AUSTRALIAN MINISTRY.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXVI, Issue 20333, 14 August 1929, Page 11

AUSTRALIAN MINISTRY.

FATE IN THE BALANCE.

ARBITRATION CHANGES."

DISSENT IN THE RANKS.

[from our own correspondent.]

SYDNEY, Aug. 8

There are many who think that tho lifo of the Federal Government is in the balance, and in certain quarters that are usually well-informed of the trend of political events preparations are being made for an early election. When the Government faces Canberra at the session that will open next Wednesday, it will have a majority of nine only, and its programme will include several matters that are highly contentious.

ITence the rumours that a cave has been formod among supporters of the Government with the idea of ousting the BrucePage Ministry, which has lost a great deal of its popularity with the fickle public since the Treasurer has been unable to show a surplus on his Budget figures. In any case, thero are at least three nonLabour members of the House of Representatives upon which tho Government can place no reliance, and amonct these tho outstanding figure is Mr. W. M. Hughes, a very pronounced thorn in the side of Mr. Bruce.

Parties Ranged for Battle. The fate of the Government will depend upon the reception of its proposals to retire almost completely from the field of industrial arbitration. This question is at last arousing the country. Both sides have ranged themselves for the battle, and the Federal Unions have appointed a special publicity agent to press their claims for a continuation of the existing system. Of course, this campaign will bo reflected in the discussions in Parliament. Every member of Parliament has been appealed to to do his utmost to retain the Federal Court, and there is a distinct suggestion that many a Government supporter will not support the Government in this vital matter.

However, it may be a different matter when the party whip is heard, and when Mr. Bruee makes his promised announcement that he is prepared to stand or fall bv the acceptance of his policy. He says that there will be no turning back as far as he is concerned, and if the followers of the Government are not prepared to accept his advice, which has been given, to the best of his knowledge, in the interests of the country as a whole, well, they will have to get a new chief. Expectation? o! Ministry.

Actually, the Ministry expects to have a majority of three or four on the Arbitration Abolition Bill. If the bill fails to pass, an election is the only alternative, because the defeat of the Government on this issue would mean the resignation of the Government, and not the passing of the reins to a new driver. Mi'. Bruce had taken the precaution to advise his known supporters of his intended move, and it is understood that the nature of the rsplies he received made him mora determined to go forward with his policy.

There has been any amount of wirepulling since then, but that has succeeded in changing the ,intentions of only one or two of the Government supporters. Nevertheless, the Ministry expects to have a rough tim?,. and it can rest assured that the strong Labour Party will do its utmost to obstruct the adoption of the new policy. However, Mr. Bruce has his heavy artillery ready, and it would seem that he has the numbers that are going to assure him victory in the end. But is it any wender that preparations are proceeding for an early election ? The Government is by no means secure.

The Second Bijf Issue. The second big issue concerns, the finances of the Commonwealth, regarding which the Treasurer, Dr. Earle Page, will have something very gloomy to say. It is not expected that • the Budget, which will be brought down early in the session, will contain any surprises. Increased excise duties are certain to he levied, but there will be no new taxation. If such were proposed the Government would seal its own fate. It would be impossible to think of a move that would be more unpopular with the politician and with the public as a whole. Evidently, it is feared that there will be higher duties on spirits, for thousands of gallons have been taken out of bond during the last few weejss, much to the delight of the Treasury, which has had an unexpected windfall at a time wherumoney was hadly needed.

However, the Government is going to come in for a great deal of criticism on all sides, and Dr. Page, already unpopular among the Nationalists who are on the "Outer," is going to have his most difficult session. No doubt he will continue to smile as usual. He always smiles, but never whole-heartedly. It is an annoying smile—for bis opponents. Then there is a proposal that the salaries of members should be reduced, but this does not come from the Government. Members now. rereceive £IOOO a year, and the suggestion is that in timo of financial stress, such as the present, they should consent to a reduction of £250. The idea appeals to a verv few—those who have independent

means. It can be truthfully said that most of the members of the Labour Party do not uant an election, but what a delight they are going to take iii watching tho Govern* went steer through a difficult course! The session is going to be crammed full of interest, and would be a great draw, rivalling the talkies, if it were staged in Sydney instead of in isolated Canberra.