The Wanganui Herald. (PUBLISHED DAILY.) TUESDAY, MARCH 6, 1888. MORE PERMPTORY.

Wanganui Herald, Volume XXII, Issue 6454, 6 March 1888, Page 2

The Wanganui Herald. (PUBLISHED DAILY.) TUESDAY, MARCH 6, 1888. MORE PER MPTOR Y.

We have shown in recent articles Russian's plan to obtain the lead in Bulgarian affairs, -with the object, ultimately, of occupying the country, and so gaining a position from which it will be an easy march to Constantinople. But we pointed out that she was not prepared to fight unless she could dissolve for practical purposes the Triple Alliance. Our view of the situation is exactly confirmed by the most recent intelligence that the Russian Ambassador has delivered a more pressing note from the &:ar to the Porte, which is endorsed by Germany and France, renewing the demand that Prince Ferdinand shall be immediately deposed. Our anticipation that the Czar's admirers would work on the aversion of Bismark to war, has received a curious confirmation. Why is this aversion so marked at the present moment 1 In the first place, the German Emperor is sincerely anxious not to have another war while he lives, and does not like the notion of engaging in hostilities with the Czar, his near relative, for whom he entertains a cordial friendship. Then there is the illness of the Crown Prince, together with his known dislike of war to be taken into account 5 while Bismarck himself, no doubt, wishes to avoid hostilities if possible, hoping that something may turn up to avert the calamity of having on his hands the danger of two inflexible and permanent enemies of Germany in Russia and France. No one has estimated the chances more closely than Bismarck, With him it is not only who would win on the field of battle, but what legacies would be left for future generations.

The Triple Alliance was created at tho instance of German statesmanship as a set-off against a FrancoSußßian coalition. Russia knew very well sb B would be utterl y unable to meet such an alliance even with tho assistance of France, and relying on the well-known pacific disposition or Germany, ahe proceeds by means ot an effective diplomacy to demand the literal fulfilment of the Berlin Treaty. Some days since a demand was made on Turkey as tho suzerain power over Bulgaria, to declare tho election of Prince Ferdinand illegal. It did not appear at the time that Germany would support the demand, and without her neutrality or support we thought Russia would not attempt to enforce it. But since then the scene is changed, and we have the demand repeated in more peremptory terms, endorsed by Germany. This is the latest phase of the situation, and it suggests some speculation as to the course of events which is likely to follow.

Austria is ill satisfied with tho independent line that is being taken by Germany, and accusations are being freely indulged to the effect that the latter is playing a deceitful and selfish part at variance -with the spirit of the alliance. Will the Porte yield? In the last resort — yes, if it is convinced that it will not be supported 'by Germany and Austria. But as we before indicated, the diplomatists of the Sultan lack nothing in acutsness, and they will first ask themselves, "What will take place in case of refusal? Will JEtussia declare war, and will Germany, or Germany and Austria combined, remain passive spectators while there is another rectification of boundaries ? Then if the Porte should pronounce Prince Ferdinand's deposition, we shall have a fresh series of acts in the election of a successor (supposing Ferdinand quietly submits) and another few years of diplomatic interchange of courtesies without any final or settled government in Bulgaria. Germany is watching France, Austria is observing Russia, and the diplomacy of each party is to save itself by creating or breaking alliances according to the interest and exigencies of the hour. It is useless to talk of breach of faith among the Powers. The observance of any code of honour is only kept while it is safe and expedient to keep it. We arc dealing with facts and probabilities based on the opportunities of parties destitute of moral scruples. To talk of the rights of the Bulgarians to govern themselves is only idle sentiment at a time when half a million of men are concentrated and ready to take advantage of any situation it may be considered safe to enter upon. We have not considered the position of Great Britain in the diplomatic conflict, for the simple reason that she does not count for anything at present in the eyes of Russia. She would not fight to maintain her opinions even if she were prepared, and diplomacy in the opinion of the great military Powers is only child's play unless supported by a million bayonets, We think Turkey will yield, and that we shall see the beginning of a fresh game over that disturber of tho peace and repose of nations, Bulgaria.