OFT-DEBATED POINT.

Taranaki Herald, Volume LXVI, Issue 16051, 8 February 1918, Page 4

OFT-DEBATED POINT.

“HOW LONG WILL THE AA’AR LAST?” , GENERAL GOURKO’S OPTIMISM. (By General Gourko, the Great Russian leader in the early days of - the war—by arrangement in the Sydney Sun.) Provided the Allies suffer no further untoward set-back like the Russian Revolution, I think the war will bo over in tho autumn of 1918. Although I am very strongly of the opinion that Germany has lost tho war in that she has failed to achieve that which she set out to accomplish, it would he nothing short of disastrous if tho Allies slackened up under the delusion that tlje war was won beyond all doubt. - Tho Russian Revolution has given the- Germans the opportunity successfully to undertake spectacular campaigns as a set-off to the continual pressure on their linos in France and Belgium, Germany is fighting for the future. Tho dramatic landing in the Gulf of Riga, the combined attacks on Italy, and the successful invasion of Roumania last year are all part of a flamboyant project to bewilder their war-weary people with their invincibility. But all these campaigns means nothing. 1 am sure in its heart of hearts the German Command know only too well it has lost tho war. Nothing i.i simpler than to detach an cvcrwholming force to ensure spectacular success. WHEN-HUNS AVILL CRACK. I do not think that German/ will fight on until she is completely crushed. She will continue until such time as defeat is beyond all doubt or until the conquered territories she is now occupying look like slipping from her grasp. Then she will notify hor willingness -to enter into peace negotiations, and with her occupied territories as pawns will say to the conference, “I hold these as security for favourable treatment.” The Allies are not likely to he blinded by such diplomacy. In a way the rapid changing of Germans troops from one front to another is of distinct value to tho Allies. _ It has the effect of beeping the armies of tho Central Empires in a state of continual disorder, although, of coirse, the neutral world is perhaps deeply impressed by the apparently unending sunpl" of troops which Germany appeal's to possess. Nothing is more certain than that this shuffling of divisions represents a, desperate attempt to convince the world that she : s still in a position to concentrate men in any number. RECENT ENEMY SUCCESSES. Whether the Germans imagine they are impressing the Allied commanders with their recent conquests is very doubtful. No great soldier worthy of the name would treat them of any "military value. Rather would he see in them a rat-liko effort to escape from a trap which every day closes around tighter. The remorseless pressure of the French and British armies on the Western front and the enormous preponderance in heavy artillery which the Allies possess make any attempt at an attack there improbable. So expeditions are launched on lonely parte of

the Russian coast in combination with the navy. Such tactics do not impress the people who understand. Thu war is now entering the most difficult phase of all—that of absolute ance. It is for the Allied nations to sc© that they do not crack. Germany believes that she can wear the Allies sufficiently to enable hor to negotiate n pence satisfactory to herself. But that will not do. If a lasting peace As to be maintained Germany will have to be in a position where acceptance of the Allied terms will be an imperative necessity. Pence oh anything like equal terms would be disastrous to us. In 12 months’ time Germany will probably have had enough of fighting. Her efforts up to date have hern superhuman and worthy of a 40 years’ preparation. With losses proportionate to those of the last year, the German man power will have, reached a very low rhb. Germany wants peace badly ; all the signs point to tha.t. ■ But the Allies will appreciate to the full the impossibility of treating with a nation flushed with cheap conquest.