A POSSIBLE WOOL FAMINE

Otago Witness, Issue 3035, 15 May 1912, Page 17

A POSSIBLE WOOL FAMINE

THE STATISTICAL POSITION

The Sydney Mail has been examining the statistics of the world's wool production, and has come to the conclusion that it has not kept pace with the consumption. While \ustralia has reached a golden harvest from this state of affairs, '' our contemporary goes on to point out that a drought of such an extent as to seriously affect the Australian output would mean something very nearly akin to a wool famine. Even with a continuance of good seasons the disparity between the world's production and its requirements is very marked, and while from the point of view of the grower such a strong statistical position is welcome, the wool-user sees serious trouble ahead. Already blending and adulteration are largely resorted to, and wool-users are alarmed at future prospects. Up to the! present no satisfactory substitute for wool has been found, nor is it ever likely to be; but as wool, by its scarcity, increases in cost, it is only natural to expect a more general resort to shoddy and adulterants. Closer settlement in Australia and the development of the immigration policy will crowd sheep off huge areas, and must lead eventually to curtailed production, especially of merino wool. Then new and almost unlimited markets are being opened in the East with the gradual adoption of the European style of dress. Japan has already become a factor in the local market, and when China is thoroughly awakened, and a substantial proportion of the teeming millions of the East adopt woollen- clothing, there is goin? to be a sorioiw shortage of wool. ■ Japan has tried sheep-husbandrv. and has practically abandoned it; and the Chinese sheep produce hair and down of comparatively little value". That China will follow the lead of Japan and look to Australia for her wool supplies is certain: hence there will be more customers Tor IOS3 wool. A world-wide glance at sheep flocks arid wool production reveals some startling doorcases, and wool users -may with - reason be alarmed at. the prospects ahead for supplies of merino wool, and the crying need for mode wool should lead to the scientific utilisation of the large areas of Australia now undeveloped, and to increased sheepfanmins on the closer-settled areas. Few industries have the prospect of such an unlimited outlet at highly remunerative prices.

GERMANY'S FLOCKS DISAPPEARING.

Fifty years ago Germany could boast of 2;,000.000 sheep, while to-day she has a bare 5,000,000. Each year Germany has become more and more dependent on Australia for its wool supplies, and the prosperity of our wool industry is to a largr extent due to the splendid support froii this foreign Power. German spinners realised years ago that their flocks were doomed, and turned to Australia, and no section dominates our markets to such an extent as Germany. No section, either, bids so consistently, or keeps on bidding so solidly right throughout the season. Just as German flocks have declined German manufacturing- has advanced. From a pastoral country she has grown into a manufacturing country, and the progress of the industry has been rapid, and still continues. Population increases, and the demands of the mills aire harder to satisfy.' Quite recently there has been a belated effort to make up for lost time, and sheep are being exploited in German South Africa, but the trade recognises that for many a lone year to come Germany must rely upon Australia for the bulk of her supplies. The last two seasons saw an average of 254.000 bales shipped to Germany, while this season's figures are already over that mark, and the German demand has undoubtedly been the real secret of the defeat of the cheap wool contingent. THE DECLINE IN FRENCH FLOCKS. France is another country where development has been more in the manufacture than the growth of wool. In flact, her sheen have during the past 70 years been steadily diminishing. In 1840 she had as many sheep as the United Kingdom; now she has little more than half. The total in 1840 was 32,000,000. while the figures for 1910 are 17.456,380. The produotion of the flocks in France is about 50,000,0001 b of greasy wool, while the average consumption of French spinning and weaving mills over 10 years is 13*,693,0001b, and during the last few years the importations are considerably over this average. The position as regards France can be summed up by stating that the production of raw material is stationary, whiles there is no none of increasing it, and the natural expansion of trade is calling for increased

