THE COLONIST. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. FRIDAY, MAY 7, 1915. RUSSIAN VIEWS ON THE DURATION OF THE WAR.

Colonist, Volume LVII, Issue 13771, 7 May 1915, Page 4

THE COLONIST. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. FRIDAY, MAY 7, 1915. RUSSIAN VIEWS ON THE DURATION OF THE WAR.

As a contribution to Ihe somewhat futilo discussion on the probable duration of the war comes a confident dedaraiion by Coi.mol Shnmsky. a famous Russian mHilary expert, that this year wi.'l see cho end of the Titanic struggle; His view is .suppoi'ted by other Russian authorities, one of whom, v.rituu, in the "Daily Express," ad-van..-iv> some interestinp; reasons for disagreeing with the foremost experts of the Vvesterr. Allies on tho subject. The <nos l. skilful mauoei.yrin^ in wie liatttoiieid in -» modeJ-n war would be always secondary to the moral superiority of tho arn\ and th<* nation con-j cerriP-i ac well as the equipment and the number of is-qops. The preponderance of men is a" most important factor in tho present war, and in this lies the real superiority * t-he Allies over their enemies. Clausewitz himself has acknow edged this avd in iiis books it is premised that "the number of fighters pressures the victory; superiority of presages the victory; superiority of forces is itself a base of victory in wo can say that the formula "supevi rity 1 ft-forces" was, the mam base of the creators of th/ txevman plan of campaign. It is stated that Yon Moltke once saii'. "We must concentrate the most numerous forces, find the enemy,and by the preponderance of our troops, eefe.it mm utterly.'' The Germans adopted these doctrines. They •adopied special laws two years before the var to increase the army as much as possible, and when war broke out they found the rimes of their enemies, but. they failed to defeai them. The enemy's" only chance of victory, say the lUis3<an experts is for the German aud Austrian armies greatly to increase the number of their forces. Until the present war, nobody supposed that Landsturm or Territorial forces could play such an in portant role on the battlefields. The i-.ws concerning the recruitment of secondary troops of all the countries fixed thsir role only for -erving in ILo rear and for use 1 1 secondary operations of small importance. The Bakan wars have shown that vi the mor^ut of need a natio-i can attain an e-;treire tension in »e----gard to the recruitment of its forces. The gallant Serbians.have sent to the front; 15 per cent, of the whole population, a circun.stance which has never liappened before anywhere. Basing our calculations on this example, we can j.ssi.me that bixtv-fi>:o millions of Germans were able to mobilise 9,000,----000. Tho sources of the reserve, of cour c, iuive tJioir limit. This has always been known; but e.'cn at the time of the Russo-JapaPf*e War, the divisions formed from the resex-vi&ts were counted as troops unable "to entrusted with independent and ijnportant operations.- The Germans formn'rf twenty-five army corps from reservists not more than thirty-t.vo years of age. Older reservists were to be used only to replace losses and for service n: the rear. During the first six months of the war, the German army, according to Russian information, lost 2,000,000 of ite best men. These have been replaced by men of the Landsturm. It is clear, therefore, that the German army in these circumstances has been getting steadily worse in regard to military quality. In six months of training even the Germans, who possess tho educational qualification for the " army m larger measure than the .people of any country in the world, could only succeed in putting in the field good infantry, medium cavalry, and very bal o-unners. And it must be pointed out That even if the German artillery losses have not been considerable, the losses of German cavalry have been enormous, especially on the western front,;, and without well-trained cavalry ' modern warfare is impossible. The German army corps had hitherto been composed of two divisions, while the army corps of the other countries have a'ways had three divisions. Now Germany also has formed her army corps of three divisions, and the ■ third is a Landsturm. The German army, by Alrs system, would be increased one-and-a-half times .The remaining reserve, > however, is not much more +han_; 2 000,000 men, and, argue the Russian oxnerte, a few months of severe cam paioninr will so exhaust Germany's resources that she will experience ever greater difficulty in making good hsr losses. . j