The Wanganui Chronicle TUESDAY, OCTOBER 12, 1937. UNREST IN JAPAN

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume 80, Issue 242, 12 October 1937, Page 6

The Wanganui Chronicle TUESDAY, OCTOBER 12, 1937. UNREST IN JAPAN

'THE unrest which is reported from Japan is not at all improbable because it fits in with the general internal situation as it has been developing over the last two years at least.

Japan has been fighting an internal as well as an external battle. Despite the unreality of the political control which is exercised by the Japanese people, there has been, and still is, a measure of political expression which it would lie dangerous to frustrate altogether. Japan is, politically speaking, between two worlds, the feudal and the democratic. It is because of the departure from the former and the noil-arrival at the latter that her conduct is so difficult to appreciate.

The political machine has not been representative of the people generally, despite the width of the franchise. On the one hand there have been the naval and military services operating through the Conservative Party, and the large manufacturers operating through the Liberal Party. Neither party has considered the mass very deeply and consequently there is a growing disposition to cry, ‘‘A plague on both your houses! The manufacturers of the heavy industries group have been consistently benefited by the large armaments programmes which the Army has embarked upon in recent years, and this has caused a split in the ranks of the manufacturing classes and has consequently favoured the Army chiefs. But the adventure has gone further than is comfortable, even for the armaments manufacturers, who realise that a failure on the Asiatic continent would spell disaster for the present regime in Japan and would either usher in a Communist or a Fascist economy, neither of which are to be viewed with a quiet mind by the manufacturers themselves. But even without a military disaster the situation might become even more serious for them as a class. The higher wage rates demanded by the people, coupled with heavy taxation and a deteriorating financial position, and a currency which is fast moving downhill, combine to make the outlook black indeed. The line-up of moral forces which has been witnessed in the last few days presages yet another cloud on the Japanese horizon, and this the more threatening of them all. Japan already finds it difficult to finance her imports, but she will be the more embarrassed if she loses her export markets, or even a considerable portion of them. Markets Japan must have to-day, or her position will become one of shipwreck. The United States of America is her major market for silk, and the export of raw silk is essential to the maintenance of her agricultural population. Japanese agriculture, for a variety of reasons, is on an uneconomic basis to-day, and is only preserved from bankruptcy by the raw silk industry. It is for this reason that Japanese economy is so hard hit by an American depression, when the whole of the agricultural population of Japan must have Governmental relief. To finance this relief on a large scale and at the same time finance a war in which a million soldiers are under arms, would be more than the industrial effort of Japan would be equal to.

The Japanese are an intensely patriotic people, but this should not cause the overlooking of the growth of the Social Mass Movement. The Social Mass Party of Japan is now gaining ground in the rural districts, which is a surprise for the Conservative Party, for the peasant farmers have hitherto been staunch in their support of the Army. There is a troubling of the political waters in Japan, and the combined protests and possibly combined action of the United Kingdom and the United States of America, joined with the extension of the boycott from China to India and the Dutch East Indies, will bring one of two results in their train. It may result in the overthrow of whatever is left of the Parliamentary system in Japan, or it may cause a reaction which is immediately so strong that the only possible hope of salvaging the present situation would be for the present regime to bow before the popular demand, curtail the power of the Army and Navy, to dictate foreign policy by creating incidents, and thus forcing the hand of the Government, and reverse the aggressive policy towards China. It is not possible to say whether the Shogunate which now rules Japan behind a false facade of parliamentarism will have the wisdom to capitulate in time, or whether it will risk all on a throw of the dice and seek to enforce an absolute rule upon Japan. The attempt to bring the campaign to a close before the coining of the rains having failed, Japan must now contemplate a severe financial drain on her resources while her home front solidarity shows signs of cracking.