and draughtsmen trained in the designing of schools is a source of difficulty that will have to be overcome in part by the greater use of standardized plans and of standard prefabricated class-room units. Shortage of building materials has caused difficulty in the past, but, though the demands for the next few years will be heavy, most building materials are now more readily available than they have been for some years. Primary class-rooms are now usually built of wood, and the most acute period of timber shortage appears to have passed. Steel, concrete, and brick are preferred for large post-primary schools because large single-storey buildings are wasteful of land, but two-storey wooden buildings are dangerous if fire breaks out. Structural steel and cement are likely to be scarce for some years to come, and an adequate share of available supplies must be reserved for school building needs. Finance This paper would be incomplete without some reference to the heavy cost which must necessarily be met in building, equipping, staffing, and maintaining the additional schools. It is felt, however, that it would be misleading to state figures for that cost. Estimates of the future school population can be made with a fairly high degree of accuracy, and the numbers of teachers and class-rooms required can be calculated with some confidence. But estimates of costs for several years into the future are subject to unpredictable changes. Building costs per square foot of floor space have doubled in the past ten years and it is impossible to foretell future fluctuations upward or downward. All that can be said with certainty, therefore, is that it will cost many millions of pounds to build the essential educational buildings during the next few years, and that the annual cost to the State of providing education for the children of this country must rise steeply for some years. REGIONAL ESTIMATES The implications of the rising school population have so far been discussed for the Dominion as a whole, but the rate of increase will, of course, differ from one part of the country to another. In some few areas the population is declining, while in others it is growing at a much faster rate than is apparent from the figures for the whole Dominion. There are long-term gradual movements of population from one part of the country to another, the over-all trend being a drift from south to north. The effect is to ease the problem in some southern areas and to aggravate it seriously in some northern districts. Secondly, there is in many growing urban areas a movement from the centre outwards to newer housing settlements, which results, perhaps temporarily, in a rapidly increasing school population in the newer residential areas while in other residential areas it becomes stationary or even declines. Whole new communities are growing up on the fringes of some of our cities and larger boroughs, and the new houses are occupied mainly by young married couples and their children. Nearly every family there will be sending young children to school. The older parts of the cities, which include a high proportion of houses and flats without children, will have less than their previous share of young families, while the children of many established families there will be growing beyond the school age.

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To complete the picture it is therefore necessary to draw attention to these local variations in the main current of increasing school population. Those variations will be the special concern of local education authorities which will have to provide school accommodation adequate to the needs of each locality. While the paragraphs and tables that follow do not deal exhaustively with the subject of local variations, their purpose is to illustrate some of the differences and to suggest a method by which regional and local estimates may be made. The following table shows the index numbers of the primary-school population for the North and South Islands separately and for the Dominion as a whole at five-yearly intervals from 1929 to 1949. The base for each column separately is the relative school population figure for 1929, which is equated to 100. Table Y —Total Primary-school Population Over Period of Twenty Years. Index Numbers (1929=100) December. North Island South Island Dominion Alone. Alone. as a Whole. 1929 .. .. .. 100 100 100 1934 .. .. .. 94-5 91-2 93-4 1939 .. .. .. 101-2 91-2 97-7 1944 .. • .. .. 105-5 88-2 99-5 1949 .. .. ..121-8 97-9 113-6 In the twenty-year period the Dominion figure increased by 13-6 per cent., but this figure is made up of an increase of 21-8 per cent, in the North Island, and a decrease of 2-1 per cent, in the South Island. (The percentage figures for the two islands separately do not add to the Dominion figure because the North Island total is higher than the South Island total.) Figure IY portrays graphically the data in the above table, and also the estimated primary-school enrolment figure for 1954. It shows clearly that the Dominion increase is chiefly due to the rapid increase of the North Island school population:—

Figure IV

A method of making district estimates on the basis of the Dominion estimates given in this paper is suggested by these figures. The index for the North Island is increasing more rapidly than is the Dominion index. The point it will have reached in (say) three years from now can be estimated from the present trend. On the basis of that estimated figure we can, after referring to the estimate of the Dominion school population three years hence as shown in this paper, make an estimate of the North Island school population in 1953.

