POLL POSSIBILITIES.

Sun (Christchurch), Volume I, Issue 262, 9 December 1914, Page 2

POLL POSSIBILITIES.

TO-MORROW'S CHANCES. VIEWS FROM THE CENTRES. (Sun Special.) • WELLINGTON, . Decembei' 9. There are few'foregone t conclusions in the electorates ' in the Wellington area, and the campaign lias been marked by a. good deal of heat. A feature of the relations between the candidates and the people has been the rowdiness at nearly all the meetings held by prominent members of the Government, especially those of Messrs .Herdman and Fisher. Plenty of prophets foretell, a change of Government. One of the keenest fights will be in Wellington Central, where Labour has joined forces with the Opposition, and is very confident of success. One prominent member of the Labour Party goes so. far as to say that v he' believes Mr Fletcher will have a majority of .1000 or 1500. The Government is also quietly confident. It is stated that Mr Fletcher polled heavily as the .official Liberal candidate among the forces at. Trentham, but Mr Fisher, it is said, had ver3 r long support from the troops at Samoa. The whole position is most interestingly doubtful.

Mr Herdman will probably haye little 'difficulty in Wellington North, where he is opposed by Messrs Turnbull (Opposition) and Holland (Social-Demo-crat). Wellington South looks promising for the sitting member, Mr Hindmarsh. He would have put up a big fight in any ease. With Mr R. B. Williams and Mr J. P. Luke both supporting the Government, his chancy seems almost a certainty. The Government will probably secure the Suburbs seat, where Mr Wright's oppouents are split between Fitzgerald (Opposition) and Moore (Labour). Trouble has been caused here by Sir Joseph Ward's selection of Mr Moore as the candidate to receive the Liberal votes of the Expeditionary Forces.

In Wellington East it is very probable that Dr Newman will -retain the seat. It is somewhat doubtful; if Mr McLaren has the same hold as when lie last contested it.

In the Hutt campaign Mr Samuel, hitherto unknown in the political world, is reported to have put up a remarkably good fight in the circumstances, but it is very doubtful if he will be found close to Mr Wilford when the count is made.

A clear run between Messrs Field a,nd Robertson for the Otaki seat at . las£ election would ha,ve resulted in Mr Field's return, but: bis change to the Reforni Party lias lost him many supporters. His selection as "the official Reform candidate in preference to Mr Byron Brown has piqued many of the latter's supporters, who openly state their. intention to vote for the Labour candidate, Mr Robertson. Notwithstanding that matters are mosl complicated at Palmerston with four candidates, two of whom are .Government men, it is very difficult to forecast the result, though Mr Buick's heavy pollings before suggest the. likelihood of his success."

Pahiatua is regarded as fairly safe for the Reform candidate! Mr Matthews (Liberal) has had some good j meetings, one of which jcarried a vote i of no-confidence in the' Government, but j Mr Escott is likely to have a comfortable margin. / ■ The Opposition candidate for Wai-J marino (Mr B. ;W. Smith) is likely. . tp?| get in between, again. . ; " ; ■ ;j At Oroua, Mr Guthrie is on the big ; leg of the stool. j : Mr E. Newman is believed to hold Rangitikei fairly safe. Mr C. A. Wilkinson, for Egmont, is hardly likely to go (Jut before the onslaught of Mr Astbury's Opposition j voters. .

At Patea the Liberals are displaying confidence in the return of Mr Morrison, though Mr Pearce is certain to poll heavily. Stratford is not likely, to put out Mr Hine, nor Taranaki to desert Mr Okey. The Wairarapa seat will probably go to Sir W. Buchanan, who is fighting again his old opponent, Mr J. T. M. Hornsby. Both sides are very confident, but the veteran's announcement, that this is his final candidature will probably be sufficient to ensure his return.

In Masterton Mr Sykes has a big following, but there will be a big sympathy vote for Mr Hogg. It is possible the latter may top the list. Wanganui presents a triangular fight in which the Government has considerable confidence in the vigorous Mr Pirani. Mr Veitch (sitting Labour member) and Mr Hogan (Opposition member) should both poll well. Taumarunui lias two Government candidates, and though Mr Shortland has not been taken very seriously he may poll enough to make Mr C. K. Wilson's position difficult, if not rob him of victory.