supplies. The bulk of the extra wool is sought in Australia, and in Sydney alone French purchases average about 260,000 to 270,000 bales in a season. The French section has done a lot to help build up the local sales, and the demand is bound to increase in the natural order of things. Tho French buyers deplore the gradual tendency of Australian wools to become coarser. The biff demand is for essentially fine wools, and the production of fine wools is gradually falling off. Buyers declare that it would be a thousand pities if, after breeding the fine-woolled merino to perfection, Australians yield more and more to what they term the "crossbred craze." ' GREAT BRITAIN'S FLOCKS. The sheep flocks of Great Britain are in striking contrast to those of other Oldworld countries, and from year to year remain at a remarkably even figure—somewhere about the 30-millioh mark. Thirtyeight years ago Britain had 30,313,941 sheep; to-day she has 31,164.587. The wool production of tho United Kingdom is thus summarised:—

U.S.A. SHEEP AND WOOL. Up to 1800 the U.S.A. possessed only longlegged, unsightly, coarse-wcolled sheep. At the beginning of the century the merino was introduced, and in 1626 Saxon fine-wcolled sheep were imported. In 1830 "it became fashionable to rear sheep, and by 1810 the U.S.A. had 19,311,374- sheep producing 35,803,1141 bof wool.„ Despite heavy tariffs, U.S.A. wool-users have to import large quantities of English and Australian wools.; At present U.S.A. sheep totals remain at about the 50-million mark, the latest figures to hand giving tho total as 52,183,923. With normal trade conditions in U.S.A. manufactuiers aro obliged to make heavy imports of wool, and as time passes and requirements extend' there will be a bigger call for. "foreign" wool, more especially if the tariff is moderated next year Ihe increased U.S.A. demand will accentuate the world's wool shortage. ■; COLONIAL WOOL CLIP VALUES INCREASED BY £36,650,000.

Colonial imports of wool into the United Kingdorh and America since 1860 have increased from 266,000 bales to 2,900,000 bales, the latter figures, which are for the calendar year 1911, constituting, a. record total. The following comparison shows the growth of importations from Australasia and from South Africa, ami the fact that the value of imports has increased from £6,850,000 to' £43,5CC,000, and that of the latter total the Australasian wool is valued at £37,860,000, shows what a big factor our woolgrowers are m supplying the markets of the world. In 1860 Australasian wool imported into the United Kingdom and America wag valued at £4.815,250, as against £37,860.000 last year —an increase in the value of the annual output of 110 less ; than £33,045,000. The value of Cape wool imports has increased from £2,034,250 in 1860 to £5,640,000 in 1811. In considering these figures it must be borne in mind that the average value is taken as £25 15* por bab. in 1860, as against £ls in 1911. Following is a brief summary of the position:—

A CENTURY'S PROGRESS AND • TRANSFORMATIONS. When the Australian wool industry started England depended largely on Spain lor her supplies of line wool, and a little later on Germany cam.? to the front as a wcol-pro-ducing country; but Australasian exports simply revolutionised the position, and in rho "sixties" German breeders abandoned the system of breeding for fineness, and gradually began to breed for caroase, looking to Australia for its fine-wool requirements In Australia, with population scarce, and meat exports not on a practical basis, the one aim was to produce the finest and highest-priced wool, and years of concentration on this point attained perfection. How Australia changed the source* of the world's wool supply is shown in the following figures, which are taken from a publication of 60 years ago: — Wool Production.

Since '.hat dato Germany has instead of a competitor become our best customer, and Australasian production has increased from 73,1711 bin 1815 to 820,012,4491 bin ■l9lO-11. the century's progress in production representing 819,939,2781 b. Spain as a woolproducing country has disappeared, and other parts of Europe are practically out of the reckoning now, and nave joined the ranks of Australia's customers. South America has increased her production of wool to somewhere about 200 million pounds, but as the mutton industry has be©U the predominating feature a very largo proportion of this is crossbred. The imports of Rivor Plate wool into Europe and the United States recently have been