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Education District Estimates By that method the primary-school enrolments that may be expected in each education district in 1951 and 1953 have been estimated. The following table shows those estimates with, for comparison, the total enrolments in 1929, 1939, and 1949 : Table Vl—Public and Private Primary School Enrolments (December) Education District. 1929. 1939. 1949. 1951. 1953. Auckland .. '.. 74,046 75,846 97,416 106,000 120,750 Taranaki .. .. 13,023 12,245 13,744 14,600 16,000 Wanganui .. .. 18,913 16,895 19,561 22,300 25,750 Hawke'sßay .. 18,524 16,939 19,437 22,200 25,000 Wellington .. .. 34,186 33,727 41,218 44,500 49,000 Nelson .. .. 7,603 7,080 8,220 8,700 9,250 Canterbury .. .. 42,772 38,937 43,846 46,400 52,250 Otago .. .. 22,973 20,238 21,467 23,800 25,000 Southland .. .. 13,161 12,431 12,694 13,200 14,250 Maori schools .. 7,511 11,047 13,845 13,900 14,250 Dominion .. 252,712 245,385 291,448 315,600 351,500 The difference in the rate of growth in different districts may be seen more clearly if these figures are converted to index numbers (again on the basis that the 1929 figure in each district === 100). Table Vll—Public and Private Primary School Enrolment Index Numbers District. 1929. 1939. 1949. 1951. 1953. Auckland .. .. ..100 103-8 129 141 160 Taranaki .. .. ..100 94-9 105-6 112 122 Wanganui .. .. ..100 90-2 102-6 117 135 Hawke'sßay .. ..100 91-8 103-4 118 133 Wellington .. .. ..100 99-1 119-5 129 142 Nelson .. .. ..100 94-1 105-1 112 120 Canterbury .. .. .. 100 . 91-1 100-6 107 118 Otago .. .. ..100 88-7 99 102 107 Southland .. .. ..100 94-5 95-5 100 108 Maori schools . . .. 100 147-1 184-3 185 190 Dominion .. ..100 97-3 114-2 123 137 The rate of increase in enrolments for the Auckland Education Board district is in excess of the Dominion rate, that for the Wanganui district is close to the Dominion rate, and that in the. Otago and Southland districts, though there, is some increase, is proportionately much smaller than is the Dominion rate. The change in the relative position of the districts is shown even more clearly in the following Table VIII, which gives for 1929 (actual) and for 1953 (estimated) the percentage of the total primary-school population enrolled in the schools of each district. Table Vlll—Percentage of Primary-school Enrolments, by Districts District 1929. 1953. % % Auckland .. .. .. .. 29-4 34-4 Taranaki .. .. .. .. 5-1 4-6 Wanganui .. .. .. .. 7-4 7-3 Hawke'sßay .. .. .. .. 7-3 7-1 Wellington .. .. .. .. 13-4 13-9 Nelson .. .. .. ..3-4 2-6 Canterbury .. .. .. .. 16-9 14-8 Otago .. .. .. .. 9-1 7-1 Southland .. .. .. .. 5-1 4-1 Maori schools .. .. .. .. 2-9 4-1 Dominion , .. .. .. 100-0 100-0 Even though the school population in every South Island district is increasing, the South Island proportion of the Dominion total is declining because the rate of increase in the Auckland district is so much above the Dominion average rate.

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Changes within the Urban District of Greater Wellington The consequences of population movements within the much smaller compass of one urban area may be illustrated in Greater Wellington. This area, which includes Wellington and Lower Hutt Cities, the Boroughs of Upper Hutt, Petone, and Eastbourne, the Town District of Johnsonville, and the " vicinity " areas of Hutt and Makara Counties is considered for this purpose as one urban unit. Its population was 150,000 in 1936, 173,500 in 1945, and 193,300 in April, 1950. The number of people in the area increased by 16 per cent, in the nine-and-a-half-year period from the 1936 census to the 1945 census, and by another 13 per cent, during the four and a half years from 1945 to 1950. The comparative figures for the whole Dominion in the same two periods were 8 per cent, and 12 per cent, respectively. When schools have to be provided for such a large urban unit it is not sufficient merely to consider increases in the total population. In Greater Wellington a further complication is added by the fact that a marked redistribution of the total number of school-children has taken place among the different residential districts during the last fifteen years. To illustrate this development, the Greater Wellington urban area has been divided into five regions, which are designated respectively, Central-Southern, Eastern, Western, Northern, and Hutt and Eastern Bays. Within each region there are several public primary schools, and the figures which follow show the totals of the rolls of those schools at the beginning of the third term for each of the years 1939, 1944, 1949, and 1954. The 1954 figures are projected for each of the different regions in accordance with the trend in each region during the years 1939 to 1949. Table IX—Public Primary-school Enrolments in Greater Wellington by Regions Region. 1939. 1944. 1949. 1954. Central-Southern .. .. .. 3,624 2,945 2,697 2,225 Eastern .. .. .. .. 2,777 ' 2,712 3,063 3,475 Western .. .. •• .. 3,272 2,868 3,110 3,425 Northern .. .. .. .. 1,698 1,981 2,572 3,275 Hutt and Eastern Bays .. .. .. 5,677 6,207 9,246 12,600 Greater Wellington .. .. .. 17,048 16,713 20,688 25,000 In the following table these figures are converted to index numbers (1939 = 100) to show more clearly the trends in the different regions. Table X—lndex Numbers for Public Primary-school Enrolments in Greater Wellington (1939 = 100) Region. 1939. 1944. 1949. 1954. Central-Southern .. .. .. 100 81-3 74-4 61 Eastern .. .. •• •• 100 97-7 110-3 125 Western .. .. .. •• 100 87-6 95-1 105 Northern .. .. .. ..100 116-7 151-5 193 Hutt and Eastern Bays .. .. .. 100 109-3 162-9 222 Greater Wellington .. .. .. 100 98 121-3 147 While the total school population of Greater Wellington is expected to be 47 per cent, higher in 1954 than in 1939, the regional changes vary from a decline of 39 per cent, for the Central-Southern region to increases of 93 per cent, and 122 per cent, respectively in the Northern and Hutt regions. It is not necessary to stress the fact that these regional variations cause special difficulties because surplus class-rooms in Wellington South are no help in accommodating children who live in the Hutt Valley or the Porirua Basin. Schools must be planned and built as close as possible to the homes of the children.

