PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XL, Issue 9139, 3 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

With the Eastern front we deal elsewhere. Here, howevpr, we have to consider some details. Tile latest news, we take it, is the . Petrograd report which announces the defeat of the Austria n General von Pllanger in the Volhynia section. The object of his attack was, according to the Petrograd message, to drive the southern division of the Russian armies away .from the neighbourhood of Roumania. That object, however, could not be'attained without driving the Russians off the Kieff-Odessa main trunk line of railway. .Obviously, because if firmly attached to these bases they would be a. perpetual menace, requiring a strong enemy army pf observation to contain them, a-nd a perpetual encouragement to Roumania to take the field. The only way to drive the Russian southern armies away from Roumania is to cut them from the Kieff main trunk, and drive them into the Pripet marshes to their destruction. To frustrate this attack, ’therefore, was an imperative necessity for the Russian command. The enemy having closed, and having been strongly reinforced, from yon Mackensen’s army—as another Petrograd message seems to imply—retreat was no longer possible. The Russians had to give battle. The southern Russian armies had reached the crisis of their fate.

They accepted battle. The fight was desperate. After many fusions attacks, the enemy was repulsed, and the Russians, taking the offensive, drove back the assaulting columns, defeating, according to the Petrograd estimate, five German and Austrian Army Corps—a total of something over 150,000 men. The Russian military critics attach importance to tlui victory. Naturally, because it has demonstrated that the Russians are able to meet the enemy in pitched battle and beat him. That is perhaps the most significant point about the battle. The results are that the Russians have maintained thouposition in touch with the next group of their armies, retained their hold ot the trunk line, kept to their neighbourhood of Roumanw, and demoralised the enemy by defeat.

As this was the operation for which large reinforcements were brought uji the.other day from southern Hungary, the attack may bo regarded as having been intended as the necessary preparing of the way for a descent on Roumania. Victory would have been the first step towards Constantinople, and tho second step would have been an attempt to make ■ another Belgium of Roumania. Bulgaria would Ijavo been secured, and, therefore,.the third step would have been the overwhelming of the Serbian army. Had all this been done with the lightning speed which Germany can develop—it is one of the great features of her wonderful war machine —it is probable that Greece would have remained quiet. And then it would not have been long before our men would have been exchanging shots with troops of the Kaiser, and Hungarian grenadiers of tho Dual Kingdom. This train of possibilities is stopped peremptorily by-the defeat of von Manger’s army in Volhynia.

What precisely lias happened to von Mackenseh’s group of armies has not been explained. But that his main turning movement in the region of Brest-Litovsk has been frustrated there seems now no doubt. The German report still -speaks of him as “continuing” to defeat the Russians whenever they make a stand,” but the careful avoidance of details is significant, and the fact that the turning movement has failed is beyond doubt.

A Russian military estimate of the strength of the German armies is interesting at the present Juncture. In Galicia, i.e., the southern section, he places 600,000 men,, a million in the Brest-Litovsk and other regions—probably meaning as far as Vilna—and 300,000 at or near Riga, otherwise the Gourland section. It is in the Galician section that the enemy has suffered serious defeat, and the Russian retreat has made its crucial stand.

North of Brest-Litovsk there is no news. The retreat had got as far as Robin the other day, and von Mackensen was making his effort to break its line. No news to-day is therefore good news. Further north, the rest of the Russian line does not seem to be so successful. “The Times” correspondent at Petrograd reports rather gloomily. The wording of bis message indicates that the German plan of breaking through between • the groups of armies is being vigorously pursued, and as vigorously resisted. This correspondent hopes that these movements will not succeed—a strange

way of putting it. But when we note that he explains how the desperate lighting put up by the Russian rearguards at these points of attack is intended to obtain time for the retreating sections to get over the Niemen and co-ordinate with the other groups, wo realise that the first-named groups have not yet extricated themselves from the swamps and forests of the region west of Grodno. At all events the line is held well. But the importance of holding tho crucial points is suggested vividly by that expression of hope.

In Corn-land rhe Russian critic estimates the German strength at 300,000 —in tho neighbourhood of Milan, Riga and Friedwchstadt. This is more reasonable than the million which yesterday Marshal von Hindenburg was reported to have sent to tho north- From to-day’s message there does not appear to have been any such great battle as was mentioned yesterday. Evidently the Russians are holding firmly enough there. The doubtful section is between Vilna and Grodno, with a menace from Bieiostock. On the whole, though, this section might be more comfortable, the victory in the south, which has left the. Russian southern group of armies resting in Galicia on the lower Dniester —near the Roumanian border —has thrown a far brighter complexion over affairs on the Russian front.

A change in the Russian command is reported. General Russki, the brilliant conqueror of Galicia a year ago. who was invalided shortly before the capture of Przemysl, is appointed to the chief command of the Northern Annies, and General Yanuschevitz, >.he Grand Duke’s Chief of Staff, who has been directing operations—as Mr Washburn reported—since the fall ol Lemberg, has been sent to the Caucasus. Now there is nothing to require any special attention to the Caucasus just now, for the Turkish troops have been drawn to the Constantinople and Dardanelles regions. It seems a fair inference that his conduct of the great retreat has not been considered satisfactory, and may be regarded as one contributing cause of the uniform had fortune of the Russian armies. Very much was expected from his appoint icent, and ho has been superseded. Russki has been regarded from the first as the best of the Russian strategists and tacticians. He justified his reputation in Galicia, and after he was invalided the Russian misfortunes began. His restoration to health is a cause of rejoicing for Russia and her Allies, His appointment to the Northern command may he tho beginning of tho restoration of the Russian fortunes.' , ,

It is good to read at this time that the Japanese are doing much for the Allies, and especially for Russia. The amount, one Japanese authority is quoted as saying, will astonish the world when it is known. It is decidedly encouraging news.

