THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

Taranaki Herald, Volume LIX, Issue 143674, 19 December 1911, Page 2

THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

me. MASSEY CAN CARR Y’’ON. (Special to Herald.) WELLINGTON, Dec. 18. There is little that is new in regard to tho political situation, except that a great many people who have been hitherto, supporting tho Government are already swinging round. Quite a number of these have congratulated individual members of the Opposition, and now think that a change of Government will do good. The opinion that Mr. Massey will be able to carry on is gaining ground daily, especially as s.'gns of internal dissension are becoming evident in the Government Party. One Liberal member says that Sir Joseph Ward must go, and that Mr. Millar must take his place as the leader of the now Opposition. His argument is that it is Sir Joseph Ward and not the party that is unpopular in tho country'. In this, however, he would seem to be in error. Except in Canterbury and in AVcstlaud the party was decidedly unpopular in the country, and even in Canterbury there are at least signs of change. It is expected that at least three members on the Liberal side will before very Jong, be , found voting with the Opposition, and it is pointed out that there is no reason why they should not do soj seeing that Sir John Findlay himself in one of his most recent speeches stated that there was practically no difference in policy between the Government and the Opposition. ■ If three members swing round this would mean a difference of six votes against tho present Government. An attempt is being made by disappointed journals, whose predictions were woefully out, to prove by the figures that tho Opposition has not a majority of the voters in tho country on their side, but the er.so is not stated fairly. When it is remembered that the Opposition votes in Otaki, AYanganui and Grey Lynn were given to Labour candidates on the second ballots, and that in other cases the Opposition had no candidates in tho field at all, the fallacy of this line of argument becomes evident. If an election could be held to-morrow with a representative Government and a representative Opposition candidate in the field in all the constituencies, there can be not the least doubt that the Opposition would secure a large preponderance of the votes. But in any- case it is no use counting irp the total votes, because our representation does not go on those lines. In other words, the-,Dominion is not one. electorate. Lpder this system of calculation it would be possible for the Opposition to have a majority of votes over an area of' seven-eighths of the country and yet to lose that majority, if the figures of one district like Canterbury were included. Such solace as may be got from elementary calculations of the total votes, generally inaccurate, may salve the wonnned feelings of tho discredited prophets, but cannot alter the country’s mandate. That tho Reform Party should capture so many of the enemy’s strongholds with their much smaller army and at other disadvantages on tho battle ground is the greatest tribute that could be paid to Mr. Massey, tho Reform general. It proves conclusively that the country has a strong belief in him, ami there is ample evidence that its faith in him is increasing day by clay. Leading members of his party see no reason why he should not carry on the government of tho country, and carry it on much more satisfactorily than it has been carried on for many years past. Mr. AA'. Fraser returned to Wellington to-day. He was quite sure of victory several days before the poll. The reports of his opponent’s meetings were greatly exaggerated in several of the newspapers. Air. Frasev, flow ever. made no complaint on that score. Such tactics do no good. Mr. Dive, the tx-member for Egmont, was in town to-day. He says his_ defeat was due to the idea that the Minister for Agriculture would bo able to get the Opunakc Railway constructed. There was also a great distribution of Agricultural Department literature throughout the constituency. Sir John Findlay has resigned from the Executive, and will re-engage in the practice of the law in Wellington,