THE TRIAL OF STRENGTH.

Greymouth Evening Star, 6 December 1911, Page 2

THE TRIAL OF STRENGTH.

TO-MORROWS GENERAL ELECTIONS.

POLITICAL AND LICENSING PROSPECTS REVIEWED.

INTERESTING TELEGRAMS FROM OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENTS

FIRST ELECTED MEMBER. SIR JAMES" CARRQLL. SIGNIFICANCE OF HIS RETURN. IBY TELEGRAPH —SPECIAL AO THE STAR.] "'I WELLINGTON, December 5. The first elected. member of the new Parliament, Sir James Carroll, passed through Wellington last on Monday from Gisborne en route for Ashburton. He was'invited to give an address in Wellington before the election but this will not be possible because he has a ‘prior engagement for Rakaia on Wednesday. A BRIGHT OUTLOOK. “The prospects?” replied Sir James when your correspondent asked if he cared to summarise the position as it appears to him on the eve of the battle. “I think there will not be much change. The relative strength of the parties will be practically unaltered We will win in several places I am sure. Our position looks well in the northern seats. All our people arc confident.' My own election gives the country an indication of what is thought of the Government’s native land policy in a district most concerned in the question. Every effort was made to get an opponent to’ come out against me, but it was not encouraging and here I am elected unopposed. I regard my return as an indication of my policy and ; Mr Ngata’s return, also unopposed, shows that we have the confidence of the Maori people. We have the ground work laid down in the Maori Land Act of 1909. That is a good basis and we will develop it next session in the way of providing additional facilities for obtaining cheap money. As the Government, has already indicated, the activities now in force will bring the end of the native land question much nearer to us. The monnholy of land is not. however, purely a native question. It is becoming more a European question.” TRADING ON MOKAU.

POSITION IN CANTERBURY.

' 'SOME KEEN CONTESTS

OPPOSITION MAY LOSEvGRO'CND.

[BY TELEGRAPH—SPECIAL TO THE STAR.] CHRISTHURCH, This Hay.

A last look round tlie electorates reveals no new movement that wouldnecessitate any material alteration of previous suggestions as to the probable outcome of the elections. Canterbury can be trusted. to remain true to its old Liberalism, and if there are any changes they are hardly likely to be in the direction desired by Mr Massey. CHRISTCHURCH CITY. Of the city electorates, Christchurch North attracts most notice. Mr L. M. Isitt’s cause has been helped rather than hindered by the bitter attacks on him of the ’Conservative press not only here but all over the Dominion. On the platform he completely eclipses the Opposition candidate, Mr J. D. Hall, who can have no chance of reversing the result of the bye-election. Indeed Mr Hall ? s friends seem to be losing heat. Air Petherick, who calls himself a Government supporter and is a strong anti-Prohibitionist, will not be a factor in the contest. DR. THACKER AGAIN.

Mr T. H. Davey’s prospects in Christchurch East continue bright. Dr. Thacker’s eleventh hour decision to support the claims of denominational schools for grants is considered by some people to be likely to influence an important section of the late member’s following, but Mr Davey’s friends are not likely to forsake one who has served them staunchly and well. The Labor candidate, Mr Hunter, professes confidence but the plain truth is that his hat will fit him much more comfortably after the poll than it does now. Mr Cooke, Socialist, should dispute the bottom position with him. If therois a second ballot it will be between Mr Davey and Dr. Thacker, but no one will be surprised if the former wins straight-out. OPPOSED BY A LABORITE. Mr H. G. EU has been doing’ good platform work in Christchurch South and.should hold his Labour opponent, Mr G. R. Whiting, without difficulty. The latter is the strongest of the Labour candidates in some respects and his paxdy has given a great deal of time to organisation but Mr Ell should retain the seat. The Socialist candidate, Mr E. Howard,can hardly poll enough to make a second ballot necessary. , LIBERAL OR INDEPENDENT ? Avon is difficult to forecast. Mr J. McCombs, an Independent Liberal, who put up a good fight in Christchurch East three years ago, has been gaining ground rapidly. As a supporter of the bare majority he has a. strong following and he will give Mr G. W. Russell a very hot run for the seat. Mr W. R. Smith (Labour), is not a strong man and the Opposition candidate (Mr J. 0. Jameson) is taken seriously by very few people. AN EASY THING. i In Lyttelton Mr G. Laurenson should secure re-election. His solitary opponent, Mr C. Cook, is standing as an Independent Liberal but the Conservative newspapers have recently taken him under their wing and there should beno doubt now >as to the result. A MAN OF PROMISE. Probably the strongest of the three men who are trying to wrest Riccarton from Mr Witty is the official Labour candidate, Mr D, G. Sullivan. He is quite the most promising of the Labour men hereabouts and is a fluent attractive speaker. He beat Mr E. H. Ensor, an Independent Oppositionist, who has some original ideas and in time may make a politician. Mr T. L. Drummond, Independent Labour, is a negligible quantity. Mr Witty’s friends are quietly confiident of a win on the first ballot and I am inclined to agree with them. WOOL KINGS AT A DISCOUNT. Humnui is to see a duel between Mr G. W. Forbes, who carried the Liberal banner to victory three years, ago and Mr. D. D. McFarlane, an Amuri wool king. Mr Forbes has been strengthening his position during the campaign and as wool kings are at a discount in politics nowadays Mr McFarlane looks like being badly beaten. A MINISTER IN EXTREMIS. Kaiapoi remains very open. The Hon. D. Buddo’s supporters have hardened up a lot during the last fortnight while Mr R. Moore, the Opposition candidate, seems to be losing ground. It is a, question whether Mr Moore or the Independent Liberal, Mr Blackwell, will be the Minister’s opponent in the second ballot, but in any case Mr Buddo may retain the Seat ' A SAFE OPPOSITION. Mr R. H. Rhodes (Opposition) has been considered safe in Ellesmere, but the Government candidate, Mr G. Armstrong, will at least give him a run. Mr Armstrong has a good municipal record on Banks Peninsula and as his platform work has been improving his friends are much more hopeful than they were a few weeks ago. WHICH COASTER?

