NEED OF OIL

Evening Star, Issue 23560, 26 April 1940, Page 8

NEED OF OIL

WEAK POINT IN REICH'S DEFENCE Germany is blockade-proof for at least two years of the present type of war, but in the third or fourth year the British, and French Empires will be able to crush the Reich hy superior military power, Dr Karl Brandt, professor at Stanford University l and formerly professor of agricultural economics at the University of Berlin, declares in the March issue of ‘ Foreign Affairs.’ Even with limited Russian assistance, Germany can hold out for two years anyway, provided it does not abandon its “ sit-down ” tactics in favour of a Blitzkrieg, and provided the Allies do not force it to adopt a more wasteful war strategy, Dr Brandt holds. ■ Turning to the critical items in Germany’s economy, he indicates that the Reich’s food deficit is not so serious now as it was in" 1914. He declares that German farmers to-day are producing more grain and grass, more sugar beet and potatoes, more milk and pork than ever before. Under peacetime conditions about 87 per cent, of all food consumed in Germany is grown there, as against 75 per cent, in 1914. STRONG IN FINANCE, As for finance, to expect Germany to go bankrupt soon is “ complacent self-deception,” he notes. Although the Reich’s public debt will total at least .80,000,000,000 marks by next autumn, the Nazis have already introduced a vast levy on wages in the form of “ saving scrip,” and they Can reduce interest rates_ on bonds of even repudiate them outright, No internal financial dilemma,' according to him, will wreck the Nazi machine. “ The weak points,” to quote him, “ in Germany’s economic and financial situation are her import requirements and the; means at hen disposal to pay for them.” On this score his view agrees with the general report that the, most critical shortage lies in, petroleum and lubricants. . As for cotton, wool, and rub-, her, “Ersatz” substitutes will make, overseas imports unnecessary; and-' as ; for ores and .metals, they can be s had, from' European neighbours, except cop--per, which can be replaced largely by aluminium. i . ± , But oil. Dr Brandt finds, is the Reich’s Achilles heel. “In the last year before the war,” he comments, ‘ ‘ the Reich consumed 8,000,000 - 'tons-, of oil* products. To-day, since Germany can produce only 3,500,0Q0 tons of oil products and substitutes, some 4,500,000 tons must be imported, if the peace-time level of consumption is maintained; and from 12,000,000 to 20,000,000 tons must be imported if active operations, like those of 1917-18, take place on the western fronts -

TRANSPORTATION SAG

Russia, he maintains, will 'be of little help, owing to transportation difficulties. The German railway system is already overburdened and may be the first place where the strain ol war produces a break. After’ weighing all the factors, then, he concludes that while Germany might, by dmt of supreme buying efforts, be able to obtain normal peace-time requirements of 8.000. tons ol oil products, it oovlld not, under any circumstances, secure an additional 13,000,000 tons. By his calculations there exists the theoretical possibility that Germany can keep .jits war machine going by drawing vital raw materials from near-by countries. It can sell ships and art treasures, and it can utilise its capital investments abroad, which are put at hear 6,000,000,000 marks. It can utilise also its hoard .of gold and foreign exchange, valued by Dr Brandt at 600,000,000 to 700.000. marks. Further than that it can deliver the desperate threat, “ Deliver, or else,” to the 'Balkansi “ A great deal depends,” Dr Brandt concludes, “ on the nature of the war in the next few months. If Germany decides to Outlast the Allies in a sit-

down war of nerves the final economic collapse can be postponed, but the war will eventually be lost. In the third or fourth/ year the British and French Empires will he able to crush the Nazis by' superior military power.”-