IN THE FAR NORTH. SOME POSSIBILITIES. (Sun Sppcial.) AUCKLAND, December 9.. As the result of voters' opinions in the' Auckland province, expressed at the ballot box in the 19il elections, the Liberals had to chew some of their most bitter reflections, and it is to the 1914 elections thati the Liberals look with hope to recover much of tlieir lost prestige. The hope is human, and natural, and had they kept their powder dry, or in other words, organised, there would have been excellent logic for the optimism, but as far as the Auckland province is concerned the Liberal organisation has been a dismal and almost negligible quantity. The Government is bound to lose seats in the north, and it is doubtful if they will win any. This is partly the result of a return to balance of the political pendulum, which swung beyond all expectation in 1911, and partly to that undefinable wave in popular opinion which to-day carols the name of Ward in the streets and lanes- with eyeiji louder voice than it did the name of Massey in 1911. It may be an idle and noisy bubble, which will be pricked by the pen of the silent voter on election day, btilfc for the reason of it, and the absencieof an interpreter to the dumb alphabet, a reJir able pre-cast is a difficult and -' delicate propostion.. _ ! Dr Buck should win the Bay of Islands on paper, but for racial . reasons and native lai?d questions they have preju. L dices in that electorate, 1 fpr which reason Mr Wilkinson' may score rdr Reform." If Mr Coates loses Kaipajra, the populatwave will be more than a pigment. In.Marsden the veteranjßeformer, "Mr Frank Mail dor, will have ariose call from Mr Purdie, whom he beat by - 500-odd votes in 1911. v | \

Polling' will be close in fWaitemata, but the strong Reform vote will probably send back Mr Harris. • j f

Eden is a cake-walk forpVfr Parr, with two Oppositionists in the. field. .

Grey Lynn is anyone's chance, as all three candidates will poll well. A strong prohibition polling may give the margin to Mr Fowlds.

In Auckland Central and East, Messrs Glover aud Myers need lose no sleep. Mr- Poole is a practical certainty for West against Mr Braduev, his vanquisher of 1911.

Fame}] will be close, Mr Sullivan havfighting chance of outing Mr the Reform occupier. The old Speaker, Mr Lang, is having a chequered run in Manukau, buthis popularity should upstay the challenge. Franklin's loyalty to the Premier will not be.seriously tested, nor in the writer's opinion will Mr R. F. Bollard be ousted from Raglan, likewise the genial Minister for Railways is safe enough in His Tauranga trenches. At Thames, Mr Rhodes will probably succumb to his old opponent, Mr E. H. Taylor. The Waikato contest will be keen and probably close, but Mr Young has been a diligent nurse and should find a place in the nineteenth Parliament. Mr H. Poland is considered comfortable for the Ohinemuri seat. ROUND ABOUT GiSBORNE. TWO CLOSE CONTESTS. {Sun Special.) <*ISBORHE, December 9. With polling day fast approaching, it is possible to forecast the fate of the local seats. * The contest for the Gisborne seat lias been a keen one, but tiiere has beep no ■hitting below the belt, and the sight (yesterday of the two principal opponents, Sir Jas. Carroll (Liberal) and Mr Harry Delautour (Reform) riding together in the latter's motor car is characteristic of the spirit in which they have fought .out a hard battle. It is a big job for even so popular a young Reformer as Mr Delautour to oust Sir Jas. Carroll from the seat which he has held tenaciously for twenty-one years, but it is generally agreed that Sir James is far from; safe, and it will be no' surprise if- he is beaten by his more vigorous and youthful opponent. ;! In the Bay of; Plenty (.electorate, Mr R, S. Williams.; (Reform) is expected -,to give Mr W. D. 8. Macdonald a good, wholesome fight, bttt " Boundary Bill" is immensely popular in the inland districts. If he loses the seat it will be because he has perpetually whined Jlis way through the electorate, decrying Mr Massey and all his works, and doing nothing else, until even very strong partisans have"become disgusted.

IN THE SOUTH. GOVERNMENT MAY LOSE SEAT; (Sun Special.}, DUNEDIN, December 8. There are fifteen constituencies in Otago and Southland counting in Waitaki, and for- only two of these seats are there more than two candidates in "the field—Dunedin West,; where a Labour man has come out,; and Chalniers, where a representative has - Mr Lee hasbattled with * his usual energy in Qamaaru, and notwithstanding the strong opposition offered by Mr Maepherson and his committees, fiarticulajrly the committees, it is not be defeated." In. Otago Central, Mr Scott stands a phaneeL of losing his seat. Mr known resident of the Alexandra portion of. the ! district, has worked might, and main., to oust him, and it is quite on: so. ' Dunedin North wilt probably retain' Mr G. M. Thomson by a substantial, majority. Dunedin Central will vote strongly in favour of Mr Munro, the Social-Demo-crat, .whose chances of beating Mr Statham are said to be very rosy. Mr W. D. Stewart is generally regarded as a certainty for Dnnedin West. Mr Sidey has an easy task before him to win Dnnedin South. "

For Chalmers, Mr Dickson, will probably top the poll. Mr Mason will, secure strong support, especially at Port Chalmers, but his chances are to some extent spoiled by theHhird man, who will, split the Liberal vote. Clutha will go to Mr Malcolm again, but Mri Jenkinson will, from all accounts, be well up to him at the elose of the event.

