THE WORLD’S WHEAT CROP.

Otago Witness, Issue 3111, 29 October 1913, Page 17

THE WORLD’S WHEAT CROP.

MR MACKENZIE’S INVESTIGATIONS.; (Fboii Oub Own Cobrespondent.) LONDON, 1 September 12. | The world’s wheat crop is now being - forecasted, and’ most authorities agix-e in predicting a big increase. The High Com- , missioner has gone carefully info th» | figures in order to sec whether this in- | crease, put at 28,250,000 -quarters, U ( likely to be borne out by results, because, if not, such a report might cause farmer* to hold less firmly for price than they otherwise would. \ All the figm'es giving estimates of tits 5 world’s wheat crop which have been re- ■ ceived at the High Commissioner’s office ( indicate that this year’s figures will show increases as compared with those of last year, though there seems to be a wide | divergence of opinion as to the extcht ji ■ the increase. It seems to be generally ' conceded that the American crop will be ' larger than last year, and official figure* state the increase will be 2,000,000 quar- ■ ters. ' 1 -ji Russian crop figures are difficult, and;,? though a stort time ago it was anticipated ? that this year’s crop would exceed that j; of 1912 by 20,000.000, it has since been reported that some amount of damage hi* ? been done recently by rain.- The figure*;| given for France, too, would seem to bo optimistic, and 40,000,000 quarters is tho | Inghest figure of other authorities. It is known that this year there has been | a good deal of moisture in the northern | parts,, which will account for a lowering •* in quality of some of the crop. Indeed, ; one authority considers 37,600,000 quarters to bo a reasonable estimate. In the case of Germany, 18,500,000 quarters appears to be the generally accepted % figure, and here again there is likoly„t<» 1 be . some deficiency in quality unless tho ~ better weather reported recently has com* in time to affect, the crop. Estimates for Italy vary between 24,000,000 an! I 25,000.000, and the figures given for Spain, , Austria-Hungary, and the Balkan State* | would appear to be fairly generally ae- | ceptecl. In the case of India, cne authority'* | estimate is on the low side, and two other - authorities give nearer 45,000,000 as their figures. Summing up the position in the light 1 of the three estimates, and taking th* | various differences into account, the total world’s crop appears to be 417,500,000 quarters, which, on one authority’s figures, indicates an increase of 23,750,000 quarters over last year, roughly a 5£ ner cent. increr.se. This result bears out the statement contained in the Grain Section of | the High Commissioner’s last annual report “that the supply of wheat is at prosent keeping pace with the demand for it.” Mr Mackenzie points out that the world’s population is also increasing, and that the higher wages now paid, together with the great trade prosperity every-

where, justifies the conclusion that the j crop, although indicating an increase, is not above that which will be consumed.