NOTES ON THE GABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 16889, 29 December 1916, Page 5

NOTES ON THE GABLES.

By Shrapnel.

THE RUMANIAN CAMPAIGN. Tho lighting in Jiastcrn Wallachia and tho JJobrudja has rea<;hecl an interesting aUigo. By iiow Lin; whole; of tho Dobrudja iicLi boon overrun by tho oneiny, aud thu bridgeheads at Itac-eua and Tuleea aro' being attacked. Theso operations suggest that Marshal von Mackeueon intends to occupy tho delta of the Daaiubo and cross into Bessarabia, with tho intention of turning the iSorcth liuo of defences and oT advancing or threatening an advance upon Odessa. That port is within striking distance as soon ae tho delta is in tho enemy's possession and tho district east of the. junction of the fciereth with tho Danube is occupied^ What Marshal von Hindenburg's intentions are will be revealed in tho course of the next few weeks. If Mackeusen finds the Allies too strong in Moldavia and Bessarabia, ho will sottlo down on a strong defensive line, and, while winter prevents any Russian counter offensives in Moldavia or Bukowina, strong enemy forces will bo do tached and eont against General Sarrail'a positions in Macedonia. Except in the Dobrudja, there have been signs during tho last threo weokg that tho ofl'ensivo of the German allied forces is slowing down. Between tho Danube and tho mountains the Russians are sustaining heavy rearguard actions; so much bo that tho Dobrudja advanco of tho enemy has far outstripped tho advanco of the mam body in Eastern Wallachia. Tho RussoRumanian forces south of tho Sereth and west of the Danube cannot afford to delay their retreat, as the enemy is already at Rimnicu and opposite Braila, If tho Dobrudja forces effect a crossing r.nywherc between tho head of the delta and tho neighbourhood of Braila, tho RuSfcoRumanians will have to fall back very rapidly or they will be caught in a bottle neck between Rimnieu and Braiia In connection with tho Rumanian campaigns tho question may be asked: How is it that the Germans and their allied forces arc ablo to carry out such successful and rapid advances during winter whilo the Allies everywhere elso aro held up ? The answer is that the enemy has had tho great advantage of attacking a long and narrow Rumanian salient with good railway communications on both sides, and that when the salient was entered and crushed from the north and south the shortening of the German front gavo Mackcnson the services of victorious troops greatly superior in number with which to attack tho harassed Rumanians. Moreover, tho enemy had the advantage of a superiority in heavy guns. It is also to be remembered that inside tho salient tho enemy acquired tho excellent internal road and railway systems of Wallachia. Midwinter in Rumania does not imposo tho wretched conditions that obtain on tho west front, where tho weather is both cold and) wet. In Rumania tho climate is cold and dry, especially in Eastern Wallachia, and the heavy frosts of midwinter are an advantage, as far as transport in tho open is concerned. Tho Russians have boon embarrassed Tjy Ivsd communications and a lack of heavy artillery. The Rumanians for their part had not enough men to defend their salient nor had they the artillery to combat that assembled by the enemy against their lines. No doubt tho Russian deficiency is being steadily made up, but some time will clapso beforo tho Russians will be ablo to equalise tho number of gnus. In tho meantime, unless Mackensen lias reached his intended goal, it will only bo by throwing up strong entrenchments that the Ruisso-Rumanians will be ablo to hold up the enemy. "Winter in tho Carpathians is against the Russians carrying out any flanking or counter-attacks against tho strongly-held positions of the enemy.

