Russians Would Have Initial Advantage In War

Greymouth Evening Star, 14 October 1948, Page 8

Russians Would Have Initial Advantage In War

(From E. G. WEBBER, Press Association Correspondent.)

LONDON, October 13.

Recent articles in British newspapers discuss conditions in Russia and the probable strength and course of action of the Soviet Union in- the event of war with the Western Powers. , The military correspondent • of the Glasgow Herald says that Russia’s present great mobilised strength would give her an initial advantage, but that this advantage would minish and disappear unless she could gain an early victory. In any war with the Western Powers she would be deprived of the great material and technical assistance given to her in the last-war by her allies and would have to depend on her own resources, already greatly damaged and strained by her recent exertions.

She would, moreover, be forced to face the prospect of war on a number of fronts.

The correspondent suggests that there are two opposing schools of thought in Russia—a younger military school which favours a, quick offensive war and a more conservative school still largely influenced by the teachings of Clausewitz and inclined to rely on the traditional Russian policy of defence in depth followed by massive counter-attacks. From a propaganda point of view, says the correspondent, the political leaders would rather that Russia was attacked than that she had to take the initiative, as in that even they would find it simpler to mobilise public opinion behind them. Military Manpower The present population of Russia, allowing for war losses and territorial gains, says the correspondent, is about 200,000,000 which means that the Soviet Unio nhas about 20,000,000 men available for war service. This means that, fully mobilised, the Russians could possibly count on a total of 600 divisions, including 200 armoured divisions. The Russian air force at present claims to maintain, a front-line strength of 20,000 aeroplanes, including jet fighters and long-range bombers, but it is very difficult to know how dependable these figures are. The correspondent adds that in the event of war Russian strategy would be partly offensive and partly defensive. An early attempt would probably be made to overrun . Western Europe and to take the offensive in. the Middle East. Most estimates agree that Russia has about 1,000,000 men mobilised on her European frontiers or within easy reach of them. Russian strength in. the eastern zone of Germany is believed to be seven divisions. Frictions Thought Likely A special correspondent of the Yorkshire- Post, Walter Kolarz, who has written several books on Russia, believes that substantial frictions are likely to arise behind the Iron Curtain in the event of war. He says that the prospect of another war is likely to have a particular effect upon the Russian peasantry, who are striving desperately to overtake the devastation of the recent war. A substantial section of Russian intellectuals who, in spite of their professions of Stalinist orthordoxy, realise how far Russia is handicapped technically in any conflict with the West, is also likely to view the prospect with the gravest misgivings. Today, moreover, nearly half of the total population of the Soviet Union is made up of “border groups,” many of which have their own specific national grievances against the Soviet svstem. " A specigl correspondent of the Financial ' Times, after examining relations between Russia and her satellites, expresses the opinion that there has so far been little real attempt to consolidate the economic and productive systems of Russia’s satellites with those of the Soviet Union, and that several of these satellite States have very dubious and unpredictable relationships with, each other. A typical example is the Russian, failure to restore trade on the Danube.

Resources of SatelSites

At the moment, says the correspondent, the Russians seem, content to be assured that the governments of the satellites are politically reliable. It is no doubt true that the resources of the satellites are available to Russia, buf fit is doubtful in the extreme whether Russia has yet taken steps to co-ordinate the employment of these resources. The diplomatic correspondent of the Sunday Times says that reliable reports all confirm that the cost of living in Russia, in spite of Soviet propaganda, is increasing by leaps and bounds. Recent reductions in prices, which were much publicised, affect only the small proportion of the community which has sufficient money to buy in co-operative stores. Prices of utilities and transport services, however, which affect the whole population, have increased from 10 to 100 per cent. On the other hand, most reliable estimates agree that. last season’s grain crop in the Soviet'Union surpassed even the recent established in 1940, which was one of the best crop years in Russian history.