PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLII, Issue 9721, 25 July 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The first thought on looking at the war nows is. of course, of tho “in. stability” which has done so much mischief on the Russian front. And tho first thing one sees is that in tho Russian army of the Zlokow-Tarnopol front the disease continues. The United Press Agency and Reuter both give the gloomiest pictures of the utter demoralisation —the spirit of the offensive gone, troops refusing to obey orders; a column ’sixty miles long of robust deserters in the rear moving homewards. These details have been conveyed to Petrograd in “an appall, ing message” to the Government. The correspondents Seeing their own sphere only are, .of course, depressed. They place the worst construction on what passes • before their eyes. Certain correspondents, we remember, declared at a critical moment in the retreat from Mom that tho British Expeditionary Force had been wiped out. Those correspondents have not gone quite so far; they have confined themselves .to stating facts, from which anybody that pleases may draw the conclusion that the Russian armies of Galicia will shortly be destroyed. The British army survived the report. Why not the Russian?

The enemy is not at all jubilant. He knows more than tho happenings near Tarnopol. Ho docs not officially confirm the report (of Reuter and others) of his capture of Tarnopol; he

only claims officially to have occupied the heights west of the place. From there his account turns to another part of his line, announcing that be has crossed the Rohatyn-Ostrow railway (a section of the Lemberg-Tarno-pol line passing a little to the south of Brzezany). moving southwards: that he is co-ordinating with this a forward movement astride tho Dniester.

Now these movements do not hear out yesterday’s messages, the purport m which was that tuo Russians at Brzezany acre very hard pressed on both flanks. To Understand what they do mean we must realise the topographical conditions. There are three river bas.iiis all parallel—of the Scrcth, the Zlota Lipa and the Gnita Lipa — each a tributary from the north of the Dniester. Yesterday wo left one Russian army partly driven from tho Zlota Lipa to the Sereth, and partly maintaining some sort of lodgment at Tarnopol. Wo left another, the Seventh, holding the Zlota Lipa from Brzezany downwards, and the third retreating down the Dniester from Lomnica, or about to do so. The two movements reported from Berlin today are over the Rohaty-Ostrow railway, which crosses the three river valleys from west to east, and the other down both sides of the Dniester, are obviously intended to drive back the Russian-line holding between the Brzcz-any-Lipa front and the Lomnica. It is clear, therefore, that the southern flank of the Seventh Russian army has never been approached, and could not have been pressed. It is clear also that so far from abandoning the Zlota Lipa line below Brzezany, as the German bulletin said they were about to do, the left of the Seventh Army, and Korniloff’s army of the Lomnica, have not yet approached that line at all. They are on the Zlota Lipa, tho Dniester, and the Lomnica.

These movements are intended to drive these armies partly back to tho Ziota Lipa, and partly down the south bank of the Dniester past the embouchure of that stream as it falls into the bigger river on its northern bank. The German account adds that the Russians r.re resisting strongly, southward of tho railway. What follows from these facts, and the fact that the enemy does not report any attempt to advance beyond Tarnopol, that the Russian line of three armies (BrusiloJf’s original advance) has been thrown back on its right with a bad break in the centre 1 of its right, as far as tho Sereth ; that the centre is holding comfortably at Brzezany; that elements of the centre arc resisting tho attempt which the enemy is making to drive them back These elements are not retreating but fighting. Whether they fight to make good a retreat, or to retain their positions with a view to facing able to resumo the offensive, it is too soon to say. What is clear is that the enemy, probably unable to pursue his great advantage at Tarnopol, is compelled to further develop his offensive so as to compel the retreat of all the three Russian armies, and flint for that purpose he has obtained no advantage at all.

Th 6 fact that ho has'driven in the right of Bmsiloff’s advance is, of course, to his advantage, but that the advantage is not sufficient to. enable him to drive back the whole is clear enough. The stubborn resistance to tho development of his offensive' shows that the Russian armies of the cei tro and left are not affected with the instability which has proved partially fatal to the army of the right. It is a far better position than the rt ports presented yesterday. We need not yet trouble about tho consequences of any disaster as far as Kieff. It is true, as a correspondent points out to-day, that Tarnopol is on tho road to Kieff. But the enemy has yet to drive the three armies back to Tarnopol and the Sereth and over the Dniester. Till he does that ho will not, he able to cut off the Roumanian forces which, holding the southern extremity of 1 the. great Eastern lino (Riga to the Danube), are based on.Kieff. .

