EXPORT STRONG

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume 76, Issue 111, 13 May 1933, Page 15

EXPORT STRONG

BUT PRICES WEAK MARCH PRODUCTION HIGH. A DELAYED PEAK.. * Export figures for March are bigger than expected, and show that the export season did not pass its peak earlier in the year, as had been expected. Instead, March figures are 50 per cent, ahead of March figures of last year. All the main lines of export show big increases in quantity except for frozen mutton. But (in spite of the higher exchange rate as from January of this year) low prices cancel, on the value side, some part of the volume increase. In depressed values butter now takes bottom position. Favourable Signs. “This month’s review,” says the Government Statistician (Mr. J. W. Butcher) in his notes on March (Monthly Abstract of Statistics), “shows more favourable movements in the various business indexes than have appeared for some time. Of course, the imposition of the sales tax and the raising of the exchange rate are factors that exert an upward influence upon certain trends, and this should be borne in mind when considering comparisons with corresponding periods of the previous year. “Bank debits remain higher than usual, and indicate a turnover at least slightly above last month, although compared with March of last year, the influence of the factors mentioned above (exchange and sales tax) must be felt to some extent. Only a slight variation was experienced in the relative movements of advances and deposits and of fixed and free deposits, but such as there was tended to substantiate the favourable trend of last month. “The oversea trade position was considerably enhanced during March, exports recording an unusually large increase, The balance of exports over imports for the month (excluding specie) expressed in terms of Zealand currency amounted to £3,149,000, as against £1,704,000 for the previous month. Expressed in sterling, this was equivalent to £2,519,000 for March and £1,363,000 for February. Movement to Safe Margin. “A remarkable movement is traceable in the Dominion's visible balance of trade during the past two years. This movement is clearly demonstrated in the following table, which shows the balance of trade (excluding specie) in terms of New Zealand currency and in sterling for the twelve-monthly periods ending in each month from January, 1931, to March, 1933.

‘ ‘ From a series of unfavourable balances at the beginning of 1931, with the highest of such balances occurring in February, a gradual improvement has taken place, culminating in the maximum excess of exports for the 12 months ending April, 1932. Thereafter the balance has fluctuated between nine and 11 million pounds New Zealand currency, or eight and 10 millions sterling, until in the last period reviewed the

highest balance of all was reached. “The fact that the unfavourable balances for the 12 months ended March and April, 1931, were greater on a sterling basis than when expressed in New Zealand currency is due to a combination of (1) the successive alterations in the exchange rate, and (2) the unequal distribution of trade over the year. The effect of the raising of the exchange on January 20, 1933, is easily seen in the greater relative increase in the trade balance in the later months in terms of New Zealand currency as compared with sterling.

“The market overseas for the Dominion’s primary produce has been slightly better for wool. The last of the local wool sales registered a favourable trend. Frozen mutton and lamb also maintain a firming tendency, but butter and cheese have reached disastrously low levels. In spite of the serious position of the marketing side of the dairying industry, local production is still creating new records with the help of exceptionally favourable climatic conditions.” The Government Statistician adds that it appeared from the February figures that the export season had passed its peak somewhat earlier this year, but the March figures show -that it had probably only just been reached. The unusually high total (considering the times) of £5,400,000 in value for exports during March was reached, this figure being 47.5 per cent, ahead of February and 50.5 per cent, above that for March, 1932. In considering the latter movement, the influence of the present high exchange rate must not be forgotten. Exceptionally heavy supplies of all tho main primary products were sent forward during March. All the main products, except frozen mut ton, show substantial increases in qualities shipped abroad, but lesser increases in tho total values thereof. Consequently, the per unit values have fallen, and butter now takes the bottom position as far as depressing values arc concerned.

Twelve New Zealand months ended Currency. Sterling. 1931. £ £ January .. . *958,000 *873,000 February *1.800,000 *1,736,000 March .. . . *306,000 *458,000 April *41,000 *228,000 May 1,522,000 1,151,000 June 1,870,000 1,448,000 July 1.881,000 1,448,000 August .. .. 3,511,000 3,032,000 September .. 4,635,000 4,130,000 October .. .. 5,819,000 5,267,000 November .. 6,860,000 6,236,000 December .. 8,453,000 7,695,000 1932. January . .. 8,786,000 7,987,000 February 10,481,000 9,182,000 9,528,000 March .. .. 8,347,000 April 11,539,000 10,490,000 May 10,330,000 9,391,000 June 10,013,000 9.103,000 July 9,847,000 10,866,000 8,952,000 August .. .. 9,879,000 September . . 10,718,000 9,744,000 October . . . 11,335,000 10,304,000 November .. 11,265,000 10,241,000 December 10,964,000 9,967,000 1933. January . .. 11,574,000 10,361,000 February 10,873,000 9,537,000 March .. . 12,451,000 10,628,000 * Denotes excess of imports.