PATER'S CHATS WITH THE BOYS.

Otago Witness, Issue 3244, 17 May 1916, Page 74

PATER'S CHATS WITH THE BOYS.

THE GERMAN DBIVE AT VERDUN. As I write I have by me a New York Herald (March 19) cartoon about the size of two pages cf the Witness. It pictures a ravine leading up to a tunnel going through a mountain. On the masonry over the entrance in large letters there is carved out the sign, "Allies' Slaughter House, Verdun." Filling the ravine is a myriad flock of sheep with German helmets on, and driving them, each with a shepherd's crook in one hand and a stock-whip in the ether, are the Kaiser and the Crown Prince. Another cartoon shows the Kaiser saying before the first onslaught, "Men, you will be in your homes before Christmas" ; and they were, because he is shown surrounded by- a forest of crosses over graves. One account cays the snow slopes are dyed red with the blood of the slaughtered Germans, and another says that they are fighting in a sea of fire. Another account, written before February was ended, says that the Germans, sick of slaughter, have given up the attack; and yet we are in the middle of May, and fighting is furious still. Why this appalling slaughter, and why such persistency ? An American military expert says that the German effort should be regarded from three points of view : First, the reasons for it; second, to what extent it has succeeded; third, the potentialities in complete success. Let us take these in order for a few minutes. THE REASON FOR IT. Consider this from two points of view (1 am summarizing two or three articles really). The critic referred to says he gives what is the recognised opinio}) among military students, and takes the German position first. Germany's useful reserve in man-power is approaching exhaustion; she has reached the point where her losses can no longer be replaced by men standing the rigours of war; and having used up the efficient, supplied by normal drafts, she is now under the necessity of drafting into the service men below or above military age. .And the result? She has reached the point where a decline in power is inevitable, where her rate of wastage is so great that she must grow weaker mouth by month. And the other side? So far, France alone has reached the same point of exhaustion. With Russia and Britain the situation is entirely different. "These two will not have their full power either in men or in shells until the spring comes (written at the end of February, mind). They have not yet even considered reaching out for the inefficients who, under normal conditions, would not only not be called up, but who would not be permitted to serve with the colours. The wells of effective reserves in thes©

tAVO couuLiMCi ua>B nOu uet.il tapped. mis means tnat, wiui emaiier v\ acta^e and a, gicalei Uo Weil u»S greater reserves 10 uraw noai, 'em.ii month s eneiintto are gcULung a piepoilueraiiot; oi btreiigiii v. men increases me uispujpurtiun uiiii>j..-L' uuuv. ' unuer tnese conditions a German oiieiisive became a l o o .cai necessity, lor 11 u lie vet* a uermau military policy to wait until ueia,j iesstmeu chances of successes. jjuu wiiy attack at Verdun'/ v anoua considerations pub me eastern frontier out oi court, oub being no tear 01 nnineaiate danger on tnat irontier, and anotner being the certainty tnat x-iussia, uiougu navn.g Huge reserves, nacL not munitions auu equipments. it may be said, oi course, tnat tnis ougnt to be a good reason lor uermaiij taking the onensive in the eastj but remember tnat, once pilot tii© borders oi the uerman empire, Germany wouia not nave tne netwoik oi railway* to mass men and munitions on objective, ana tnat sne would be going to uowiiere in entering Kustiun territory, even tnougn bt. Jfeteroutug was reachea. ioj- these and other reasons the Western front was chosen for the offensive. But wny Verauu.' 'i'nis seems to oe a question not satisfactorily answered. It appears as if a teeimg process had gone on along the wnoie frontier, and tnat no weait spot Having been found, it became necessary to hx upon some dehnite objective, and Verdun was chosen became it was a pivotai point for tne h rench. Here about aIiO,OUO men were concentrated, Ysoo to tne mile, on a 40-mile carve. But Verdun ia ideally situated for defence. The surrounding forts are on the hills higher than the outer range of liiiis, and from these hills snot and shell can be poured down on the lower heights; and the more tne position is considered, says the military expert, the harder the German task appears. Besides, Nature's forts have been strengthened by engineering skill which, however, is concentrated on massive earthworks rather than on concrete and steel, as at Namur and Liege. TO WHAT EXTENT HAVE THE GERMAIN S SUCCEEDED ? Well, we know that Verdun has not yet fallen, and the opinion seems to be that there is less danger of it falling now than two months ago. The Germans have made gains, but they have done so at immense cost. Heavy attacks have been made with large forces, and in massed formations. As the French have strong artillery forces, and have every inch mapped out and distances known, no matter where the attack was ma.de, the losses to the incoming hosts have been cruel. If subsequent gains in position are accompanied by the ratio of losses obtaining in the past, Germany must be weakened so much as to be left exhausted with tho struggle. HOW WAS VERDUN TO BE TAKEN •'. Roughly speaking, the 40-mile curved front reached in a straight line about 30 miles long, from Melancourt, north-west of Verdun, to St. Mihiel, on the Meuse south of Verdun, which is also on the river. The idea was to advance south up the banks of the Meuse. cut railway communications with the west, and, linking up with St. Mihiel, isolate the city. So far the tactics have been a ghastly failure, but that is not to say Germany will not succeed. But succeed or not, Germany must keep on. To quit before she attains her goal is to admit what France and England claim, and what America, both the laity and the military element, believe—that Germany was beaten at the Mams, and that since then her only hope lay in a drawn battle, as all hope of victory had departed. WHAT IF IT IS TAKEN? This is how one military writer sums it up : "What the result will be it is hard to estimate. It is certainly the most vital point in the entire eastern section of the French front, and the pivotal point of the French hue r-ast of Kheims. Its fall will uncover the French line to the south, and might readily cause an entire readjustment, forcing the French to take up a line running through the barrier forts of Toul, Epinal, and Belfort." If you look at a map of this sector you will see that at the present moment the Germans are within five or six miles of the railway running west of Verdun, and are themselves about west of the fortressed citv. Will it fall? I hope not.