NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

Evening Post, Volume CXXXIII, Issue 46, 24 February 1942, Page 4

NOTES ON THE WAR NEWS

JAPAN & RUSSIA

CLASH IN FAR EAST?

No announcement of special victories was made during the celebrations of the Soviet Red Army's 24th anniversary in Eussia yesterday, but the Red Army, is moving forward with renewed vigour and enthusiasm on all fronts today as a suitable mark of the beginning of its 25th year. Stalin's Order of the Day was characteristic in its sober statement of fact without rhetoric, 1 "The Soviet people do not delude I themselves that the enemy is already beaten. On the contrary, a stern struggle is still ahead." This is the plain truth of the position and Stalin gave a simple, classic definition of the essentials of victory; the deciding factors: Solidity of the rear, morale and the spirit of the army, the quantity and quality of the divisions, armament, and the ability of the High Command. The definition applies not to Russia only, but to war everywhere and at all times. The absence of one or more of these factors mentioned by Stalin may lead to defeat instead of victory,! as experience has shown not once but often in the present war. But Stalin's sober confidence in the issue in the West seems, by all the evidence, to be well justified. There is, however, the possibility of a new factor entering into the problem. This is a clash between Japan and Russia in the Far East. The reports of "extraordinary military activity" in Manchuria come to us from Chungking via New York, and there is just a chance that they i include an element of wishful thinking on the part of the Chinese authorities in Chungking. , On the other hand, the arguments in favour of Japanese action against Russia in the Manchuria-Vladivostok region are not unreasonable. Vladivostok is the nearest point in the possession of the Allies to Japan itself, so near indeed that flights could easily be made from the vicinity of Vladivostok over the whole of Japan's populous industrial cities from Tokio to Kobe. The population of these cities, numbering many millions,' is mainly housed m flimsy dwellings of wood and paper and their vulnerability to air attack from Vladivostok constitutes Japan's "Achilles heel." It is no exaggeration for the "New York Times" Chungking correspondent to say that the Japanese "realise that their entire previous success in the war would be jeopardised in the case of .a surprise attack from the Siberian bases." This has always been the sword *that hangs over the Japanese feast of military success, and there have been a number of clashes in the past few years between Japan and Russia in this area. Japan's Predicament. The predicament of Japan is not unlike that of Hitler last year, when, after conquering the greater part of Europe. ', he decided to secure his gains by a ; surprise attack on Russia, the pow.er- \ ful military neighbour to the east who might well at a later stage dispute ' them. The Japanese know that, apart from any other consideration, they cannot be safe so long as Russia is strong and strongly entrenched across the narrow waters of the Sea of Japan. If Hitler had thoroughly beaten Russia there would be little need to worry and Japan might then, with impunity, have concentrated on the drive to the south in which she is now involved. The Soviet successes in the west only furnish additional reasons for early Japanese action in the' Far East. First, the main strength of Russia is fully occupied and will be a long time yet be occupied in the west. In the second place, a Russian victory in the west would be followed almost certainly by a move to be rid of the Japanese menace to Siberia from Manchuria and Inner Mongolia. Therefore, from the view of grand strategy j the time for the Japanese to strike | cannot be long delayed without greater ! danger. There is also the valid point j made by the Chungking correspondent | that just now the East Siberian rivers, \ notably the Amur, are frozen over and j can be crossed on foot, while the Rus- j sian Far East fleet is ice-bound in \ Vladivostok. These favourable condi- j 1 tions will be gone' in! a month or so. j i Previous Clashes. ; It is uncertain precisely how the j Russians are situated in Far Eastern ; Siberia to meet a large-scale attack, j but the correspondent alleges that the < Soviet Far Eastern army has been I maintained fairly intact, or at least kept up to strength. It has always been an independent army fully I equipped with bases and aircraft and arms of all kinds. In previous clashes,! in 1938 at Changkufeng, south-west of j Vladivostok, and in 1939 at Nomonhan, in Outer Mongolia, the Russians had very much the better of the exchanges, j and scored substantial victories in this undeclared warfare. There is also the point, mentioned in yesterday's notes, that at Vladivostok and elsewhere in Eastern Siberia the Russians could de- j pend on material assistance from America and China, who for the first time would get a chance of striking a direct blow at Japan itself. These considerations may stay Japan's hand in this .area, at least until a decision is reached in the south-west Pacific, but (he arguments in favour of eaiiier I action will no doubt tempt the Tokio i militarists, flushed with success in the !south. Other Theatres of War. I There is little further news of fightj ing in detail in the East Indies theatre. j The Allies claim a major air and naval I victory off Bali, but the enemy has secured a landing there and is trying !to operate one aerodrome. Air warifare rages over Java and the southern | end of Sumatra. The Allies seem to be holding their own. The news from Burm,a is of Allied retirement between the Bilin and Sittang Rivers and the menace to Rangoon grows. In Libya there are signs that Rommel is waiting for reinforcements. Pressure on Vichy to hand over the French fleet is hardI ening. If Vichy yields, the naval posi- | tion of the Allies in the Mediterranean will be changed for the worse; and Rommel may get the reinforcements , he wants for another attack on Egypt. This is the most difficult prospect be- ; fore the Allies just now. i