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CONCLUSION A comparison between the position in New Zealand and that in certain other countries may be of interest. Oversea Estimates of Increases in School Population. New Zealand The Office of Education, Federal Security Agency, has forecast Comparison, for the United States of America an additional ten and a half million pupils enrolled in all public and non-public elementary and secondary schools (from Kindergarten to Grade 12) in the thirteen-year period 1947-1960. This corresponds to an increase of almost .. .. .. 40 per cent. 50 per cent. The British Ministry of Education expects that in England and Wales the total number of all children of five to fifteen years of age enrolled in maintained and assisted primary and secondary schools will increase from 4-7 million in 1946 to 6 million in 1954, that is, by .. .. .. 27J per cent. 40 per cent. The Australian increase in total enrolments at State primary schools has been assessed by the Commonwealth Office of Education for the period between 1947 and 1954 as .. 46 per cent. 38 per cent. The estimates of school populations for different countries are, of course, comparable only with some reservation. The Australian estimates, for example, take into account the large immigration scheme of the Commonwealth, and are, perhaps for that reason, higher than the New Zealand figures ; but there is also some variation between the Australian States. The figures are, however, reliable enough to show that New Zealand is not alone in having to devote, in the years immediately ahead, an increasing portion of its national resources to the education of its children.

Table A—Total Enrolments

13

(1930-1949 actual; 1950-1960 estimated) Primary. Post-primary. Year (1 July). Total. Public. Private. Public. Private. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 1930 219,446 26,419 29,628 3,897 279,390 1931 222,707 26,448 1 30,739 4,602 284,496 1932 219,018 26,390 30,728 4,512 280,648 1933 205,025 26,097 30,690 4,315 266,127 1934 203,337 26,584 31,231 4,430 265,582 1935 201,694 26,923 32,028 4,743 i 265,388 1936 215,183 27,540 32,581 5,108 280,412 1937 213,878 27,507 32,975 5,595 279,955 1938 211,897 28,271 35,151 6,059 281,378 1939 210,503 27,972 36,260 6,266 281,001 1940 210,318 27,868 35,882 6,379 280,447 1941 210,541 27,836 33,823 6,451 278,651 1942 210,644 26,983 32,947 6,483 277,057 1943 208,861 28,521 35,431 7,184 279,997 1944 209,562 29,223 41,121 8,121 288,027 1945 214,007 29,583 44,732 8,933 297,255 1946 220,401 30,581 45,421 9,424 305,827 1947 232,075 31,929 45,628 9,968 319,600 1948 237,399 32,818 45,565 9,748 325,530 1949 247,049 33,941 46,911 10,243 338,144 1950 255,805 35,135 46,970 10,160 348,070 1951 266,915 36,685 48,390 10,420 362,410 1952 282,900 38,825 50,315 10,800 382,840 1953 296,850 40,650 52,855 11,340 401,695 1954 308,170 42,130 56,750 12,120 419,170 1955 317,845 43,420 60,965 12,910 435,140 1956 326,210 44,715 62,255 13,295 446,475 1957 334,335 45,970 62,020 13,490 455,815 1958 340,960 46,995 63,185 13,725 464,865 1959 345,305 47,685 66,025 14,215 473,230 1960 345,365 47,660 71,460 15,215 479,700

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Table B—Total Enrolments Index Numbers (1930 =100)

14

(1930-1949 actual; 1950-1960 estimated) Year Primary. Post-primary. (1 July). Total. Public. Private. Public. Private. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 1930 100 100 100 100 100 1931 101-5 100-1 103-8 118-1 101-8 1932 99-8 99-9 103-7 115-8 100-4 1933 93-4 98-8 103-6 110-7 95-3 1934 92-6 100-6 105-4 ! 113-7 95-1 1935 91-9 101-9 108-1 1 121-7 95-0 1936 98-1 104-2 110-0 ! 131-1 100-4 1937 97-5 104-1 111-3 i 143-6 100-2 1938 96-6 107-0 118-6 155-5 100-7 1939 95-9 105-9 122-4 160-8 100-6 1940 95-9 105-5 121-1 163-7 100-3 1941 96-0 105-4 114-2 165-5 99-7 1942 96-0 102-1 111-2 166-4 99-2 1943 95-2 107-9 119-6 184-3 100-2 1944 95-5 110-6 138-8 208-4 103-1 1945 97-5 112-0 151-0 229-2 106-4 1946 100-0 115-7 153-3 241-8 109-4 1947 105-7 120-8 154-0 255-8 114-4 1948 108-2 124-2 153-8 250-1 116-5 1949 112-6 128-5 158-3 262-8 121-0 1950 116-6 133-0 158-5 260-7 124-6 1951 121-6 138-9 163-3 267-4 129-7 1952 128-9 147-0 169-8 277-1 137-0 1953 135-3 153-9 178-4 291-0 1 143-8 1954 140-5 159-4 191-5 311-0 150-0 1955 144-8 164-4 205-8 331-3 155-8 1956 148 • 7 169-2 210-1 341-2 159-8 1957 152-4 174-0 209-3 346-2 163-2 1958 155-4 177-9 213-3 352-2 166-4 1959 157-4 180-5 222-8 364-8 169-4 1960 157-4 180-4 241-2 390-4 171-7

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Note.—Enrolment figures preceded by an asterisk (*) refer to assumed numbers of births (1950 to 1955).