Tho wool clip in 1911 was derived as under: —From the Western Province, 26,678 bales; Eastern Province and interior, 248,607 bales; and Natal and interior, 100,752 bales. GERMANY URGED TO BREED MORE SHEEP. A recent criticism of Germany's position in tho wool world dwells upon bne fact

that her diminished flocks have rendered her. largely dependent on and comments on the movement to re-build up the German flocks. "Let Gerrilany strain every nerve,"" says the writer. . " Let sheep-owners there do all they can. to improve the quality and increase the quantity of their wools, for as tho t world's needs become greater a more extensive supply will be wanted to fill those requirements and to keep the price of tho finished fabrics at a figure which the buying' public can afford to pay. The great call at the present time is for serviceable materials at a reasonable price, and so long as the world's population continues to increase, so long will the demand continue to expand. As time goes oh Australia's home consumption of wool will certainly become larger. 7'h.n same may bo said) of South Africa., whilst China and Japan bid .fair to become increasingly eager buyers of Australia's sur-plus-wool. All these circumstances ought to stimulate German sheep-owners bo multiply their flcoks as much as possible, and to do all they can to increase their output of wool. There is not the slightesl need for hesitancy in this matter." BRADFORD FEARS A PERMANENT SHORTAGE. S. B. Rollings, the editor of the BraoV ford Wool Record, sees the danger of a wool famine. "There is not the slightest doubt," he declared recently, " that the world's production of wool is only at par with consumption. The market for wool is becoming larger almost every day. '-Substitutes are being brought more under public notice, but many of them aire ridiculously inferior to wool, and never oain equal it. They fail altogether where good clothing material is wanted, and it is only' ,necessary to place wool on the market, and in the hands of manufacturers, to prove' that it occupies the premier position fol the purpose named." . CROSSBRED DISPLACING MERINO. In their annual review, issued in Melbourne, Goldsbrough, Mort. and Co. (Ltd.) declare that big, straight lines of merino wool are steadily on the wane, and that buyer* will find an ever-increasing difficulty in securing parcels of the size that provailed only a few years ago. Users, tlhey point out. are not, as a whole, so- well seized of this phase of the industry" as they might be, and' it cannot be too strongly emphasised. Subdivision of large sheep runs and the trend towards the crossbred on account of their producing a biggerframed and quicker-marketing sheep 'than the merino have changed the character, of the offerings in Melbourne, and tlhc same change will gradually apply to other Australian centres. Immigration spells smaller holdings, and theste mean increased production of crossbred wool at the expense of , merino. **

Year. lbs. Year. lbs. 1800 .. 92,544,000 1880 .. 148,729,061 1826 .. 111,623,729 1890 .. 137,724,700 1846 .. 130,140,000 1900 .. 141,146,376 1873 .. 165,350,472 1911 .. 136,143,040

Australasian u Gape. Value. Year. Bales. Bales.. £ 1860 187,000 79,000 6,850,000 1870 546,000 152,000 11,691.000 1880 869,000 219,000 . 22,032.000 1890 .. 1,411,000 288,000 25,060,003 1900 .. 1,456,000 140,000 21,546,000 1910 .. 2,411,000 377,000 45,305,0-W 1911 .. 2,524,000 376,000 43,500,000

1815. 1849. Country. lbs. lbs. 6,927,934 127,559 Germany 3,137,438 12,750,011 Other parts of Europe 3,416,132 11,432,354 South America 45,838 6,014,525 Cape of Good Hop© .. 23,363 5,377,495 British- India — 4,182,853 73,171 35.879,171 10,291 1,004,679 13,634,167 76.768,017

as follow ;- — Bales. Bales. 1910-11 .. .. 499,000 1907-8 .. .. 484.000 1909-10 .. .. 461,000 1906-7 .. .. 478,000 1908-9 .. .. 571,000 South Africa is gaining- ground as a woolproducing ■wide-awake country, and ae a result of, a i policy in importing stud sheep from Aust ralia the quality of the wool IS improving in a very marked manner. Recent production is as undot :— Year. Bales. Year. Bales. 1911 .. 376,037 1907 .. .. 286.950 1910 .. 376,736 1906 .. .. 238,423 1909 .. 880,028 1905 .. .. 208,766 1908 .. 275,630