There is suggestive, if not encouraging, news from England also. A message declares that the troops that have been crowding the streets of London are seen no more, and says that for the last month hundreds of thousands of troops have been, on the march all 'over the kingdom iu a businesslike fashion. At the same time there is talk of the assembling of the War Council, and the newspapers aio discussing the significance of the attacks so persistently made on the, railway junctions and important depots of the enemy in Flanders"’and France. men arc talking of - the increasing lengths of trenches occupied by the British armies. It is quite a 1 suggestive budget of news. It makes one believe that at last the long expected move in the west is about to begin. If this is right the advance in the west will just about synchronise with the victory in the east.

One point is noteworthy. How did all this about marching troops and the Council of War get past the censor? The only explanation possible is that «.hc publication was regarded as incapable of doing any harm whatever, which moans, of course, that these moving troops had got pretty near their destinations before the newspapers were allowed to know anything about them.

Another news, item is encouraging. Sir lan Hamilton, with his olncial sketch of the operations, fills up the gap in yesterday’s Dardanelles information, which was left to surmise. Sir lan reports a fresn attack on the Turkish positions on tho 27th and 28th ending in the capture of important tactical features commanding the Anafarta valley, and an appreciable gain on the side of the Australasian corps. The fighting, he adds, was chiefly severe bayonet work. Once more, then, have our men distinguished themselves. Germany says that in these aiiairs 100,000 British tloops were engaged. Whatever this estimate is worth, it is at all events a sign that the Allies are now playing a strong part in the Gallipoli Peninsula, a fact which accounts for these hne results. We have thus the official reference to the “big things happening” of yesterday, and the Turkish account of a serious attack on the Turkish positions. That the attack has had a great measure of success without attaining to complete command of the disputed ridge, may be Inferred from the wording" of the'General’s message. That the attack will be renewed shortly we can Tnther from his extreme reticence. That this may bring final victory considerably nearer, as the naval wireless of yesterday told us to expect, seems a legitimate hope.

The Balkan trouble is lightened' in one important particular. Roumatna has repeated her refusal to allow the munitions to pass through., to Turkey, taking her stand not on international law, which allows tho passage, but on her friendship for Italy, which Power has iust declared war on Turkey. This is certainly not acting according to “strict neutrality,” which Roumania declares her desire to maintain. It is a declaration in favour of Italy. As Italy is at war with Austria, the latter country would be justified in regarding the plea as a “casut belli.” Roumania, it is' evident, wishes to help the Entente, and appreciates the neighbourhood of the southern group.of Russian armies pivoting on the lower Dniester. Virtually she has defied Austria and Germany.

As negotiations have .been pressed vigorously by tho Entente Powers with tho other Balkan States as well as Roumania, this virtual defiance must bo regarded as tho first reaping of tho seed sown. The allegation of the increasing reasonableness of Serbia must therefore be considered corroborated by this defiance. And the failure of the Turco-Bulganan arrangement is probably another corroboration. Tho favourable speech by the Greek Prime Minister some days ago is probably a

further corroboration. Dr Dillon, a great authority on the Balkan situation—one of the best—seems to regard the position as almost hopeless, for Jie advises a recourse to trade pressure through a differential tariff, a thing recruiting time, when there is no time. But the virtual defiance of Rouniama is a fact. And another fact is that the reasonableness of Serbia about Macedonian territory and an outlet to the sea was the pivot on which the settlement of th? Balkan difficulty depended. In our opinion the reasonableness is proved by tho facts which we have jtist leviewed. Roumama would not have defied Austria if she had thought that Bulgaria was likely to help Turkey, and Bulgaria might have helped Turkey if Serbia had remained unreasonable, while Greece, with Bulgaria and Koumania and Serbia undecided, would have probably remained silent.

It is a fair inference, at all events from the speech of M.Venizelos, from i lie failure of the Turco-Bulgarian Treaty, and tho virtual defiance by Roumama of Austria and Germany, that the Balkan trouble has ceased to be a trouble to tho Quadruple hintente. For a matter so complicated, the reasoning IS > wo must admit, sketchy. .But it seems to us to be the only reasoning which compasses the facts of. the situation so far as they have transpired. Tho defiance of Roumania is, of coufsb, the strong fact, without which tho others could not have been bound in the inference. • • • From this it is evident that the chances of tho Allies in the campaign of Gallipoli are not regarded by any means as hopeless as the German Office professes to consider they are. They are nearer tho theatre of tho operations, and they can do what Germany and Austria cannot afford to do—they can take facts -as they find them. • • • The submarine piracy of Germany is finished, and without any conditions from America. Count Berustorff’s Note to Mr Lansing settles the matter beyond any peradveuture. Germany will not sink liners without warning and' without safety for non-combatants, provided they attempt neither escape nor resistance. The condition probably means attempts after the warning to stop, fpr that is the customary procedure of all war vessels. This result has been, it must bo admitted, produced by the firmness tof the American President, who has won a great victory, for international law' and human rights. The American press declare simply that tho Germans have ceased to commit piracy and murder because it did not pay. Thar is probable. But whether it is so w not, the' President certainly forced them to desist. If corroboration were wanted of the German decision. we have it in the medical verdict that the Grand Admiral Chief Butcher is suffering from 'overwork and takes a long test. Tho head of a navy which never does anything, overworked! No. The Kaiser has gone to Canossa, and von Tirpitz has gone to Coventry.