NOTES ON THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume CXXXVII, Issue 95, 22 April 1944, Page 6

NOTES ON THE WAR

COMING EVENTS

SHADOWS CAST BEFORE

What is going on just now in both main theatres of war, . Europe and Pacific, is rather a foretaste of more important events to come than anything decisive in itself. These are the preliminary bouts, or rather moves for position in the next six months of critical conflict. . '

• In Europe there is a tense air of expectancy as the Allied -air forces pound targets west, south, and east, and .on the fringes of the central core, with loads of bombs of ever-increasing weight. The climax must come soon. Meanwhile, it is obvious .that the forces of the Allies —British, American, and Russian—are massing on the various fronts preparatory to a simultaneous, or at least synchronised, onslaught from1 all sides. The Germans are endeavouring at suitable points to upset the preparations by attacking first in as great a strength as they can muster. These tactics are most conspicuous for the moment on the Russian front, up on the Narva-Pskov-Vitebsk line covering the approaches from the east to the Baltic through Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and in southern Poland, north of the Carpathians, covering the direct road to the heart of Germany and the Danube Basin. It is in the latter' region that the greatest danger to the Allied plan lies, for a substantial German success here would imperil the Russian armies in Bessarabia and Rumania. ■ Massing- for Attack. ' The Russian front may, however, from past experience, be safely left to the Russians. There may be delays, but there, is little likelihood now, with the Germans facing all ways, of a decided setback. What may be expected in the south—the so-called "soft underbelly of Europe," which seems to have grown a bony sort of shield—is an attempt by the Anglo-American armies in Italy to break the long deadlock in the Apennines on-the winter line and the "iron ring" round the Anzio beachhead. There are all the signs of accumulating Allied pressure all along these fronts, while the Germans must be suffering from the interference with their supplies Caused by heavy Allied air bombardment. The coming of spring and the approach of summer should make all the difference in Italy. The unusually severe winter in the Apennines probably turned the scale against. Allied success in the. last six months. All accounts seem to agree on this. Success in Italy should be followed by closer co-operation with Tito's forces and the Balkan guerrillas generally and, possibly, a navalair clearance of the Aegean archipelago. Operations from Corsica are also on the cards against northern Italy and the French Mediterranean coast. What the Allies will do in the west must be left to the speculative imagination of countless millions. Drawbacks in Burma. • ■ The war against Japan, not only in the Pacific but also on the mainland of South-east Asia, the AmerU cans regard much more as their special war than they dp the European conflict. That is why they have expressed more concern than the British about What has happened and is happening on the Burma front. Here many American commentators have taken very seriously indeed the Japanese move in the Imphal region, some looking on it as a possible threat to India itself, a first step to invasion. This seems well beyond the mark. The objective of this operation of the enemy is probably far more limited. The most reasonable explanation is that it is part of a Japanese offensivedefensive to secure the land frontiers of theiy continental Asiatic empire against attack from the west. General Stil well's mixed forceAmerican and Chinese—based on Sadiya in Upper Assam, had made considerable progress in Upper Burma across «the headwaters of the Chindwin and Irrawaddy with a view of ultimately linking up with the Chinese end of the Burma Road and opening up, by an extension of the Ledo Road, an overland route to China, to supplement air transport. The Sadiya base is supplied by the Bengal-Assam railway, and if the Japs could cut this, they would force the retirement of Stilwell's and Lentaigne's forces in Upper Burma back to Assam. The Japanese themselves by holding the Imphal plain, or plateau, could ensure the health of their forces during the wet monsoon season by withdrawing them to the comparatively healthy plateau from the malarious valleys and jungles of Upper Burma. Even if they failed to cut the Assam railway at Dimapur, their action has so delayed the Allied advance on the Burma front already that a withdrawal of the northern Allied armies may be necessary to avoid a wet season in the Hukawng and Mogaung Valleys. There are only a few weeks to go now before the monsoon breaks. Threat to China. To this must be added now a serious threat to the Chinese in the heart of Free China. A large Japanese army has opened a drive seemingly directed against the Free China province pf Szechuan, north of the Upper Yangtze. The effort may, of course, fail, as Japanese drives have failed in other directions in the past, but Chiang Kaishek's armies and Free China Mtself have been reduced to a low ebb, according to some accounts, by privations and hardships, and they are still far less effectively armed than the Japanese. So far land campaigns against the Japanese have been slow at. the best, and sometimes unsuccessful. The time has probably now come to try whether the sea and air way is not quicker and more effective.