THE ALL ABSORBING TOPIC.

Greymouth Evening Star, 6 December 1911, Page 2

THE ALL ABSORBING TOPIC.

WHO SHALL BE ELECTED? HOW MATTERS SHOULD PAN OUT. [BY telegraph-special to the star.] DUNEDIN. This Day. Practically everything is subordinate to the Thursday contests and at every street corner the question is persistently heard “What in your opinion will be the result,” nor is this topic confined to the thoroughfares. In the trams on the railways and in shops and wholesale establishments electioneering dominates everything. My task in attempting to forecast Thursday’s issue is luckily restricted to Otago and Southland, where local knowledge is expected to prove of service. THE CITY SEATS. Fjorn the beginning of the campaign I have steadfastly maintained that ; there would be no alteration in the representation of the four city seats, and though this prediction would have i been laughed to scorn a few weeks ago, it may be said .to fairly indicate the present political barometer reading. DUNEDIN NORTH. Dunedin North has three candidates. —Mr G. M. Thomson (Opposition), Mr J. Loudon (Government and ! Deputy Chairman of the Otago Harbour Board), and Mr R. R. Douglas (Independent). Indications point to a secand ballot with the late member opposed by either Mr Loudon or Mr Douglas. The fact that the last named is a resident of the electorate and that he has twice been returned in recent years to represent Leith Ward in the Council, causes me to think that he will be the survivor in the final heat. DUNEDIN WEST.

Dunedin West is also a triangular contest, the Hon. J. A. Millar being opposed by Mr H. D. Bedford (prohibitionist and Oppositionist) and Mr J. Munro (Socialist). The political Labour League to the general surprise, after repeated, conferences decided not to make any Labour selection for this seat, the two opponents of the Minister of Railways seemingly being equally persona grata. Mr Munro’s candidature cannot be regarded as a factor other than possibly necessitating a second ballot. That he will poll sufficient to render this necessary I am disinclined to think. It is presumed that some 8.500 votes will be recorded. Given a fine day Mr Millar’s Committee anticipate that 4500 votes will be cast in his favor. Mr Bedford claims to have promises from 60 per cent of the electors on the roll (11,000), and his party claim that after allowing a liberal discount their candidate is certain to ensure a second ballot, even if nt, does not win outright, but recognising that Mr Milar’s Committee are the more experienced, and in view of the results of their canvasses in previous contests, I place more reliability on their reports. The Minister will undoubtedly head the poll, and in my opinion with a sufficient majority to entitle him to be declared duly elected on Thursday next. Probably the poll for this electorate will be the heaviest in the Dominion. Mr Millar’s confidence in the result is shown by the fact that when he finished his tour of the electorate last Friday night, he discontinued his public addresses. All the other candidates for all the city seats are blazing away till the night before the poll.

DUNEDIN CENTRAL. In Dunedin Central Mr J. F. Arnold the former representative and a supporter of the Ward administration, is opposed by Mr C. E. Statham (Oppositionist), a young barrister, a son-in-law of the Mayor (Mr Burnett), and Mr D. McPherson (Labour). My placing is Arnold 1, Statham 2, McPherson 3. Whether the Labor vote will be sufficient to necessitate a second poll seems to be a moot question. DUNEDIN SOUTH. Dunedin South is certain to again return Mr T. K. Sidey, but the sponsor of the Daylight Bill will not have that walkover which seemed likely when it was known that no one but Mr McManus could be induced to enter the lists. Labour is solid in the South in opposition to the late member. This opponent will moreover get considerable support from those averse to the Government. CHALMERS. Chalmers, which now extends from Port Chalmers on the north beyone Mosgiel on the South, has four suitors —the late member (Mr J. T. Johnson), who gave the Minister of Agriculture a hard run for Taieri three years ago, Mr Dickson, the reform candidate, and Mr A. McCarthy (Socialist). It is sufficient at this juncture to express the opinion that a second ballot between Mr Clark and Mr Johnson will be provided. BRUCE. Bruce is fumxsmng a hard fought battle, the contestants being Air James Alien and Mr McKinley (Government). The first lieutenant of the leader of the Opposition will retain the seat. OTAGO CENTRAL. Otago Central has three suitors, viz., Mr R. Scott, the late member, Mr Alasoii and Mr Bennetts. on e of the two Government supporters is likely to be called on to contest the final ballot with the late member, who is a staunch Oppositionist. In that eyent a Government gain is highly probable. Three years ago the principal bearer of the Government standard (Air AlcPherson), headed the poll when there were three starters, but when the field was reduced to a match he was beaten. CLUTHA. Clutha will return Air Alalcolm for another term. His position is the more secure in that his opponent (Air George Livingstone) is a resident of North Otago, and not of the electorate. OAAIARU. Oamaru will probably provide a second ballot between the Hon T. Y. Duncan and Air Lee. In any event I expect the Opposition to wrest this seat from the Government. WAKATIPU.