Tarnopol is one day’s march from the Russian frontier. Rr,ssky and Brusiloff opened their famous, offensive which conquered Galicia in August, 1914. Brusiloff was over the border, on the 22nd of the month, and on tho 23rd his cavalry hustled the retreating Austrians out of Tarnopol. That gives us some idea of what may happen when the Russian!? are driven over tho Sereth and the Dniester. At the frontier the railway gauge on the line Tarnopol-Kieff changed in 1914 to the narrower Russian measure. If this condition still exists, if in other words, tho Russians have not altered their gauge, the enemy's advance when he reaches the frontier will he proportionately hampered. But for tho present there is no need to speculate in this direction. The Russian lino is making a good resistance. One element, therefore, justifies tho Petrograd report that tho news from tho provinces is good.

Tho reports from the southern extremity are of fighting on the lower Sereth front from the Carpathians to the Danube, apparently reconnoitring raids, and a heavy Russian bombardment which tho enemy reports he regards as preliminary to a great battle. Evidently ho anticipates serious offensive in that quarter. It is mother justifying element in the report that the news from the provinces is good.

Another element is not to goad. It is tho report of a strong offensive in the neighbourhood of Smorgon, winch the Russian general there launched after tue preliminary bombardment mentioned in the reports of yesterday and the day before. The assault was successful at first, penetrating tl.e Russian position to a depth of two miles. But the report adds that the success of the movement was jeopardised by the instability of some of the detachments. The enemy, admitting the penetration, reports that he repulsed the assault with his counterattack. What happened, we fairly conclude, is that the Russian supports were unable, owing to the instability of Borne of their units, to reinforce tl.e captured position sufficiently. Whether this means that the Russian troops were driven from the captured position, or that they were merely prevented from following up their success fay further penetrating into the enemy’s lines is not clear. The very moderate report of the onemy inclines to the opinion that the assault held the trenches captured partially, if not all of them. The worst point, ot course, is that in the northern Russian army which has conic into action for the first time since the Revolution and launched an offensive, there is found the “instability” which has brought the southern offensive to grief.

There is another element, however, which justifies the good report from the provinces. It is the'-assurance of support M. Kerensky has received from eighteen provinces, urging him :o Use drastic measures to put down the anarchist rebellion. Tho populace of the capital have grown angry against the

rebellion, by reason of the dl-covcry that it was financed by German ru tcy, and it has begun to lynch rebels. Two men who were discovered working a machine-gun from a house-top were seized and torn to pieces. Popular judgment vnU not be long connecting the army “instabilities” with a German origin, and that may oelp the German offensive to harden up both v and neople. The behaviour of the mutineers is very suggestive. They

J -l.f wos 1 pvt surrender their arms with meekness, they appeal for mercy, and they are overwhelmed at the sentence of disbandment, One wonders what th.ev wore told by German agents and anarchist plotters to induce the mutiny. Whatever it was. it veins mv,bni*le uosv that the German offensive was launched with the full know- ; .n.m that tbe Russian troops had been corrupted. That ought to harden up tbe army ns soon as it gets known to all the units.

The state of politics in the capital is, apparently, one of transition._ Ministers are resigning, and it is difficult to replace them. Tbe desire for a strong Government is spreading as the people realise the evil done by the anarchists and the German conspirators, which the dullest moujik can see for himself must, if unchecked, destroy the revolution and the nation. The idea of the Republic is still in the air, and Kerensky is becoming daily more and more the acknowledged strong man of the hour. Ho has fought at. the front; ho is coping vigorously with the disorder in the array; the navy has declared for him, reported to-day, to a man; and from all sides come demands for drastic suppression of rebels and for strong government. It is a fair enough conclusion that the transition period that looks disquieting will have a good ending ; still the situation is full of anxiety. The great point of to-day’s news is that there has* been no military disaster, and that tbe chance of such disaster is considerably further removed than it appeared yesterday to be, and that the Russian troopß are fighting well in several places.

The Western front shows no change. Tlie enemy has kept up his battle on the Aisne and in the Champagne with no diminution of energy and no abatement of failure. Against Verdun ho does not appear to have made good his threat.' At the same time the French.' Chamber of Deputies has expressed confidence in the situation. It has done so- with expressions suggesting more than suspicion of secret conspiracies; and the Prime Minister’s speech in reply conveys the same impression. • • *

Sir Douglas Haig reports similar activities to yesterday’s, only more so. The raids lead to retention of small portions of the enemy’s trenches, in one place GOO yards of front hy 300 in depth ; and the air squadrons have been very busy strafing everything behind the enemy’s lines. Is it a crescendo leading to a mighty crash ?