Favourites’ Unlucky Run In Winter Cup

Northern Advocate, 29 July 1939, Page 11

Favourites’ Unlucky Run In Winter Cup

The Winter Cup, which will be run at Riccarton on August 8, has not been a good race for the favourites. It is interesting to inspect the order of favouritism in the Winter Cup bade to 1915, the first year in which the records were allowed to publish favouritism figures. In the 24 contests since then, there have been only two favourite winners, Le Choucas (bracketed with the better-fancied Nippy) in 1926, and Fast Passage in 1932. In the same period there have been only three second favourite successes, those of Banksia in 1915, Historic in 1929, and Kahikatoa in 1931; and two third favourite successes, those of Toxeuma in 1930 and Epris in 1935. When it is added that there have also been only two wins by fourth favourites, two wins by fifth favourites, and no win yet by a sixth favourite,

in all eleven victories by the first six orders of favouritism in 24 contests since 1915, well under half, it will be realised what a profitable race this has been for the luckier dividend-seeker. Mount Boa and Princess Doreen in the last six years both paid round about two-thirds of a century, and two years ago Catalogue scored at nearly a quarter of a century. On the majority of occasions the favourite has been nowhere. In some years all the placegetters have been remote choices, as witness Bon Spec’s year (1922), when the winner was fifteenth choice, the second horse (Some Kid) tenth choice, and the third horse (Will Oakland) twelfth choice. The public were still wide of the mark in 1927. when Nincompoop and Assurance, twentieth and fourteenth favourites respectively in the field of 22, followed the seventeenth favourite Solferite home at neck margins. Last year .Catalogue was 5-li favourite, Waitaka 13-12 favourite, and Alma 3-4 favourite, with the both-way favourite, Great Hope, fifth. ! Time and again the Winter Cup winner has been a horse who failed when well fancied a race or two beforehand.

Such is the task that confronts investors on the Winter Cup next Tuesday week. There is a lot of form in the race, and also many horses in the field who have recently been beaten when well supported. The safest rule from the history of past contests seems to be to find the horses who are most liable to show improvement