Should the reverse be counterbalanced it will be in Waka■tipu, where the older member of the Opposition in the late Parliament (Mr Fraser) is being opposed by Mr Horn. If the Government do capture this seat it will be a quarter of a century since a Liberal represented the Cold Lake area. SOUTHLAND. The prospects of the four Southland members being returned are very good. It is now estimated that Sir J. G. Ward will have a majority of from 800 to 1,000 over his two Awarua opponents. Mr J. C. Thomson will beat his two opponents hollow for the Wallace seat. For Invercargill Mr Hanan will be returned probably with out the necessity for a second ballot. It is however, rumoured that in the event of a second ballot being needed the Opposition and Labour forces will join with the object of defeating the late member. MATAURA. Mr Mac Gibbon will run Mr Anderson very close for Mataura, but I fancy that the late member will retain his SUMMING UPSumming up the Otago Southland area I predict that the Opposition will capture Oamaru, and that the Government will wrest Wakatipu and possibly Otago Central. Despite talk throughout the Dominion of the need for a change in the administration J

fancy that Otago and. South land will show no diminution in the total vote cast for the Ward Government. UP NORTH. colvin and McKenzie safe. CLOSE CALL IN DULLER. [BY TELEGRAPH—SPECIAL TO THE STAR.] WESTPORT, This Day. Politics are very keen here. Mr Colvin should win Duller with a good majority. The liquor poll will be close but it is doubtful if'tlre three-fifths majority can be reached. Hon Roderick McKenzie is favorite for Motueka. Continuance is likely to win in that district. MR LUKE’S POSITION. WELLINGTON, This Day. Mr J. P. Luke was asked last night how he would vote on a no-confidence motion and according to the reports published this morning he said that about a fortnight ago the Premier had sent for him and asked him to stand aside for another candidate. He had absolutely refused and considered the proposal an insult to him after the services lie had rendered the country and the city. He would vote to remove the present Government from office and fill their place from the men elected to represent the Liberal ‘party in Parliament, but he wanted it clearly understood that he would not vote to put Sir Joseph Ward out for the purpose of putting Mr Massey in.

AUCKLAND CONSTITUENCIES. THE PARNELL CONTEST. Despite the doubts expressed to the contrary by his opponents, Sir John Findlay may be regarded as the coming member for Parnell, but it is most likely that a second ballot will be required. Mr Dickson, who is standing as an Independent Liberal, has the official Opposition backing, but it is stated that many sympathisers with the Opposition Party will (owing to the absence of a straight-out Opposition candidate) cast their votes for Sir John. Mr M. J. Mack, the Labour candidate, will draw good support from the Temperance section, but in the event of a second ballot which is likely—between the two other candidates, the greater part of this vote, will be received by the present AttorneyGeneral. _ OHINEMURI. There are four candidates for Ohmemuri, but Mr Poland (who sat in last Parliament as a Government member) is regarded as safe.