U-BOAT THREAT

Greymouth Evening Star, 19 March 1941, Page 9

U-BOAT THREAT

GERMAN STRENGTH DISCUSSED. LONDON, February 26. The Royal Navy is not dismayed by Hitler’s announcement on Monday that he would launch a fierce new attack on Britain’s seaborne traffic “within the next five days.” The greatest speculation is on the number of submarines Germany possesses for the onslaught. There have been many wildly-exaggerated estimates regarding the number of U-boats in commission. Such a figure as 600—one of the lowest of these estimates —is, I learn, between four and five times as large as the possible output of the German shipyards and engineering works.

This figure takes no account of any destruction which R.A.F. raids on shipyards may have caused among new construction, nor of the inevitable delays in building which these raids have caused in loss of material and plant. If the Germans have 150 new submarines completed they have achieved a remarkable feat. A much more probable figure is between 100 and 120, and it must always be remembered that in a prolonged campaign, the Germans cannot expect to maintain at sea more than one-third of her effective U-boats al any given period. It would be possible, perhaps, for Hitler to send out two-thirds of the available U-boats for the first week of the new campaign with a view to making a dramatic initial haul, but in the ensuing weeks there inevitably would be smaller numbers operating. The reasons would be (1) the normal needs of rest for the normal tuningup of engines. On an average, therefore, probably not more than 40 U-boats actually* would be at work on the trade routes at any one time. Navy men consider that even that figure can be attained only on. the assumption that there are no losses among the large number the Navy is expected to encounter in the first fury of the new attack. One reason for the smaller tonnage losses in recent weeks is the withdrawal from the Atlantic of a large proportion of U-boats in order to intensively train new crews. Naval men estimate that, even including Italian submarines, there have been less than 20 U-boats scouring the sea routes, especially on Britain’s northwestern approaches.

NEW NAZI CREWS. In. the last few months the submarine school at Kiel has been busy putting at least 400,000 untrained men through intensive cruises, in the comparatively safe waters of the Baltic. This may be an under-estimate, especially if Berlin reports that the new type of U-boat is smaller than the normal ocean-going craft are true. Such training represents a formidable task, as the Germans discovered in 1917, when more than 20 front-line submarines had to be withdrawn to provide instructors. Even then, it is known that throughout the later months of the last war, U-boats carried between five and eight per cent, of absolutely untrained personnel. , The intensification of Germany’s sea offensive will give the Royal Navy a chance to achieve again the figures of destruction attained during the opening stages of this war—a rate which tremendously shocked Berlin. The German Naval Staff in those days would not believe that the Royal Navy had developed and perfected the Asdic detector, which greatly added to the perils of under-sea raiders. When they did appreciate the Asdic’s effectiveness, it was the paramount task of German scientists to find a counter-measure.

A belief exists among Royal Navy men that the Germans have succeeded in evolving something, but that they are still a pace or two behind our offensive, because experience in the war showed points in which the Asdic could be improved, making this detector gear even more effective than when we startled Germany with it in the Autumn of 1939.