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Poverty Bay Herald, Volume XIX, Issue 6259, 5 January 1892, Page 2

The reliable correspondent of the Christchiuch Press telegraphs :— As time goes on and the eventful 15th of January approaches, the confidence of Mr Bell and his friends, and of the Opposition party generally, in the result seems to increase by rapid strides. An active member of Mr Bell's committee went through the figures very carefully with me to-day, explaining to me the reasons why certain working men's votes are counted upon which I should have regarded as more than doubtful, if not certain for the other side. lam bound to say his explanation seemed very reasonable and probable. If the shrewdest and most experienced electioneering tacticians in Wellington can be depended upon Mr Bell is safe to go in with a thumping majority. Several of his friends are sanguine that he will beat Mr M'Lean by fully a thousand votes. One very carefully worked out estimate gives 3600 votes for Bell and 2500 for M'Lean. That, you | will observe, presumes only 6100 votes to be recorded out of some 10,000 on the roll. It is calculated that Mr Bell will secure not only all the votes which he polled last year, but also many which went plumpers for Duthie and Fisher and Jcllicoe, as well as many which were split with other candidates. Further, he has infinitely the best committee and most complete organisation that has ever yet been seen in Wellington, if not in New Zealand. Not a single point is being missed. The Ministerialists are equally active, and profess equal confidence, but I find that there lias been a great deal of inaccurate nonsense written about the large and enthusiastic meetings on that side. People who were present give me a very different account. Of course the Ministerialist party is at a serious disadvantage in not having a strong candidate, but Mr M'Lean has been so thoroughly taken up and implicitly accepted by the party that this cannot be pleaded as an excuse in case of defeat. Ministers have appealed to their friends to stand by them loyally in the struggle, and to treat it as a test of strength, as if it were a regular appeal to the country. So far as I can judge, their friends are responding very well and cordially, in spite of their lack of personal enthusiasm for the Ministerial choice, and neither side will have any disloyalty to complain of. Both sides will bring up every vote that can possibly be gained, and the issue will be purely one of the largest battalions, not only of tactical or strategic skill, as is so often the case in such elections. There is one point which enhances the importance of this contest which Ministers have treated as a touchstone of their popularity and that of their policy. The election is not for a mere ordinary single constituency, but for a constituency entitled now to return four members, the largest city constituency in the whole colony. The verdict given on the 15th prox. will f>e that of some fifty thousand people, or nearly one-twelfth of the colony's entire population. This materially enhances its importance.