MONTHLY CENSUS

Timaru Herald, Volume CLVIII, Issue 23376, 6 December 1945, Page 4

MONTHLY CENSUS

New Project For Timaru Statistician Quotes Difficulties "At the last census Timaru was credited with a population or 18,2uj. Two aays later me town welcouiea heme in servicemen, ana in the two months since then, ihe proportion oi Durths over deaths nas Deen 72, w.iicii with other aaaiuons to the town s population, has orougnt me total up to 18.487. Am I right ui assuming that thia total is the present population oi Timaru?”

Inis is an extract from a letter which the Mayor (Mr A. E. rf. Hanan) sent to the Government Statistician. Mr Hanan stated that it was his intention to take a fainj accurate census of the borough each month to check on the arrivals and aepartuies irom the town. The fact that the census was taken over a fixea period, irom midnight, September 25 co mtdnignt Decemoer 26. and constituted the “population present,” was mentioned by tne Government Statistician (Mr J. W. Butcher) in his reply. "The absence overseas of Service personnel is, most, fortunately, a rare phenomenon. Since such personnel are drawn almost m exactly the same ration frem every town and rural area in the Dominion, the effects are substantially the same and tnus have little or no effect upon the relative attribution of the population. Ever, town or area may work on the basis of having 3 per cent of its population overseas at the census. “Since the census refers to a fixed point of time, subsequent arrivals and departures do not affect the position. In normal times the Census and Statistics Department maintains annual estimates of the populations of each city, borough, town district, or county. Because of the war these were suspended after 1941, but will be resumed next year. Naturally they reflect the position at the date i April 1), to which they relate. In compiling the estimates, which have proved reasonably accurate in the past, a wide variety of data is assembled and considered. The method of recording the arrivals and departures takes into account the excess of births over deaths, and is, I fear, impracticable in most instances. The excess of births over deaths is in Itself most misleading unless inquiries are made into the individual cases because of such factors as the concen'ration of hospitals and maternity Hospitals in the towns. Of more utii:ficance is the question of arrivals and departures. "Frankly, I do not- know cf any method, practicable under New Zealand conditions, of recording such cases with reasonable accuracy except where such comings and goings .re matters of common interest as in 'he smaller centres. For that reaso. Id Department does not take into ace. tin. at all the excess of birth-, over iea :hs in individual local districts nor loes :: attempt to measure directly the ebb and flow of internal migration i. •' h areas.”

Mr Butcher wished the Mayor . u_ < ,:s with his project, but added a word of caution, derived from long experience, in which he stated that residen's almost invariably tend to overstate ‘he population and the growth of population in their town. One reason was that- new industries, new dwelling . an ! new faces tended to create a much sharper impression than th,- ta erin r off of such industries, fewer av-rac' occupants to the dwelling, or the !■’- pasture of fnrrn-r resident*.