Table C1— Public Primary Schools

15

Births. 1950. 1951. 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. Year. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. ! No. Age. No. | Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (V) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) I (W) ( !5) J (16) | (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) 1954-55 *45,000 *34,650 1953-54 *46,000 i ■ ■ ; 1 *5 *35 * 420 6 *37,980 1952-53 *46,000 5 | *35,420 6 *37,980 i *38,720 1951-52 *47,000 1 5 ' *36490 6 *38,810 7 *39,560 8 1 *39,210 1950-51 *47,000 5 1 *36 j 1.90 6 i *38,810 *39,560 8 *39,210 9 | *38,780 1949-50 49,321 5 37 j 980 6 40.730 i 7 1 41,520 8 41,150 9 40,695 10 40,465 1948-49 48,941 5 37,685 6 40,415 - 41.200 • 8 ; 40,835 9 I 40,380 10 40,150 11 40,130 1947-48 49,238 5 37,910 6 40,660 7 41,440 g 41.080 9 40,620 10 I 40,390 11 40,370 12 38,710 1946-47 50.553 5 38,925 6 41,745 7 42,555 8 42,180 9 41,710 ! 10 ! 41,470 11 41,450 12 39,740 13 24,840 1945-46 43,107 • 5 33,i90 6 35,595 7 36,285 8 35,970 9 35,560 10 35,360 I 11 i 35,340 12 33,890 13 21,180 14 9,640 1944-45 39,517 5 30!430 6 32,630 7 33,265 8 32,970 .9 1 32,605 10 32,410 11 32,400 | 12 i 31,060 13 19,410 14 8,840 15 1,880 1943-44 38,019 6 31,395 7 32,005 8 31,720 9 | 31,370 10 1 31,190 11 31,170 12 29,890 ' 13 18,680 14 8,500j 15 1,810 16 230 ] 942-43 33,764 7 28,420 8 28,170 9 27,860 10 27,700 11 | 27.685 12 26,540 13 16,590 i 14 ! 7,550 15 1,610 16 210 17 60 1941-42 39,628 8 33,065! 9 32,695 10 32,510 11 32,495 12 31;155 13 19,470 14 8,860 1 15 i 1,890 16 250 17 70 18 + 70 1940-41 39,126 9 32,280 10 32,100 11 32,080 12 30,760 13 19,225 14 8,750 15 1,870 16 i '240 17 70 18 + 70 1939-40 34,045 10 27,930 11 27,915 12 26,765 13 16,730 14 7,620 15 1,620 16 210 17 70 18 + 70 1938-39 31,925 11 26,180 12 25,100 13 15,690 14 7,145 15 1 1 i 525 16 200 60 17 ! 60 ; 18 + 60 1937-38 30,454 12 23,940 13 14,965 14 6,815 15 1,455 16 190 17 18 + | 60 ■ ■ 1 936-37 29,211 13 14,355 14 6,535 15 1,395 16 180 17 55 18 + 50 1935-36 27,829 14 6,225 15 1,330 16 175 17 55 18 + 50 ;; 1934-35 27,261 15 1,300 16 170 17 55 18 + 50 :: 1933-34 27,292 16 175 17 55 18 + 50 * * 1 1932-33 27,459 17 55 18 + 55 1931-32 28,295 18 + 55 Totals 255,805 266,915 282,900 296,850 308,17o| 317,845 326,210 334,335 340,960 345,305 345,365 1 1 (*36,190) (*75,000) I 1 (*113,790) (*152,170) i (*189,340)

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STote— Figures of enrolment preceded by an asterisk (*) refer to assumed numbers of births (1950-1955)

