REPORT OF THE REGISTRAR.

Otago Witness, Issue 1499, 7 August 1880, Page 14

REPORT OF THE REGISTRAR.

(FROM OUR OWN CORRESPONDENT.) Wellington, August 4th. Tho returns of sickness and mortality for the quinquennium 1873 to 1877 have been subjected to careful examination, with a view of rectifying errors as far as possible, but chiefly excluding all data of an erroneous or suspicious nature. This work was entrusted to M r Frankland, tho actuary, and is nearly completed. The result has been the exclusion from the proposed experience of tho returns furnished by a considerable number of lodges and courts. The number of lives which tho residue of the data will embrace may be stated approximately at from seven to eight thousand. This is equivalent to between twenty and thirty thousand years of life experience, about equal to that upon which Mr Ansell's Friendly Societies' table is based. As soon as ready, tho prooess will be completed, as everything is ready for tabulation. The data is too scanty to bring out a reliable law of deterioration of the average health, but if the positive results are shown, it will gx>_ far to refuto the arguments against tho use of English data in the construction of premiums derived from the law of the rate of sickness which obtains in now Zealand at present Apart from the error of those who rely on a low rate of sickness without taking into consideration the ages of members, thero is a subtler fallacy which leaves out the account of the effect of recency of admission. Mr Frankland anticipates this influence, in conjunction with the cession of healthier members, will be found considerable. There is another feature which tends to bring out the fictitious appearance of salubrity in the experience of New Zealand societies, namely, tho -occasional forbearance of members in good circumstances to claim all the benefits to which they are entitled under the rules. The saving thus effected has been in many lodges considerable. This cause of apparently low sickness rates will not operate so strongly in the future as in the past. It would be difficult, however, to eliminate the influence of this factor from the data. In view of the fact that a movement is in progress towards the establishment of superannuation funds, as well as on other grounds, it is greatly to be desired that an investigation should be made into the mortality experience of New Zealand as exhibited in the records of the Registrar-generals office. The actuary to the Scottish Provident Institution has determined the rates of mortality at various ages in New Zealand by comparing the deaths for the year 1873 with number of population according to the census of March, ' 1874. "The result," he says, "compares favourably with any other table." I cannot certify to the scales of contributions for annuities unless they are based on a table showing low mortality, especially where it is made optional with members whether they will insure for superannuation benefits. Pending the construction of a New Zealand life table, premiums should not be lower than net 4 per cent. The districts combined in this table show much lower mortality than the Manchester Unity experience. Moreover, there is a table for female lives showing still lower mortality. Serious blunders in the adoption of erroneous mortality are apt to prove hurtful to the interests of a society. This is only one of the many evils connected with the present condition of friendly societies, and although the visitation may be more remote, the awful consequences of such a calamity, like every other evil of procrastination, will be irreparable. We see hence how needful it is to beware of assuming too high mortality in constructing premiums for annuities. It should never be forgotten that the adoption of the erroneous Northampton table, so fortunate in the interest of insurance, caused the loss of about three millions of pounds to the British Government in t r e transaction of its annuity business. In a society consisting of a small number of members, and probability of large fluctuations in sickness and mortality, it is imperative that there should be heavy' loading on the premiums computed on the assumption of average experience. This loading oi- margin is partly provided by profit arising from the withdrawal of members, as the latter are not, in life offices, allowed any compensation for loss they sustain. But a more certain and satisfactory margin is provided by the realisation of a higher rate of interest than that assumed in the computation of premiums, and in the valuation of its assets and liabilities. As regards the tables of sickness and mortality, it is believed by the actuary attached to the office that they overestimate both the rate of sickness and the rate of mortality likely to be experienced by tho majority of New Zealand friendly societies at each age of life, except, perhaps, at a very advanced age. Unless a rigorous interpretation be placed on the rules relating to relief in chronic infirmity, payments to very old members are likely to be heavier than the scanty, though mutually corroborative data of the Manchester Unity have shown. The possibility is that the claims for payment in old age may be at a higher rate than that indicated by the Manchester Unity experience when combined with the probability. The mortality experienced by New Zealand societies is lower than the Manchester Unity in England, and therefore a larger proportion of members survive to claim what is virtually superannuation. This goes far to show that it would be imprudent in a majority of cases to estimate the sick liabilities of a society at a lower amount than that given by the Manchester Unity experience. Even in regard to funeral liabilities, the presumption in favour of low mortality is not sufficiently strong to justify a departure in the direction of leniency from the Odd-Fellows' data. Considering the magnitude of the operations of friendly societies in this Colony, receiving contributions from over 20,000 members, it is a matter of the greatest import to the State that the contributions by members of these societies are adequate to meet the promise of benefits, as the failure to do so would involve much misery, especially among aged members who are depending on their sick pay m case of infirmity and inability to work, and would "impose upon the State or upon society the additional duty of supporting these aged people. Therefore it will be interesting to note the improvements in the premiums charged by those societies since the organisation of this office. When the Friendly Societies Act, 1877, was passed, only three or four branches of societies in the Colony charged premiums adequate to the benefits guaranteed. There were then about 200 branches of societies, with an aggegate membership of about 20,000 persons. Since that time the number of branches in existence has increased to 314, although only about one-half of them aro registered, besides possibly othcr3 the existence of which is not known in the office. Of these, the following have adopted rates which aro equal to or slightly in excess of the rates recommended by the actuary of tho department :— Manchester Unity of Odd-Fellows, Hawko's Bay District, eight lodges ; Wellington district, 12 ; North Westland district, three ; Volunteer Lodge, 1.0.0.F.,M.U., Sydenham; Independent Order of Odd-Fellows (American), 21; AncientOrdev of Foresters, Auckland district, seven courts ;— total, 72. Besides this there has been considerable improvement in the rates of contribution of other branches, even although the standard recommended by the actuary may not have been attained. This improvement has usually taken the form of the substitution of a graduated scale of contributions for a contribution uniform for entrance^ at all ages. In other cases the improvement has arisen by ceasing to charge tho sick and funeral fund with medical exponscs as a liability. A list of those branches known to have effected either of these improvements is appended :— ', Manchester Unity of Odd-Fellows— Hokitika district, 0 lodges ; Lyttelton district, 9 ; Otago district, 24 ; Inveroargill district, 4. Ancient Order of ForestersCourt Queen of the Isles, 1 ; Otago district, 20 courts. Ancient Order of Shepherds— Sanctuary Sir George Grey, 1. Independent Order of Eechabites— New Zealand central district, 31 tents. Sons and Daughters of Temperance division, 1. Total, 97 branches. No application has been made during the 12 months under vcviow for tho registration of any trade union, nor have there been any duties performed under the provisions of tho Trade Unions Act, 1878, to report upon.

The following Is an abstract of the tables attaohed to the report :— Ankuaii Kbturnb, 1879,

Society. 1 i 1© a M i ! Odd-Fellows, M.U. . . Do A.C. Foresters . . . . Shepherds Druids Rechabites S. and D. Temperance H.A.C.B.S Other Societies 6134 386 3404 40 88 36 102 369 200 £ 4290 239 2041 22 25 42 52 286 186 & 64,462 2,187 25,886 162 217 99 574 1,865 3,216 & 8596 34 1216 7 10s lOd 4 26 66 219 Totals 97591 7187 98,868 5170 These totals are exclusive of shillings and pence.