CHINA’S LONG CIVIL WAR MAY END IN FEW MONTHS

Gisborne Herald, Volume LXXVI, Issue 23116, 1 December 1949, Page 10

CHINA’S LONG CIVIL WAR MAY END IN FEW MONTHS

TIONTT KONG. Sevious fighting on the rnainhind in China’s long drawn-out civil war will he over in two or three months time, according to military observers in Hong Kong. They make this forecast with the proviso that little is accurately predictable in China, and that their guess may be no better than that, of anyone else, but they think that by the new year the victorious Communist legions will have stormed down the coast to the Indo-China border and will have carved large and vital portions out of the remaining Nationalist inland territory in south and south-west China.

Basing their views on the sorry tnle of Nationalist retreat and defeat’ over the past 18 months, these observers foresee the formerly enormous armies of Chiang Kai-shek being reduced to a whipped rabble, without leadership, without unity and without hope. They think the remnants wit Ibe split up into isolated bands holding out in the wild and almost inaccessible mountains of the west. Already the Nationalists have been pushed back to and beyond Canton, the city from which Chiang Kai-shek led his forces north on the famous revolutionary march of 1927. They have lost practically all the important railways and waterways in China, and the serviceable airfieds at their disposal are rapidly dwindling in number. Colourful Propaganda Talk of re-opening the famous wartime Burma Road as a means of supply is regarding by most observers as a colourful piece of propaganda rather than as a practicable proposition likely to be put into effect. Money is running shoit. and in proportion to the amount of ground the Nationalists have lost so have they lost the sources from which their finances were drawn and the same old jealous feulds that have wracked the Nationalist cause almost since its inception are still robbing it of a purposeful united leadership. Even so, critics who earlier predicted that acting-President Li Tsungjen and General Pai Chung-hsi, unhappy junior partners with Chaing Kai-shek in the Nationalist hierachy, would desert the Nationalist banner and privately treat with the Communists have so far been confounded.

The Nationalists still appear a formidable force on paper. Current estimates place their total strength at about 750.000 men against an active Communist force of J,250,000, but the more Communists have the inside running, for the Nationalist strength is attenuated round the outside of a vast curve stretching from the Chusan Island, near Shanghai, deep into the south and round to the northern borders of inland Szechuan. Nationalist Troops on Islands

Of the Nationalist forces almost half ere lost to the mainland battle for they are stationed at the blockade base in the Chusans or on the island of Taiwan (Formosa), and are unlikely to be thrown into the fight. The Kwangtung Commander, General Yu Han-mou, is at present engaged in withdrawing about 100.000 men to Kwangchowan, former French-leased territory near Hainan Island, in the far south. General Pai Chung-hsi still commands an absolute maximum of 200.000 troops in Kwangsi while there are probably another 150.000 under General Hu Tsung-nan along the Upper Yangtse. Among the mainland troops only a section of those under Pai Chung-hsi are credited with being first-class fighting soldiers, but even that view is suppeet for it was formed so long ago by foreign observers that it may now be only an empty legend. These troops have retreated so much and fought so little in recent months that an accurate appraisal of their worth is difficult. At all events few people would now consider them capable of seriously opposing the Communist tide. Only in Taiwan and perhaps in Hainan Island is it likely that the Nationalists can hold out for any considerable period. The Taiwan garrison under General Chen Cheng numbers about 200.000 and will probably be swelled by withdrawals from islands off the mainland which are at present precariously held. Already, for example, heavy Communist pressure is being exerted on the Chusans where about 80,000 troops are stationed. Resented by Formosans In Taiwan the Nationalists are fairly well entrenched behind the protection of sea and air superiority but theirs is an unhappy command among a native people who hate their presence and offer no co-operation. \ Taiwan is a complicated picture in-; tevnationally. Taken by Japan from' China many years ago its fate now hinges on the signing of a peace treaty between the Allied powers and Japan, with Nationalist China meanwhile acting somewhnte in the role of trustee. When a treaty will be written is still undetermined. A Communist occupation of Taiwan, in the meantime, would at once settle by fait accompli the island's ownership and at the same time cause widespread western embarrassment, particularly by ifs effect on American Pacific strategy. Most observers believe that the Communists ultimately will be able to cut through the Nationalist air and sea screen and invade Taiwan. There is no doubt that they intend trying. Even now Communist agents are reported to be in Hongkong seeking to purchase marine cnignes for converting sailing junks into motorized crafts. The burning question internationally stands- Will the Communist be able to oecupv Taiwan before its fate is j decided by the Allied Powers acrossthe Japanese peace tabic.