Table C2— Private Primary Schools

16

Births. 1950. 1951. 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. Year. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. 1 No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. 0) < 2 » (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) 1954-55 *45,000 5 *4,500 1953-54 *46,000 5 *4 >00 6 *4,790 1952-53 *46,000 5 *4^600 6 *4,790 7 *4,880 1951-52 *47,000 5 *4 j 700 6 *4,890 7 *4,990 8 *5,190 1950-51 *47,000 5 *4 j 700 6 *4,890 7 *4,990 8 *5,190 9 *5,540 1949-50 49,321 5 4^930 6 5,140 7 5,240 8 5,455 9 5,815 10 6,045 ]948-49 48,941 5 4,895 6 5,100 7 5,195 8 5,410 9 5,770 10 6,000 11 5,995 1947-48 49,238 5 4,920 6 5,130 7 5,230 8 5,440 9 5,800 10 6,030 11 6,030 12 5,790 1946-47 50,553 5,055 6 5,265 7 5,365 8 5,590 9 5,960 10 6,190 11 6,190 12 5,950 13 3,460 1945-46 43,107 5 4,310 6 4,490 7 4,575 8 4,765 9 5,080 10 5,280 11 5,270 12 5,070 13 2,950 14 1,160 1944-45 39,517 5 3 j 950 6 4,115 7 4,195 8 4,370 9 4,660 10 4,840 11 4,840 12 4,650 13 2,700 14 1,070 15 270 1943-44 38,019 6 3,960 7 4,035 8 4,205 9 4,480 10 • 4,660 11 4,650 12 4,470 13 2,600 14 1,030 15 260 16 40 1942-43 33,764 3,585 8 3,735 9 3,980 10 4,140 11 4,135 12 3,970 13 2,310 14 910 15 230 16 40 17 1941-42 39,628 8 4,380 9 4,670 10 4,855 11 4,855 12 4,665 13 2,710 14 1,070 15 270 16 40 17 18 + 1940-41 39,126 9 4,610 10 4,795 11 4,790 12 4,605 13 2,680 14 1,060 15 270 16 40 17 18 + 1939-40 34,045 10 4,175 11. 4,170 12 4,005 13 2,330 14 920 15 230 16 40 17 18 + 1938-39 31,925 11 3,910 12 3,755 13 2.185 14 865 15 220 16 30 17 18 + 1937-38 30,454 12 3,585 13 2,085 14 '825 15 210 16 35 17 18 + 1936-37 29,211 13 2,000 14 790 15 205 16 35 17 18 + • • 1935-36 27,829 14 755 15 195 16 35 17 18 + 1934-35 27,261 15 190 16 30 17 18 + 1933-34 27,292 16 35 17 18 + 1932-33 27,459 17 18 + 1931-32 28,295 18 + . Totals 35,135 36,685 38,825 40,650 42,130 43,420 44,715 45,970 46,995 47,685 47,660 (*4,700) 1 (*9,590) (*14,480) (*19,570) (*24,900)

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Table C3—Public Post-primary Schools (Full-time Pupils)

2—J 5

17

Birf hs. 1950. 1951. 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. I 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. Year. (1) No. (2) Age. (3) No. (4) Age. (5) No. (6) Age. (7) No. (8) Age. (9) No. (10) Age. (11) No. (12) Age. (13) No. (14) Age. (15) No. (16) Age. (17) No. (18) Age. (19) No. (20) Age. (21) No. (22) Age. (23) No. (24) 1949-50 1948-49 1947-48 1946-47 1945-46 1944-45 1943-44 1942-43 1941-42 1940-41 1939-40 1938-39 1937-38 1936-37 1935-36 1934-35 1933-34 1932-33 1931-32 49,321 48,941 49,238 50,553 43;107 39,517 38,019 33,764 39,628 39,126 34,045 31,925 30,454 29,211 27,829 27,261 27,292 27,459 28,295 ii 13 14 15 16 17 18 + 1 860 9,455 15,545 11,425 6,255 2,640 790 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 + 900 9,860 16,320 11,665 6,250 2,625 770 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 + 960 10,335 17,010 12,245 6,380 2,620 765 ! '' i i2 13 14 15 16 17 18 + ! i ! ' 1 1,100 11,020 17,835 12,765 6,695 2,675 765 ii 13 14 15 16 17 18+) i,iis 12,665 19,020 13,380 6,980 2,810 780 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 + 950 12,830 21,855 14,270 7,320 2,925 815 i • • ii 13 14 15 16 17 18+ 1 j 070 10,930 22,135 16,400 7,805 3,065 850 iz 13 14 15 16 17 18 + ljiis 12,305 18,860 16,605 8,970 3,270 895 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 + 1 j 215 12,790 21,235 14,150 9,085 3,760 950 iz 13 14 15 16 17 18 + M25 13,955 22,075 15,935 7,740 3,805 1,090 ii 13 14 15 16 17 18 + 1 j 385 16,365 24,080 16,560 8,715 3,245 1,110 Totals 46,970 48,390 1 50,315 .. '52,855 1 56,750 60,965 62,255 .. J 62,020 63,185 66,025 71,460

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Table C4— Private Secondary Schools