Sir James Can-oil suggested that the letter from the Opposition, who were included in the Mokau Company with Mr McNab, must convince anyone that Mr Massey was not in the right. Every opportunity was given to Mr Massey last session to formulate and prove his charges against the, Government, He failed to formulate any and fell back upon exaggeration and inuendoThat too has failed him. I knew all along that he was only using the Inquiry to gather material entirely irrelevant to the main points. The Mokau case was simply for the purpose of trading upon during the election. That was quite evident to everyone and nobody checked it. A HIGH TONE. . ■ „ “I am very glad to note / all round that our candidates - are meeting people fairly and concluded • Sir James, “they are submitting their views of liberalism and progressiveness, principles they consider proper and right in the public interests without any tendency to a descent- ! to the lower atmosphere of abuse cultivated by the other side. lam glad of this because it leaves it open to fairly and squarely place the merits of our cause before them and the country.” PROSPECTS OF LIBERALISM. A NORTH ISLAND SUMMARY. r BV TELEGRAPH- —SPECIAL TO THE STAB.] WELLINGTON, This Day. Looking at the political position throughout the North Island, the prospects of Liberalism appear to be much better than at the 1908 election. The country was at that time under the influence of a slight depression and the tactical error of the proposal dairy regulations undoubtedly did the Government serious injury in the Taranaki district. LIBERALS BETTER IN TARANAKI I anticipate that Taranaki will show a desire to renew its allegiance to the Liberal policy, though I am not sanguine enough to prophesy more than the winning of one . seat namely Egmont, which should return the Hon T. Mackenzie by a fair majority. The Liberal candidate for New Plymouth, Mr Bellringer, is going to make an excellent showing, the party having greatly improved in its organisation. The Opposition will most likely pick up the new North Island seat, Raglan, and they have a fair chance of scoring in Otaki, though tho more likely candidate of the two Oppositionists would be more progressve than the average of that party. Waitemata is a certainty for the Government and will constitute a Liberal win. I believe that either Oroua or its neighbour Rankitikei will declare for the Government, which has an excellent candidate in Mr Meldrum in the former constituency. CONTEST IN WELLINGTON. Wellington Central looks well for Mr Fletcher and a Government win against Mr Fisher is highly probable. Wellington suburbs may pass into Opposition hands on a second ballot as the former member, Mr Luke, enjoyed the support of a number of Conservatives who now have an opportunity of voting for a straight out Oppositionist, Mr Bell (Junr.) The Wanganui Contest is a very open affair. Mr Hogan appears to have lost his.one time ’Labour support and it may be found that in the end Mr W. A. Yeitch, who has the Labour ticket, will get the position. Mr McNab should win the Palmerston North seat by,/a fair majority. He has the active sSpport-. of the former lateral member, Mr 'Wood, who was beaten last election by 1 lc*ss i J than a hundred votes and' it is admitted that tlio organisation has been greatly improved since that defeat. . ’ GOVERNMENT LIKELY TO ;GAIN. Though there will be slight changes of personnel, the position will probably be unaltered in Hawkes Bay province. The Government is therefore in my opinion likely to win live seats in the North Island. Against this has to be placed the probable losses to Opposition and Labour, two in number, Raglan being a new seat. If my judgment is accurate the result is a slight but nevertheless definite improvement in the fortunes of the Literal party.

Sir Jas. Carroll’s visit to Selwyn may turn the balance in favour of the Liberal candidate. Air W. J. Dickie. Air C. A. C. Hardy is popular, but a weak man put up a great fight against him last election, and there is clearly a strong body of Liberal opinion in the electorate.

ASHBURTON FOR OPPOSITION. Mr W. Nosworthy lias a fair prospect of retaining Ashburton for the Oppositon. The veteran -(Mr .’McLachlan is outiof the running but both Mr Kennedy and Mr Maslin ; have been improving their positions and if they combine forces at the second ballot*: which seems certain, the refmlt will be hard to forecast. SOUTH CANTERBURY SEATS. Mr T. Buxton should' have no trouble in beating the two Opposition candidates, Messr Armitage and Jeffries for Temuka,, though the first ballot may not decide the contest. Timaru is likely to remain true to its Liberal traditions and return Mr J. Craigie, the most formidable of whose opponents is the Oppositionist Mr J. H. Moore. Waitaki has stretched so far South now that it seems almost to belong to Otago. The Opposition are confident that Mr F. Smith will win, but the Government nominee Mr MacPherson is an experienced campaigner and may make a good late run. A SUMMARY. If the Opposition gain anything in Canterbury it will be Waitaki but their three representatives in the last Parliament will all have to poll heavily to win.