THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 8, 1923. VITAL STATISTICS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LX, Issue 18577, 8 December 1923, Page 10

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 8, 1923. VITAL STATISTICS.

On the indubitable word of the Government Statistician, the Dominion has fallen from its high estate in population statistics. Formerly New Zealand's rate of natural increasethe excess of births over deaths—exceeded that of all other countries. It is still high, and exceeded in few other countries, thanks to a lower death rate than obtains elsewhere in the world;; but it has nevertheless fallen to little more than half the rate of former days. The official figures are as follo.w

In ■ considering these figures, it should be noted that they take no account of Maori births or deaths. Some instructive facts, for purposes of ■wide comparison, emerge on a broad study of them. There has been a steady and serious decline in the birth-rate, a fall to a little over half the rate that obtained fifty years ago. There has been also a decline in the death-rate; but this was originally low, and could not counterbalance the decline in the birth-rate. When account is taken of immigration figures, _ the recent movement of the Dominion's population appears in a wholly unfavourable light. The increase during 1922 was 2.05 per cent, of the mean population, whereasin spite of an augmented average of immigrants in the years 1920-22 as compared with years before the war— increase for those years was 2.43 per cent., and for 1909-13 2.66 per cent. This slackening increase is serious in any event; it is doubly serious in a country urgently needing population.

It may be objected that a natural increase rate of even 14.40 per thousand is higher than obtains in many countries. It is. The highest ever reached in Europe has been less than 19 per thousand; Rumania, Bulgaria and Russia have furnished the highest of these, which are all due to periods of unusually high birth-rates in years ranging from 1910 to 1913. The rate for England and Wales has been only as high as 10.3, and Scotland's highest was 12. France has never had a higher rate than 5.7, while Germany's experience has been a close parallel to Britain's. The French natural increase has been prejudicially affected by both a low birthrate and a high death-rate; Germany's death-rate has been higher than Britain's, but this has been counterbalanced by a correspondingly higher birth-rate. Compared with such figures, New Zealand's at first sight appear favourable. But when comparison is made of New Zealand's growth with that of other overseas British 'territories, there is found reason for disquiet. Taking the ten "years, 1912-21, the figures of total increase are—Australia, 22.04 per cent. ; Canada, 21.95 per cent. ; New Zealand, 20.87 per cent.; South Africa (white population), 19.06 per cent. When it is remembered that New Zealand's population is predominantly British and that the British nation, during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, showed a rate of growth without parallel in history, this percentage comparison confirms the slackening shown in the rate of natural increase.

If the white peoples as a whole showed to-day a similar tendency to a lower rate of increase, there might be some grain of comfort for the scientists, statesmen and others gravely interested in the question. That tendency is not apparent. There is a steady march of the white races to numerical domination in the world. While the Chinese and the natives of India increase but slowly, and the black race shows no rapid power of multiplication in Africa, the white peoples are increasing with a relatively high rapidity. Excepting the French and the Irish, practically no white people is to-day increasing at a

smaller rat© than 10 annually to the thousand. Even the Japanese, despite an advancing rate of natural increase, are not increasing faster than the white peopiles. For New Zealand to show a falling natural increase of so steady, not to say steep, a character is to show signs of dropping to the end of the procession, if not of falling out of it. In a period when the growth of the world's white population has been as impressive a fact as the industrial revolution was a century and a-half ago, and a prodigious war's toll of death but, momentarily checked that growth, this Dominion, despite a phenomenally low death-rate, has been seriously dropping back. The outlook has gathered seriousness since the war, in a period when other white peoples have shown a remarkable return to pre-war increase. No more difficult problem faces the Dominion. Remedy will be difficult to find, for the causes are deep-seated. An arousal of conscience alone can touch the problem helpfully. To state it is the first step toward solution, and the Statistician's figures make a definite starting point for practical consideration.

Kate of Births. Deaths. Natural Period Rate Rate Increase per 1000 per 1000 per 1000 living. living. living. 1871-1875 .. 39.83 12.67 -7.21 18T6-1880 . . 41.21 11-80 29.41 1881-1885 ... 36.3b 10.9o -0.41 1886-1890 .. 31.lo 9.85 -1.30 1891-1895 .. 27.68 lO.lo 17.53 1896-1900 .. II 9.o5 1 1901-1905 .. 26.60 J.91 16.69 IQfUv-lQlO . # 27.06 II i 1911-1915 . . 25.98 9.22 16.76 1916-1920 . . 24.32 10.-3 13.53 1001 23 34 8.69 I4.b*> 1922 :: :: tn *-•* 14 - 10 .