WORLD'S POPULATION.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXIV, Issue 19736, 8 September 1927, Page 15

WORLD'S POPULATION.

VAST RECENT INCREASES. THE PROBLEM OF MIGRATION. SERIOUS MENACE TO PEACE. < An international conference is being held at Geneva to discuss the ever-grow-ing problem of the rapid increase in the population of the world and the parallel questions of the production of food and of the feasibility or possibility of checking or controlling the rate of increase of births. A speaker at tlie conference, i)r. J. ftl. East, a biologist from Harvard University, calculated that at the present rate of increase there would, within 100 years, be 5,000,000,000 people on the globe. While such calculations are necessarily somewhai speculative, the figures of the population at different past times have been more reliably calculated and certainly the great increase in recent gen erations would seem to show that Dr. East's figure may not be exaggerated A well-known French scientist. Professor Maurice Cauvel, calculates that there were not more than 50,000,000 beings on the earth at the beginning of the Christian era and that in the year 1800 there were 600,000,000. Since that date the estimated increase in 125 years has been reckoned at 1,000,000,000, giving a present population of some 1,600,000.000. A German writer, Herr Alois Fischer, estimates that these figures are too low; he puts the population at some 125,000,000 more.

The former checks on the increase in population have in a large measure lost their power. The causes of declines were wars and especially the consequences of war, epidemics and hunger, which caused greater mortality by far than the wars themselves, and natural catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods. But the great increase in the birth rate has far more than made good the losses in catastrophies; for instance, Japan in September, 1923, lost about 140,000 in the disastrous earthquake, but this huge figure represented only a fifth of the annual surplus of births in Japan. War Losses Already Made Up. Not only have medical science and sanitation decreased the mortality from disease, but they have reduced it in more advanced countries in a more rapid ratio than that of the reduction in births, which some of these countries have experienced. While the war quickly reduced the population of Europe by 13.000,000 about equal to l-14Uth of the population of the world —whereas all the wars of the 19th century caused losses of some 4,000,000 only, and the influenza epidemic of 1918 killed 20,000,000 throughout the world, especially in India, these losses were quickly made good, and in 1920 the populations increased in all continents. Britain has more than 2,000,000 more people than in 1914; Italy has as many, and her population has a natural increase of 400,000 a year, the surplus of births over deaths. There have been larger relative increases in North and South America and in the Pacific. Th problem of Italy, which was referred to at the Population Conference at Geneva; is acute, and is likely to lead to much political disturbance. 1* or years the emigration from Italy has been over 200,000, but this is far less than the annual increase in population, and Italy is- rapidly filling, or is full. And her population must emigrate. Italy cannot, like America, create industries capableookf k supporting her surplus population. She has nono of the indispt nsable raw materials of modern civilisation, coal, oil, minerals and rubber. 'lhe United States quota laws allowed Italy 2248 immigrants m 1924-5. In 1922-23 the immigrants totalled 42,845. Problem of Italian Expansion. Where can they go ? The nearest field is the North African coast, especially the parts belonging to France, as 'lunisia. France does not send colonists there; on the contrary, thousands of Italians have migrated, to France herself in recent years. The noted writer Signor Luigi Villari, in his book, "The Fascist Experiment," wrote: "There are rich countries belonging to countries whose inhabitants have no surplus population with which to people them, and who can only do so by means of emigrants from Italy .herself. Why should not some of these colonies be assigned to Italy ? Unless some satisfaction is given to Italy's aspirations toward colonial expansion a cause of international unrest will remain." Signor Mussolini has, ot course, turned his energies to the problem, "Italy has set to work more seriously than any other country to grapple with the problem of emigration and colonisation," says Dr. E. Classen, a distinguished Swedish writer, in his recent informative book, "The New Colonial Policy," "There exists a certain rivalry between Rome and Geneva regarding international questions of migration. Mussolini called an international conference at Rome in May, 1924, on immigration and emigration problems. The International Labour Bureau at Geneva saw in the Italian conference an unwelcome competitor to its own committee." "Italian Fascism, says Dr. Kcv, "recognises no other principle than that of sacred egoism. Italy takes no notice of Geneva, but relies on its armv and navy as a shield of security. The present 'istribution of the wealth of the world is an ini'ustice which Italy insists on rectifying." If the populations of certain countries increase beyond what they can economically support, then, says Dr. Key, war must finally come. If the economic maxima are exceeded, "it is clear that no form of international pacifism can prevent the outbreak of new wars in the future."