18

Births. 1950. 1951. 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1 1959. 1960. Year. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. 1 No. Age. No. Age. | No. J Age. No. Age. No. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) 1 (17) (18) (19) (20) (21.) (22) (23) (24) 1949-50 49,321 [ 1 • • .1948-49 48,941 1947-48 49,238 I I ' ' i2 460 1946-47 50,553 i2 475 13 3,105 194.5-46 43,107 i2 *405 13 2,645 14 4,095 1944-45 39,517 i2 '370 13 2,425 14 3,755 15 3,500 1943-44 38,019 i2 355 13 2,335 14 3,610 15 3,370 16 2,500 1942-43 33,764 i.2 3i5 13 2,075 14 3,210 15 2,990 16 2,220 17 1,160 1941-42 39,628 i.2 370 13 2,435 14 ! 3,765 15 3,510 16 2,610 17 1,360 18 + 395 1940-41 39,126 12 370 13 2,400 14 3,715 15 1 3,465 16 2,575 17 1,345 18 + 390 1939-40 34,045 i.2 320 13 2,090 14 3,235 15 3,015 16 2,240 17 1,170 18 + 340 1938-39 31,925 i.2 300 13 1,960 14 3,030 15 2,825 16 2,095 17 1,095 18 + 320 1937-38 30,454 12, 285 13 1,870 14 2,895 15 2,700 16 2,005 17 1,045 18 + 300 1936-37 29,211 13 1,795 14 2,775 15 2,585 16 1,920 17 1,005 18 + 290 1935-36 27,829 14 2,645 15 2,465 16 1,830 17 955 18 + 280 1934-35 27,261 15 2,415 16 1,795 17 935 18 + 275 1933-34 27,292 16 1,795 17 940 18 + 275 1932-33 27,459 17 945 18 + 275 1931-32 28,295 18 + 280 1 :: . . Totals 10,160 10,420 10,800 11,340 12,120 i 12,910 13,295 13,490 1 13,725 14,215 1 15,215

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Note.—Enrolment figures preceded by an asterisk (*) refer to assumed birth numbers (1950 to 1955),

Table C5— All Public and Private Schools

19

Births. 1950. 1951. 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. Year. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. Age. No. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 0) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) | (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) 1954-55 *45,000 5 *39,150 1953-54 *46,000 5 *40 j020 6 *42^770 1952-53 *46,000 5 *40 j020 6 *42,770 7 *43,600 1951-52 *47,000 '5 *40 ,'890 8 *43,700 7 *44,550 8 *44,400 1950-51 *47,000 5 *40 ,'890 6 *43,700 7 *44.550 8 *44,400 9 *44,320 1949-50 49,321 5 42 ,'910 6 45,870 7 46,760 8 461605 9 46,510 10 46,510 1948-49 48,941 0 42,580 6 45,515 7 46,395 8 46,245 9 46,150 10 46,150 11 46,125 1947-48 49,238 5 42,830 6 45,790 7 46,670 8 46,520 9 46,420 10 46,420 11 46,400 12 46,345 1946-47 50,553 5 43,980 6 47,010 7 47,920 8 47,770 9 47,670 10 47,660 11 47,640 12 47,590 13 47,770 1945-46 43,107 *5 37 j 500 6 40,085 7 40,860 8 40,735 9 40,640: 10 40,640 11 40,610 12 40,580 13 40,730 14 38,975 1944-45 39,517 5 34 j380 6 36,745 7 37,460 8 37,340 9 37,265 10 37,250 11 37,240 12 37,195 13 37,325 14 35,740 15 22,210 1943-44 38,019 6 35,355 7 36,040 8 35,925 9 35,850 10 35,850 11 35,820 12 35,785 13 35,920 14 34,375 15 21,375 16 11,485 1942-43 33,764 7 32,005 8 31,905 9 31,840 10 31,840 11 31,820 12 31,775 13 31,905 14 30,530 15 18,980 16 10,210 17 4,465 1941-42 39,628 8 37,445 9 37,365 10 37,365 11 37,350 12 37,305 13 37,445 14 35,830 15 22,275 16 11,985 17 5,235 18 + 1,575 1940-41 39,126 9 36,890 10 36,895 11 36,870 12 36,835 13 36,970 14 35,380 15 22,005 16 11,825 17 5,175 18 + 1,550 1939-40 36,045 10 32,105 11 32,085 12 32,050 13 32,170 14 30,795 15 19,135 16 10,295 17 4,510 18 + 1,360 1938-39 31,925 11 30,090 12 30,055 13 30,170 14 28,875 15 17,950 16 9,645 17 4,220 18 + 1,275 1937-38 30,454 12 28,670 13 28,780 14 27,545 15 17,130 16 9,210 17 4,030 18 + 1,210 • '• 1936-37 29,211 13 27,605 14 26,420 15 16,430 16 8,830 17 3,870 18 + 1,155 1935-36 27,829 14 25,170 15 15,655 16 8,420 17 3,685 18 + 1,110 1934-35 27,261 15 15,330 16 8,245 17 3,610 18 + 1,090 1933-34 27,292 16 8,260 17 3,620 18 + 1,090 • » 1 1932-33 27,459 17 3,640 18 + 1,100 1931-32 28,295 18 + 1,125 Totals 348,070 362,410 382,840 401,695 .. 419,170 435,140 446,475 455,815 464,865 473,230 479,700 1 1 1 (*40,890) (*84,590) (*128,270) (*171,740) (*214,240)

