FALLING BIRTH-RATE.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXVI, Issue 20177, 11 February 1929, Page 11

FALLING BIRTH-RATE.

STATISTICS FOR LAST YEAR.

AUCKLAND'S POOR POSITION.

INFANTILE MORTALITY LOWER

The statistics of births and deaths for tlio 14 urban areas of New Zealand for 1928 present three prominent features. There is a fairly substantial fall in the birth rate, a slight rise in the death rate, and a heavy fall in the already phenomenally low infant-mortality rate. The urban areas forming tho basis of these statistics include over 50 per cent, of tho population of New Zealand, and therefore give a reasonably accurate indication of tho trend of the various rates for the Dominion as a whole. is worthy of note, however, that the Dominion rates are invariably higher for births, and lower for deaths and infant mortality, than those recorded for tho aggregate of the urban areas. The figures for urban areas for the six years, 1923 to 1928 inclusive, giving births and deaths per 1000 of population, and infant mortality per 1000 births, are as follows: —

In funt Ycnr. nirtlis. Deaths. Mortality. 192:1 . . 10.58 0.57' 50.1fi 19*24 . . 19.58 8.85 41.89 1925 . . 18.95 8.85 44.70 192 C. .. 19.24 9.3:1 44.47 1027 . . 18.29 B.9'i 45.12 1928 . . 17.73 9.03 41.40 The Decline in Births.

The comparatively heavy decline in the urban birth rate for 1928 indicates that the birth rate for the wholo country will establish an unenviable Dominion record. The Dominion figures for the first nine months of 1928 strengthen the prophecy. A closer analysis of (he situation shows that from 1924 to 1926, inclusive, Auckland recorded the highest birth rate of the four centres, but pride of place has been ceded to Wellington for the last two years. Wellington was the only centre to show an increased birth rate last year—from 18.55 in 1927 to 18.98 in 1928. Dunedin, showing the lowest figure for 1928, and Auckland, second lowest, both declined by 1.15, and Chrisfcchurch fell 0.12 per 1000 of population.

The aggregate death rate for the urban areas in 1928 shows an increase of only 0.07 per 1000 of population. No great variation in the Dominion rate is expected. While there were no epidemics during the past year, scarlet fever, diphtheria and influenza took a greater toll of life than in the previous year. Other diseases showing notable increases were tuberculosis, cancer, heart diseaso and pneumonia. Deaths from motor and railway accidents increased, but those from measles, diseases of the nervous system, bronchitis, senility, and diseases of early infancy decreased.

Auckland's Low Death Rate. A comparison between the four centres shows the Auckland urban area as recording the lowest death rate for the year under review and Dunedin the highest. With tho exception of 1926 the Auckland death rate shows a continuous downward movement, the reverse being observed for .Wellington with the exception of 1927.

The rate of natural increase—the difference between tho birth and death rates—gives a clearer picture of the progress of the different centres. The following table gives this rate per 1000 of population from 1925:

Centre. 10-25. 1920. 1927. 1925. Auckland .. 10.00 9.G5 B.BS 7.81 Wellington .. 9.C0 10.0S 10.11 9.54 Ohristchurch 9.17 8.90 8.13 8.19 Dunedin .. 7.51 G. 91 5.6'2 5.4-1

From 1926 Wellington has occupied the premier position viewed in the light of natural increase. Dunedin maintains a consistently low rate, which is still falling, but it did not fall so rapidly last year as that of Auckand, which is the second lowest after Dunedin. Actually, the Auckland rate dropped by 1.04 per 1000 of population last year, Wellington fell 0.57, "Dunedin 0.18 and Christchurch increased by 0.06. Infant Mortality Falling.

The position respecting infant mortality in urban areas is by far the most satisfactory feature of the 1928 year. The declino from 45.12 per 1000 live b'.rths in 1927 to the unprecedentedly low figure of 41.40 in 1928 is a remarkable achievement. An unsatisfactory aspect of the urban statistics for 1928, however, is the increase in still births, the rate rising from 25.5 per 1000 births in 1927 to 30.0 per 1000 in 1928. For the year Wellington again leads the centres with the lowest infantile mortality figure?, with Auckland next best, although not as good as in 1927, then Christchurch, which improved on 1927, and last Dunedin, which has been steadily retrogressing since 1924. It. is forecast in Iho monthly abstract of statistics giving these details that the complete Dominion figures of infantile mortality for 1928 will show some improvement on the record low rate of 38.74, recorded for 1927.