GENERAL SARRAIL'S OUTLOOK. The present moment must be flii anxious ono for General Sarrail. At any moment ho may bo confronted with superior forces, armed with heavy guns of all calibres. Already German reinforcements have arrived in Macedonia, . bringing with them heavy artillery, and greater reinforcements are to be expected if Mackensen is held up r.oar where he now is in Wallachia. It is not known what the strength of tho forces with General Sarrail is, but ho will require three-quarters of a million to hold his present lines in Macedonia and at Salonika. Without that number and without a sufficiency of heavy guns, there is a probability that ho will bo compelled to retreat from the positions gained in the north and east of Monastir. Tho chances are that tho Kussians are being very strongly reinforced in Bessarabia and Moldavia, and after the Rumanians have rested and been reorganised, Mackensen may recognise that the Russians and Rumanians will bo too strong for him. and as Germany requires for her peace purposes to make another demonstration of her allegedly all-conquering powers and invincibility, the onl.v opening left her for ft display is against General Sarrail. There are many reasons, besides tho desire of prestige, why Germany should turn her attention to Macedonia. General Sarrail's forces at Salonika arc a threat against Bulgaria and against tho communications with Turkey, whence Germany is drawing some scant but very necessary supplies of food and munition materials. Moreover, apart from her boasted prospects and her great commercial rights in Asia Minor, it is most necessary that she should in the near future be able to draw reserves from Bulgaria and Turkey into Europe, to assist her weakening forces against Russia. Further, if tho Allies at Salonika can bo annihilated or driven to their ships. King Constaatine will allow both the willing and unwilling sections of the Greek armies to bo used by tho Germans as they wish. Certainly, irrespective of tho advantages which the Kaiser would gain in tho matter of strategy, ho should do something to help his distressed and beloved "Tino"," who, if left to his confused and wavering practices, may end in being bereft of a crown.

I THE BRITISH ON THE SOMME. The sensation of tho hour in London has boon the taking? over of tho Sornmo front by the British forces. No one, away from tho sectors concerned on tho west front appears to have had any inkling of what was transpiring. By carrying out an intensive bombardment in the vicinity of Ypres, Sir Douglas Ilaig led the enemy to expect an attack along tho front from Pilkem to Armenticres. Apparently the Germans were completely deceived, for the French troops were withdrawn from the Somme sectors and their places quietly taken by the British without oven any molestation from tho German artillery, which would certainly have, been turned on the trendies and the communication lines if tho enemy had been aware of what was going on. Tho Germans will now bo at a less to find out what is going to bo done with the troops that have been rcrieved. It is not known what number of Frenchmen have left tho Somme front, but iE the British have taken over 20 miles of trench front, at least between 180,000 to 200,000 French troops will have left that front. These men may be going to tho Champagne, to Verdun, to tho Lorraine front, or to Alsace, whore the Crown Prince has gone to seek the jnuclidesirod chance of rehabilitating h : s tattered reputation as a. commander. Thrro i.s also a possibility that General Farrnii is bo ing reinforced as hastily as possible, in order to meet tho heavy offensive wh'ch. sooner cr later, will be launched against him.

SUEZ OPERATIONS. British operation', on tho eastern side of t.ho Isthmus of Suez arc not bcins stopped at El Ansh. Twenty miles to tho southcast, Magdhaba, an important oasis and road centic, has been captured and .1 foreo of 2000 Turks' surprised, over 1100 prisoners being taken and tho British casualties being astonishingly feu-. In this action tho value of mounted men on horses and camois for tho

purpose of rapid -work and surpriso in country can bo seen. After taking Magd? haba onr troops pushed on toward* Kos« sama, about 25 miies south-east of Magdhaba, thus acquiring three of the most important bases which the Turks were using for the purpose of moving forces across the isthmus. The ease by which these positions weretaken goes to prove the truth of the statement that has been repeatedly made that, since their attack at El Kantara, and even then, the Turks have been putting up a great bluff for the purpose of detaining large British forces along the canal front. British patrol forces and aeroplanes are scouting towards Nakhl, on the pilgrim route to Meoca, halfway between Suez and Alsaba, on the Gulf of Alsaba at the head of the Red Sea. When General Chetwode is assured that the isthmus is clear of tho enemy, ho will probably threaten a movement towards Beersheba and advance upon Rufa, on the Levantine coast. If he finda the enemy weak, he will have the great chanco of pushing towards Joppa, the port of Jerusalem, and there establishing a base for working inland against the AleppoMecca railway, as well as diverting Turkish, forces from Bagdad, Europe, and Armenia.