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APPENDIX—NOTE ON THE METHOD OF ESTIMATING THE FUTURE SCHOOL POPULATION GENERAL The school population is the number of children and adolescents enrolled at a given date at public and private primary and post-primary schools. It depends on the number of children and adolescents in the whole population of the Dominion at that date. The school population increases or decreases according to the cumulative number of births in the thirteen-year span from five to eighteen years earlier. The number of children born is reduced by mortality of infants and children, which is very low in New Zealand. The number is increased (or reduced) by net gains (or losses) in external migration of children and adolescents of school age. To estimate the number of school-children of compulsory school age (seven to fifteen years) it is therefore sufficient to consider the number of births in the corresponding earlier years and to allow for losses by mortality and for net gains or losses by external migration. To estimate the number of school-children and students attending primary and post-primary schools, whose ages are either below or above the compulsory school age it is further necessary to determine the proportion of the whole population age group that is likely to be enrolled at a given date. Of the various factors mentioned, the number of births in different years is by far the strongest variable in determining enrolments. Indeed, it was the marked rise in the number of births from the year 1939-40 onwards, resulting in crowded infant departments from 1945 onwards, that drew attention to the expected further increases in school population. DESCRIPTION OP METHOD The school population estimates were based on the observed proportions of school attendance to births in the five years 1945 to 1949 (referred to in the following as base years). These years were most suitable for measuring the factors determining school attendance because the wartime fluctuations in attendance had ceased, and the new school leaving age (raised to fifteen years from Ist February, 1944) was established. The most detailed enrolment records available are for the middle of the school year, the main tabulations of enrolment in the various types of schools in the annual reports being as at Ist July (Tables D and E 1, Age and Classification Tables E 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in E-l, Tables A 17 and D 8 for the Correspondence School in E-2, and Table H 7 for Maori Schools in E-3). To adjust the numbers of births, which the- Government Statistician publishes in the first instance for calendar years (" New Zealand Official Year-Book," 1947-1949 (page 88), and Monthly Abstract of Statistics, Table 3), it was necessary to recast them for years ending 30th June to correspond to the ages given ill the educational enrolment records. Por the years from 1940 to 1949 the quarterly birth figures (published since 1946 in the Monthly Abstract of Statistics) were taken, and the third and fourth quarter combined with the first and second quarter of the following year, e.g.;— Quarter. Number of Births, f I 9,675 Calendar year, 1944 .. 38,107<j jjj 9 513") I TV Q 74-1 I j 9'850 h = 39,517, year ending 30th June, 1945. Calendar year, 1945 .. 41,651<j jjj 10820^ [iV 10,'568 Since the fluctuations in the numbers of births before 1939 were only of a minor nature it was deemed sufficient to use for the years 1931 to 1939 the yearly figures with 49 per cent, falling in the first and second and 51 per cent, in the third and fourth quarters. These numbers of births are given in columns (1) and (2) of the tables C 1 to 5. Por the base years the following two sets of proportions were calculated : (a) The total enrolments in all schools for each age from five to eighteen years and over as percentages of the births recorded for the corresponding years; (b) The attendance ratios for each age at the four main types of schools (i.e., public and private primary and post-primary schools). If these percentages and ratios are considered it will be noted that they show for the base years some variation which is either—(i) A small variation deviating from an average figure, e.g.— 11-12 enrolment percentages: 94-0, 93-78, 94-08, 94-45, 94-31, with a maximum range of 0.67; attendance ratios public primary schools: 86-8, 86-9, 87-1, 86-8, 87-1, with a maximum range of 0-3 ; or (ii) A variation revealing a moderate trend of increase or decrease, e.g.— 5-6 enrolment percentages : 87-64, 85-62, 83-98, 82-28, 84-71.

