FAR EAST PROBLEMS

Southland Times, Issue 18967, 14 June 1923, Page 5

FAR EAST PROBLEMS

BATTLE FOR PREDOMINANCE RUSSIA'S INFLUENCE ON CHINESE AFFAIRS (By arrangement with the Morning Post). (Copyright). (By Telegraph—Press Assn.—Copyright). (Australian and N.Z. Cable Association.) LONDON. June 13. (Received June 13, 5.5 p.m.) Up to 1904, no European nation had probably more influence at Pekin than Russia, bufc the Japanese war gave her a set-back from which she has not recovered. To Russians, this disaster was unbearable and the events of the Great War and the revolution only hardened the hearts of her politicians in a determination to re-estab-lish her position in Asiatic affairs. With the recapture of Vladivostok last October the old Pacific door was re-opened to Russian influence. The Soviet is now determined, with or without China’s help, to regain and consolidate the previous Oriental interests. In Joffre, its Minister at Pekin, the Soviet has one of its best trained and cleverest diplomats. On his instructions from Moscow depends not a little on the future Eastern balance of power. If Russia throws in her lot with Japan, these two nations together will soon be too strong for Western influence in China north of the Yang-tze-kiang, while if Dr Sun-Yat-Sen accepts Russia’s assistance to make Canton the predominant influence in Chinese politics, the Soviet will get a foothold all over China, and that, if it is cunningly handled, wall do more than any spasmodic propaganda to stir up trouble in our own Indian possessions. A Bolshevist circular dated November 25, 1922, stated definitely that Central Asia and the States bordering on India are to Russia the outposts from which the Soviet authority should be able to threaten England. The powerful Chinese secret society, the Ouo-Min-Tang, has a distinct element of Bolshevist control, and it was the power behind the disastrous Hong Kong strike early in 1921. This society, through its adherents in Java, recently employed its machinery to terrorise the Chinese residents in Malaya and strike a blow at the heart of the British prosperity in that country. Sun-Yat-Sen for some time used this society for Ids own ends, at the same time as he was corresponding with Moscow and Berlin. The Bolshevik propaganda has a fertile field in the dissatisfied ambitions of the Chinese student classes, but it would be an exaggeration to say that Bolshevist influence will make much headway among the ordinary peasant population. Their ideals are founded on family life and rights of property. However poor, they do not wish for a Communistic existence, but there is the danger that the Chinese as a whole might follow leaders without having any idea wither that lead was taking them. They have a proverb that, “He who rides on tigers can never dismount,” and if they are wise, they will apply this to any Soviet alliance.

Joffe recently spent some considerable time in Japan in a perfectly open manner, although his object may have been to discuss the future of Saghalion. It is not improbable other matters vital to European influence in the Far East were also discussed. Russian power in the East at present is almost entirely a propaganda one. Any clash of arms, however small, in the Far East, based on an understanding between Russia and Japan, could not but have a reflex action in India, where sporadic unrest, or even mutiny, would materially cripple the assistance England could give in Far Eastern affairs. It is worth while stating that large German interests in China which, perforce, were abandoned during the war, have entered upon a period of recrudescence. There have even been hints of understanding between Gem;any, Russia and Japan in these matters. Such a combination could not be expected to favour the Anglo-American influence in the Far East and might even create a solid bloc which would successfully squeeze out even the well-established business. Germany is actively connected with Russia in Europe, both as regards future trade enterprises, and with respect to hostility to other Western nations. Russia is seeking to recapture the Pacific position, not at Japan’s expense, but in harmony with her. Both groups naturally desire to win over a large share of the present Anglo-American influence and interests. Although the partners in this alliance may be strange bedfellows, yet from the similarity of their aims they may, in combination, do irreparable damage before coming to blows among themselves. Whichever way the problem be viewed, it cannot be said to be favourable to the present balance of power uj. the Pacific.