The- two Ministers of the Crown possessed by Otago, the Hon. Mr Allen and the Hon. Mr Eraser, will' find tli'emselves at the top of the poll hi their resjjective districts. Mr Fraser will get there -somewhat easily, but Mr Allen has strong party opposition,- and will not have the margin that his colleague will have.

The contest- between Mr Anderson and Mr Mehaffy is the cause of much speculation, but the former seems to have the "better grip of the district. Mr J. C. Thomson is expected to keep the Wallace seat.

Mr Hanan is a moral for Invercargill. Summing,up, therefore, and not making any allowance for the vagaries -of the ballot-box; it appears likely thai the .southern end of the Dominion will send , to Parliament nine Government supporters and six followers of the Leader of the Opposition. In the last Parliament. Mr. Massey had ten. supporters from Otago and Southland. I CHRISTCHURCH NORTH, MR TOOQOOD'S PROGRESS. / ; No candidate could have received a more warmly cordial reception than was accorded at the Rugby Street Schoolroom last evening to Mr H. F. Toogood, Government candidate for the Christchurch North seat. People who arrived at the -.building five or even ten minutes before the advertised time of the meeting found that the hall was already packed. Consequently many had to stand, although even the stage was used to give aecommodatioxT to many of those who had failed to find vacant seats in the body of the hall. When Mr Toogood stepped . on to .the platform there was salvo after salvo of applause. It was, too, a splendidly attentive crowd. . Interjections were comparatively few. What there were came printively few. What there were came principally from only two sources —one a young in an whose mind seemed obsessed by the Huntly disaster, and the other two 01* three men who were in the centre of a group standing in the main doorway. The rest of the people were enthusiastic for tibe candidate. ] .Mr Toogood gave a telling address, clear and vigorous. Amongst the reasons which, he gave for his support of the' Massey Administration w.ere the liberalisation of the old age pensions: its reform of the Civil Service, from | whidh political, patronage luid been baiii ished; it? better system of finance; the [ fact that it was a better employer than the x>ld "Liberal" Administration (it had given better wages and improved conditions to railwaymen, police, seiiooli teachers, and others); its extension of (the workers' homes scheme (the.old ad-

ministration had provided 205 of tliese homes in six and a half years, whereas the Massey Government had built over 300 in two and a half years, and by next year there would be 350); and its progression in advances to settlers and to workers generally. A reference to the Huntly disaster brought from Mr Toogood the whole truth of that matter, as shown by the report of the Commission of Enquiry. In the course of this, the speaker referred to the fact that Mr Reed, Inspecting Engineer of Mines, had not been in the Taupiri mines for three years. '' Mr Reed had no power to go into the mine! " cried the young man already mentioned. Mr Toogood: "And who appointed an inspecting engineer of mines but gave him no right to go into the mines?" Cries of ' 1 Ward." The Young Man: Don't bring Ward into it. I didn't mention Ward. Mr Toogood: I can't help my friends telling you the truth. You are caught in your own trap, Sir. (Applause.) Dealing with the way in which the Huntly disaster, matter had been: presented to the people by his opponent, Mr Toogood said:—-"You have - been told by the other side only a half-truth, and not' the whole truth.. I characterise a half-truth in very strong terms, and not, to my mind, as Christian ethics." (Applause.) Other matters dealt witli included the cost of living, education, reform'of the Legislative Council—in dealing with .this subject the candidate showed clearly that it was the old "Liberal" Party which prevented reform of the Upper House—proportional representation, defence, and the policy of -the. Mas'sey .Government. After Mr Toogood finished he ealled fox* questions. Those asked dealt- principally with matters referred to in the address. A vote of thanks and confidence was carried with, acclamation. The meeting broke up with three hearty cheers for the, candidate. Someone then ealled ft>r cheers for Sir Joseph Ward, but only two or three groans formed the answer. MR It. M. ISITT. Mr L. M. Isitt, Liberal candidate ;f or Chnstchurch North, addressed three open-air. pieetings last: evening, a yote of thanks and* confidence being carried! at ieaeli. He said that in insisting'oil holding the elections at the present time Mr Massey had tried to draw a red herring across his sins of omission and commission, : and to make political capital of the "don't swap horses" order out of'the war situation. Mr Massey was-only a road board politician, but he had the effrontery to say that it was essential that the only m,an: who had a really good grip of Imperial affairs should not be allowed to take the reins of office at present. The Government had fulfilled none ,of its pro-, mises with regard to financial: reform. The Governiqent's borrowing ready colossal,\ and yet'=Mr Allen now asked for authorisation for loans totalling £1O;4OG,OO0, outside the war loan of £2,000,000. His only excuse was that it might "be- necessary to spend it all at oiice. • SOUTH. Yesterday, Mr F. B. Hughes put. up a record by addressing five meetings-

