J—s

(c) Net gains in external migration of children and adolescents of school age that exceed those of the base years will also raise the enrolment percentages and result in higher figures than estimated. The net gains (permanent arrivals exceeding departures) of children aged five to under fifteen years of age in the four years ending 31st March, 1950, 1949, 1948, and 1947 were 1,342, 746, 563, and 285, whilst in the years ending 31st March, 1946 and 1945, departures exceeded arrivals by 53 and 93 respectively. The figures for children under five years are similar. The external migration gains in the last three years are small compared with the New-Zealand-born school population. Even a marked increase in the next few years would only slightly affect the present estimates. (d) Changes in the ratios of private and public schools, which in the base years show an almost imperceptible tendency for private-school attendance to increase and for public school attendance to decrease for certain ages may require a small correction of the estimates for private as against public schools. A variety of factors, which it would be difficult to assess in advance, may cause such changes. The variation of ratios in the base years, however, is so small that the estimates are not expected to vary much. (e) It has been noted above that the tendency for transfer from primary to post-primary education to take place at an earlier age is discernible in the ratios of the five base years. If this trend continues, it may lead to a slight overestimation in primary-school attendances for these ages, which, however (as has been pointed out above), may be offset by other changes in enrolment percentages. It is improbable that it will lead to a marked underestimate of post-primary enrolment estimates for the next ten years because transfer to post-primary education at an earlier age may be partly compensated for by some pupils completing their courses and leaving rather younger.

Table D—Factors for School Population Estimates, 1950-1960

Approximate Cost of Paper.—Preparation not given ; printing (1,426 copies), £97 10s.

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Attendance Ratios. Estimation Factors, Enrolment ] Ages. PerPrimary Schools. Post-primary Schools. Primary Schools, • Post-primary Schools. centages. I Public. Private. Public. Private. j Public. Private. Public. Private. (1) (2) (3) (4). (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 5 .. 87-0 88-5 11-5 77-0 10-0 1 6 .. 93-0 88-8 11-2 82-58 10-42 7 .. 94-8 88-8 11-2 84-18 10-62 8 .. 94-5 88-3 11-7 83-44 11-06 9 .. 94-3 87-5 12-5 82-51 11-79 10 .. 94-3 87-0 13-0 82-04 12-26 11 .. 94-25 87-0 13-0 82-0 12-25 12 .. 94-15 83-5 12-5 3-0 1-0 78-62 11-77 2-82 0-94 13 .. 94-5 52-0 7-25 34-25 6-5 49-14 6-85 32-37 6-14 14 .. 90-45 24-75 3-0 61-75-10-5 22-38 2-71 55-86 9-5 15 .. 56-25 8-5 1-25 74-5 15-75 4-78 0-7 41-91 8-86 16 .. 30-25 2-1 0-4 75-75 21-75 0-63 0-12 22-92 6-58 17 .. 13-25 1-5 72-5 26-0 0-2 9-61 3-44 18+ 4-0 5-0 70-0 25-0 . 0-2 2-8 1-0