PROSPECTS OF ELECTION

Southland Times, Issue 24524, 27 August 1941, Page 4

PROSPECTS OF ELECTION

FUSION OF PARTIES UNLIKELY IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR MR FRASER (Special) WELLINGTON, August 26 “If the Prime Minister keeps to his plans he should be back in New Zealand in the second week in September, said the acting Prime Minister (the Hon. W. Nash) tonight when discussing the arrival in the United States of Mr Fraser. Alter leaving England on his trans-Atlantic flight, Mr Fraser was delayed for more than a day in Ireland. By the time he returns to New Zealand he will have made one of the most varied round-the-world air voyages. Leaving New Zealand by air he travelled to Australia and India. A deviation from the regular route was made between India and Egypt after the revolution in Iraq. After inspecting New Zealand troops in Egypt Mr Fraser flew from Cairo to Khartoum and across the African continent to Lagos. It is not known what happened then, but Mr Fraser flew back from the Gold Coast to Khartoum before flying to England. He has now crossed the Atlantic by air, and when he returns to New Zealand he will have made the longest flight ever undertaken by a Prime Minister. TWO IMPORTANT QUESTIONS On his return to New Zealand. Mr Fraser will have to decide two political issues of paramount importance to the electors. The first is: Will there be a National Government? The second is: Will there be an election? They are questions to which answers must be found. The acting Prime Minister has already promised that a statement will be made by Mr Fraser on the floor of the House and as the day of the return to the Dominion of the Prime Minister approaches interest in the questions is certain to increase. The indications are that the House will not conclude its business for the third session until the end of September. It cannot sit beyond November 1 without an. extension of its life being granted by amendment to the Electoral Act. In the next few weeks the Government will have to decide to form a National Government or not or to hold a general election. In parliamentary circles it is agreed that an election can be deferred only because of the gravity of the situation overseas or the Government’s preparedness to declare that it will extend its own term because of the possibility that the Dominion’s war effort will be further disrupted by holding an election. The formation of a national government, it can be stated definitely, is not a possibility at the moment. The schism between the Government and the Opposition has widened since the session began in March, and unity is further away than at any stage in the past 12 months.

OLIVE BRANCH IGNORED At the time when the Opposition was holding out the olive branch some Government members contemptuously ignored it and persisted in making petty politics the theme of their speeches. For a time the Opposition was restrained, but domestic political feeling has come to the surface again in the debates. The Government’s feelings, were expressed when Mr Nash made his reply to the Budget debate on July 31. He then said that with some reluctance and humility he had to say he could not see that a national government would be possible and that it was on account of what the Opposition had done in the last six months that it was next door to impossible to have a national government. More recent events in the House are unlikely to have softened the feelings which Mr Nash then expressed, and it has to be remembered that when Mr Fraser returns Mr Nash will be the Minister most closely associated with him in conference to express the views of Labour members. On the question of an election Mr Nash then said that if the Leader of the Opposition joined the War Cabinet there would be a better chance of unity in the country.

FURTHER INVITATION UNLIKELY Mr Holland has not joined the War Cabinet; in fact no invitation since that given him when he was appointed Leadei- of the Opposition has been extended and no one closely associated with politics today can see an opening for a further invitation to him. In the first place Mr Holland’s acceptability to the rank and file of the Labour Party would have to be determined. The second point is whether, in view of all that has passed within his own party and in Parliament, Mr Holland could accept War Cabinet ministerial rank. When discussing the War Cabinet in the open, Mr Holland has admitted that when he was appointed Leader of the Opposition he was invited to join the Cabinet, but he declined because he felt that he would be leg-ironed. It is recalled that one of the main arguments used by the Opposition when it decided on a change of leadership was that the Hon. Adam Hamilton could not be a member of the War Cabinet and at the same time efficiently lead the National Party in the House and in general politics. The invitation given to Mr Holland has not been repeated, and it is undeniable that the debates in the House have not contributed towards any easing of the tension between the parties. CABINET AGAINST FUSION The Cabinet, minus Mr Fraser, is reported to have decided against a fusion of the parties, and although some members of the Labour Party hold the belief that the Prime Minister on his return from Britain will endeavour to convince the caucus that a national government must be formed, every indication is that such a proposal will meet with very stiff opposition. The hesitancy noticed in the party a few months ago in facing the question of a national government has disappeared. The organizations outside the parliamentary party have declared in the main their opposition to any fusion with the National Party, and a stiffening of the attitude of the caucus has resulted.

Taken as a whole the Labour Party is not prepared to join with the National Party because of extreme fundamental differences on domestic policy, although the sincerity of both parties in contributing to the war effort is shared alike. Mr Nash’s views of a month ago are now being heard repeated by Labour members. A point strongly made by them is the contention that the Opposition is not sincere in its precepts of unity and that the National Party in the House has no unity. Since Mr Holland was elected leader at least six members of the Opposition have openly shown their disinclination to work whole-heartedly with the party, and it is said that only the aloofness of the Rt. Hon. J. G. Coates from party politics has prevented a split. It was no secret that when Mr Coates returned from his defence purchasing mission to America overtures would be made to him to lead a group of old Reform members of the House. Whether the overtures were made to Mr Coates is not known, but this much is known:

Mr Coates has no interest in party politics. NOT WORKING GMOOTHLY Meanwhile, the feelings of some members of the Opposition to the present leadership have become too open to escape attention. As n team the Opposition has not functioned smoothly during this session, and it is clear that some control will be needed if its members are to work in as cogs in the political machine. Although much will depend on Mr Fraser’s views and their influence on his caucus, the prospects at the moment are that an election will be held and that the campaign will not extend beyond three weeks. The only reason that can be advanced at present for any extension of the life of Parliament discarding altogether the possibility of a national government being formed, is that the holding of a general election would so raise feeling in the community that the nation’s war - effort would be disrupted. On the other hand it is fredly said that the gulf between sections of the community is so wide that a deeper breach would not be made by an election and that the political situation would be clarified by giving the electors an opportunity of deciding on the Government for the next three years. Antagonism is expressed by sections of the Labour Party to any extension of the life of the present Government, particularly after the attacks made six years ago on the Coalition for extending its life. Only fear of disruption in the community and a gravs development in the war situation can. it is believed, result in a postponement of the election.