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In the first case (i) the use of a figure close to the average percentage or average ratio appeared justified. In the second case (ii) it was considered advisable to follow the trend observed in the base years, and for the enrolment percentage or the attendance ratio a figure was used which resembled that for 1949 rather than that for the average of the five base years. Finally, the percentages and ratios were multiplied by each other for each age and each type of school, to yield one factor which as a percentage might be applied at once to the appropriate birth number. The factors are tabulated in columns (7) to (10) of Table D. Examplels-16-year-olds at public post-primary schools in 1957. (a) Enrolment percentages of birth numbers — 1949 .. .. 56-26 1948 .. .. 54-12 1947 .. .. 53-47 1946 .. .. 54-59 1945 .. ..51-57 Average percentage 54-0 ; Percentage adopted = 56-25. (b) Attendance ratios for public post-primary schools —- 1949 .. .. 74-5 1948 .. .. 74-2 1947 .. .. 74-2 1946 •• .. 74-2 1945 .. .. 74-3 Ratio adopted = 74-5 (c) Product of (a) 56-25 and (6) 74-5 over 100 = 41-91. (d) The corresponding birth number for 15-16-year-olds in 1957 is that of 1941-42 = 39,628. By applying the factor (c) = 41-91 per cent, to this number the estimate of 16,605 is obtained. In this way the estimates for the years 1950-1960 were computed for each age and for public primary (Table CI), private primary (Table C 2), public post-primary (Table C 3), and private secondary schools (Table C 4). The summary estimates of the school population in all public and private primary and post-primary schools are given in Table C 5. SPECIAL POINTS TO BE NOTED The method described above, resting as it does on the statistical observation of enrolment percentages and attendance ratios in five base years, and on the combination of these percentages and ratios in one factor, has the advantage that it permits a simple and direct forecast of future enrolments by reference to the births in the corresponding years. It has the disadvantage that, among the variables of infant and child mortality, net gains (or losses) in external migration, ratios of attendance at different types of school, and proportions of school attendance below and above the compulsory school ages, it does not take into account any change that is not indicated in the base years. To this extent the estimates may require adjustments in the light of the behaviour of those variables in later years. Since the estimates are made for individual years of age it remains possible that changes in one age-group may be cancelled out by changes with the opposite effect in another age-group. For example, an influx into primary schools of five-year-olds that increases beyond 87 per cent, of the number of births five years earlier might be offset partly or wholly if less thirteen and fourteen-year-olds attend the primary schools, and more attend the post-primary schools. The following five points should be noted in particular:— (a) To carry the primary-school population estimates beyond 1955—that is, the latest year of known births (1949-50) —it was necessary to assume the numbers of births for the years 1950 to 1955. These figures were marked by an asterisk (thus " * 46,000 "), and it has been assumed that the decline of births after the peak in 1946-47 will continue at a slightly higher rate. The anticipated decline appears justified by the fact that the number of women in child-bearing ages is at present declining. The assumed numbers of births affect about one-tenth of the estimated 1956 primary school enrolment, and their influence increases each year until 1960, when they affect approximately 60 per cent, of the estimated total. Even then, however, the margin of error will not be great, whether it leads to an under-estimate or an over-estimate. (b) Since the Maori school population represents approximately one-tenth of the total school population the reduction in Maori infant mortality (114-92 in 1939, as against 76-67 in 1948 per thousand live births) will probably lead to an improvement in the enrolment taken as a percentage of birth numbers. It is therefore probable that enrolment percentages used for forecasting will gradually become too low by several points, and will result in a slight under-estimation.

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(c) Net gains in external migration of children and adolescents of school age that exceed those of the base years will also raise the enrolment percentages and result in higher figures than estimated. The net gains (permanent arrivals exceeding departures) of children aged five to under fifteen years of age in the four years ending 31st March, 1950, 1949, 1948, and 1947 were 1,342, 746, 563, and 285, whilst in the years ending 31st March, 1946 and 1945, departures exceeded arrivals by 53 and 93 respectively. The figures for children under five years are similar. The external migration gains in the last three years are small compared with the New-Zealand-born school population. Even a marked increase in the next few years would only slightly affect the present estimates. (d) Changes in the ratios of private and public schools, which in the base years show an almost imperceptible tendency for private-school attendance to increase and for public school attendance to decrease for certain ages may require a small correction of the estimates for private as against public schools. A variety of factors, which it would be difficult to assess in advance, may cause such changes. The variation of ratios in the base years, however, is so small that the estimates are not expected to vary much. (e) It has been noted above that the tendency for transfer from primary to post-primary education to take place at an earlier age is discernible in the ratios of the five base years. If this trend continues, it may lead to a slight overestimation in primary-school attendances for these ages, which, however (as has been pointed out above), may be offset by other changes in enrolment percentages. It is improbable that it will lead to a marked underestimate of post-primary enrolment estimates for the next ten years because transfer to post-primary education at an earlier age may be partly compensated for by some pupils completing their courses and leaving rather younger.

Table D—Factors for School Population Estimates, 1950-1960

Approximate Cost of Paper.—Preparation not given ; printing (1,426 copies), £97 10s.

By Authority: E. E. Owen, Government Printer, Wellington. —1950.

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Attendance Ratios. Estimation Factors, Enrolment ] Ages. PerPrimary Schools. Post-primary Schools. Primary Schools, • Post-primary Schools. centages. I Public. Private. Public. Private. j Public. Private. Public. Private. (1) (2) (3) (4). (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 5 .. 87-0 88-5 11-5 77-0 10-0 1 6 .. 93-0 88-8 11-2 82-58 10-42 7 .. 94-8 88-8 11-2 84-18 10-62 8 .. 94-5 88-3 11-7 83-44 11-06 9 .. 94-3 87-5 12-5 82-51 11-79 10 .. 94-3 87-0 13-0 82-04 12-26 11 .. 94-25 87-0 13-0 82-0 12-25 12 .. 94-15 83-5 12-5 3-0 1-0 78-62 11-77 2-82 0-94 13 .. 94-5 52-0 7-25 34-25 6-5 49-14 6-85 32-37 6-14 14 .. 90-45 24-75 3-0 61-75-10-5 22-38 2-71 55-86 9-5 15 .. 56-25 8-5 1-25 74-5 15-75 4-78 0-7 41-91 8-86 16 .. 30-25 2-1 0-4 75-75 21-75 0-63 0-12 22-92 6-58 17 .. 13-25 1-5 72-5 26-0 0-2 9-61 3-44 18+ 4-0 5-0 70-0 25-0 . 0-2 2-8 1-0