BIRTHRATE-EFFECT ON POLITICS

Evening Star, Issue 22032, 18 May 1935, Page 19

BIRTHRATE-EFFECT ON POLITICS

KEEP THE CRADLE ROCKING DEMANDS *F DICTATORS The old saying that “ the hand that rocks the cradle rules .the world ” has taken on a political significance these days. . Statesmen in many parts of th® civilised world, anxious for their country’s place in the ,sun, have been loudly, crying for more and busier cradles. It is indeed , a vital fact in the international situation that the modern tendency toward decline in the rate at which, population increases has become a. major factor of national apprehension. Conversely, when by any means the birth rate is made to rise, the added man power is reflected in a feeling of greater political security in certain national consciousnesses.

Such an attitude is a strange reversal of the ory of half a century age when the world was still under the influence of the Malthusian theory of approaching over-population. No loniget is-there a fear that population will outrun the means of subsistence. The starving masses predicted’by the Malthusites have not come upon us—not at any,: rate. in the 'expected way. Where there is lack of sustenance today it is not because there are too many mouths to feed. Production' still outruns population. Indeed, it has forged further ahead than ever before. It is the distribution system of the world that has lagged. Yet in point of mere statistics it has been estimated that if the present rat® of increase continues, the world willhave no less than 6,000,000,000 peopl® .to feed, clothe, and house by the year 2,100 —less than 170 years in the .future. That number is regarded as about as many as the old earth can comfortably cater for unless its soil is taught to yield mote bountiful crops than it does at present. / To-day, however, the total world population is' only about 1,900,000,000. But, even if the limit of. expansion should actually be put at a later dat® than a.d. 2XOO, it is nevertheless indisputable .that while populations still tepd to increase, the world persists in remaining much the same size. The birth rate to-day varies astonishingly in different countries. In European Russia it was as high as 42.7 t per 1,000 in 1928. In Sweden in the .same year it was'l6.l; in the United Kingdom 17.2. There are no later figures for Russia, but in the other two countries there has been a further decline, and their ■ figures for 1931 were the lowest in Europe! By reason of a low mortality rate, however, their net natural -increase was above. that of France, Estonia, and Austria. .Poland with a net increase of over 470,00 -m a population of 32,000,000 was catching up to Germany in 1931 at the rate of .170,000 a year, although the total population of Germany waa twice as large as that of Poland. Russia increased her population by over 16,000,000 in the years between 1926 and 1932. But this represents a slowing down as compared with’ previous periods of equal length! The net increase in the United States fell from 10.7 per 1,000 in the period 1921-25 to 6.6 in 1932. ■ The fall in the birth rate in Franc® so dismayed the French Government that a proposal was brought forward a few years ago to grant plural votes to fathers of large families and to change the wage system, so as to put a premium on the largest number of. children. Whether as a result of benefits received or owing to a change in popular sentiment, or both, the Frencty birth rat® has now gone moderately up and from being the lowest in Europe is now higher than in England, , Austria. Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, and Germany. , , France’s concern in the birth rate ia nothing new. Napoleon himself was an advocate of . a larger population. In 1805 be prepared a decree that every seventh child should be reared at th® expense of the State. The decree, however, failed to pass the Legislative Assembly, _ In Germany, between I£KX) and 1931, the birth rate sank .from 36 per 1,000 to 16 per 1,000. The Poles, although ! only half as numerous as the Germans, are increasing to-day at more than twice the rate. If, therefore, .numbers are. regarded as a chief criterion of a Nation’s strength and importance, it ia little to be wondered at that Hitler, like Mussolini, should subsidise marriages at 1,000 marks apiece. Th® modern German wife is prohibited from apeepting paid employment. Sbc ia encouraged to regard her right sphere as the home and her Job as rearing » family for the greater glory and power of the German Reich. 1 show a considerable preponderance of women over men. In 1924 the birth rate was 29 per thousand.. To-day, in’ spite of years of energetic Fascist propaganda, it is 23.8 per thousand. And the number of marriages has also declined appreciably. With Italy’s, plaon in the sun dependent, in the view of her rulers, on the maintenance of the birth rate, these figures are viewed in Rome with grave misgiving. In England, on the other hand, where the birth rate in 1932 was 15.8 per, 1,000 and the mortality rate 12.3, the. authorities profess no undue anxiety, although' an actual decrease in population is expected within a few years if the birth rate continues to decline. ; The largest population in the world is that of China, with about 450,000,000 inhabitants. Reliable statistics ara lacking, but some authorities, including the Maritime Customs, put the total a good deal higher. Next to Chin* comes India with, about 360,000,000. Of ■ the continents, Asia, with 1,105,-* 000,000 inhabitants,- has the largest population, and Europe, with 475.000:000. is most densely populated. North America has 135,000,000. Africa, where statistics exist only for a small area, is estimated to have 143,000,000.Some students of vital statistics «e® grave future danger to the white race* from the enormous numerical preponderance of the. Asiatic yellows and browns. ■Even when taken, statistics in th® past frequently fell very far short of • comprehensive survey. Thus, th® famous English Doomesday Book indicates a population of 283,242 in-, habitants. But closer investigation discloses that this figure omits, women, children, ecclesiastics, and probably th® entire population of four counties. But before we blame our forefathers, let it be remembered that deductions from available last-minute statistics point • to the fact that even to-day only about two-thirds of the world’s population i* reliably accounted for. Experience alone can show whether populations can be coaxed and cajoled into growth by the voices of dictators; or conversely, whether t^ie* tendency of, ■ populations to' increase is going to b® checked by artificial and deliberate methods of control.