He spoke at the Addington Workshops at midday, and received an excellent hearing. Early in the evening he addressed two meetings of nurses, and his address was well received. Afterwards he addressed a crowd of 250 at the corner of Fairfield Avenue and SelWyn Street, and had an excellent meeting. At 8 o'clock he addressed a meeting of about 400 at the corner; of Redruth Avenue and • Strickland Street. This was one of the. most orderly and most representative meetings the - candidate has had during Ms campaign. He received a hearty vote of thanks for his address. MR H. G. ELL. Mr H. G. Ell, candidate for Christehureh South, addressed six meetings yesterday, two in the day and four in the; evening. . At all his meetings, Mr Ell: had a good hearing, and votes of thanks and confidence were carried. The candidate traversed the/history of Liberal legislation in order to show thai the: party was; not a friend of the capitalists, as had been alleged. He waa in favour of the increase ■ in th e Customs duty • on - luxuries,- -with- a correspondittg reduction- on -the necessaries of life. If. it were-found that farmers were holding-back wheat it'should be taken from them and a fair price paid for: it. MB G. ®. WHITIKG. Mr G.- R. Whiting, Labour candidate for Christchurch South, addressed; three meetings last evening. He accorded a hearty reception at all three, and votes of thanks and confidence . were carried. At noon Mr Whiting addressed a meeting at the Addingtoit Work shops, where three cheers were given for Labour. AVON. MB H. D. ACLAND. Mr H. D. Aeland, the Reform- candidate for Avon, a very well attended meeting in the Presbyterian

Hall, New Brighton, last evening. The chair was taken by Mr Ashley, and the candidate received quite a flattering reception. Mr Aclarid trenchantly criticised the partisan attitude of some newspapers, and roundly condemned the distortion of facts to suit party purposes indulged in by sections of the Press. He quoted several instances,of having been misreported=: &n4'"Msrepresented during v the campaign. The subject of proportional representation was one of the questions upon whieh statements had been misrepresented. He had. said that >. this system of voting was not nearly so • simple as it appeared, and that able writers had pointed out that it would have the effect of returning to Parliament membe¥.%,who were ;; extremists - upon Various:; q&jstionsu . They Tyould then we without: Mandate frdra;. the people upon m^^v^u6i^qns r : gaining would • . had ridiculed :bttt distorted ; his remarks by making him say that the - bargaining would; be among the candidates before the election. Continuing, the speaker dealt exhaustively; with taxation,;'aJul"''refuted--: the Opposition statements that taxation had been largely increased. He showed .how the position. had been affeeted by land and incometaxes and death duties.. One Canterbury estate -• this yearwould in death duties, which would have the effeet raising the taxation figures by 4/- per ; head. It Wbuld be quit® unfair to saddle ; this on to ariy> Government..; Mr Acland . spoke ms&hly :upon the lines of previous addresses in regard 1 to future legislation. v . : After the candidate had answered question? for over aft hour, to. the satis-. : faction .of the audience, - Mr 1 Telford i said that for twenty-five years- in New Zealand he had listened to almost every one of our promiheht politicians, but never had he heard a more liberal expression of political principles than Mr Acland had given thein. His speech demonstrated that he was an advanced thinker and one of the best candidates , standing throughout the whole ! of the Dominion. (Applause.) Mr: Acland"did not aim to set class.• against class, but worked for the benefit of' the masses. , Above all, he recognised the rights of the working man. He moved a vote of ; thanks and. -confidence in -Mr Aeland.This was seconded by, Mr Aldridge. - " [ An amendment expressing no 'confi-' denee in -the Government only found, half a dozen supporters, and the rilotjlon was carried with enthusiasm; - MR G. W. RUSSELL. ' Mr G. W. - Russell,.; Opposition candi- ' date for Avon, 'helcl three-meetings last ' evening, at.which he spoke-ineriticism.... of the Government's war poliey. He also dealt with- other questions of interest. At each -meeting a vote of thanks and confidence was carried. - ME D. G. SULLIVAN. Mr D. G. Sullivan,-Social-Democratic candidate for Avon, ' also addressed - three .meetings," receiving unanimous-, votes of' thanks -and confidence.. At. two. other meetings* addresses, were delivered by Messrs J. McCullorrgh and" R. M. Speirs respectively in the interests of Mr. Sullivan r s-candidature. (Continued on page 5.) •