A WAR IN MAY.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXV, Issue 9002, 15 March 1888, Page 5

A WAR IN MAY.

PREDICTION OF RUSSIAN GENERALS. GREAT MILITARY ACTIVITY. RUSSIA AND BULGARIA PREPARING TO CROSS THE DANUBE. BULGARIA'S REPLY TO THE PORT. ITALY'S POLICY. [press association.] London, March 13. The St. James's Gazette, in an article on the situation, states that Russian generals predict the outbreak of war in May. Latest intelligence from the Black Sea ports state that the massing of troops is being proceeded with with great activity. London, March 14. The Standard states that Russia is preparing to intervene in Bulgarian affairs, and with this object she is massing her troops in Bessarabia, and will enter Bulgaria by ascending the Danube. London, March 13. I The reply of Bulgaria to the Porte's note objecting to the election of Prince i Ferdinand on the ground of its alleged | illegality is stated to be very decided in its tone. Signor Crispi, the Italian Premier, states that Italy's policy in Bulgaria will be different from that of Germany. The London Star of January 17 contained the following :—We have received special information from Vienna fully confirming the alarming intelligence that two Russiain cavalry regiments have arrived at Luck, that a large military bakery has been established at Rovno, and that Warsaw is being stored with explosives. The Standard s Vienna correspondent also reports a movement along the whole of Russia's western frontiers, Bessarabia included, with the aim of forcing Prince Ferdinand's resignation in case the Porte refuses to order his removal. Our information is that these movements of Russia are largely defensive, and that the real aggressor is Austria. The author of "The Present Position of European Politics" says that " Austria will do all she can to avoid war with Russia, but if she avoids it, she will probably be greatly humbled in the process." Our own news testifies to a vital change in Austrian policy. Austria, in the belief of the highest diplomatic circles in Vienna, • has decided to attack Russia in May. ■ Of course she could not dream of defending her long Galician frontier of 720 miles, still less of attacking Russia from that quarter, without Germany's aid and countenance, and this, we believe, she will secure. In case war broke out in Galicia, Russia's natural plan of campaign would bo to push immense swarms of Cossacks across the frontier, but the Austrian aim would be to anticipate this move with her own highly-efficient but less numerous cavalry. An important question is Italy's attitude. Her alliance would be necessary for the protection of Vienna, and in face of the tension between Russia and Italy in the East, it would probably be forthcoming. The military powers of the nations that) are thus preparing to hurl huge masses ot men at each other are thus estimated :— Russia has, on a peace footing, 770,000 men, and on a war footing '2,200,000. According to the author of " The Present; Position of Foreign Politics," the Russian army is still larger, and a complete mobilisation would bring out a paper force of six millions of men. Austria has a nominal peace footing of about 300,000 officers and men, and a war footing of about 1,100,000. The new Landsturin law will finally add about a million to these figures.