YOUTH FAVOURED

Evening Post, Volume CXXII, Issue 16, 18 July 1936, Page 22

YOUTH FAVOURED

NATIONAL FIGURES

AGES OF PAST WINNERS

Although the record of the Gr,and National Steeplechase reveals that its winners : have averaged a > higher age than the winners of the Great North- ' crn Steeplechase and tr^e Wellington Steeplechase; it is interesting to note that, except for Snowfall five years ago, the winners of the past decade have •: been under double: figures in. point of years. ,: Fronv these figures it would • seem as if the Grand National Steeplechase>has also now become a race for the younger horses,' as; almost all '■■' jumping events in;the world -are today. :"" ■ '.;■' '■; ■'..■- ■.-.': ' . ■;'•

Because of the .time of the season at which the Grand National is run, ■■■ after August 1 in the winter session, ' one would expect the average age of the winners to be a year higher than' . for the Great Northern or Wellington Steeplechases; but, even if Snowfall be included in the Grand National count,- this has not been the fact in re- • cent years. In the last decade the - mean age of the Riccarton winners has --. been .eight years, which would be re- ,. duced to 7.45 years if Snowfall be regarded as a unique exception to the present-day rule. In the same period the mean age. of the Ellerslie winners has been-7^. years and for the: Trent ham: winners 7.4 years. From these '■.-■ figures the chances . of. the younger ";.■ horses, in the; Grand National would •• appear, even .better now than in either ■ - of the other two big 'steeplechases of _■.'- the winter session. ' .

I THE OLDER NATIONALS. , Howe^Ar, when one works back in the Graria National list to'years earlier than a.decade ago one will find that the older horses had a decidedly better .record of performance. Double-figure ages, were then quite common, about halving the tally with the younger horses. ■•'. On the other hand, this was. never so with -the Great Northern or Wellington Steeplechases, whose great

majority of winners have always been under ten ■ years, eyeii; back- in the eighties ,and nineties. ■i-.v&y-'ty -■!. ,! ■■-;■ ■ The reason.'lor the: success' of folder horses; in the Grand- National up till a decade ago is probably two-fold. FirStf ly, * the -majority of the cross-country, perfarmers'in. earlier times did not race till they were ,six years and often much older, though .they had plenty of earlier' experience in,the hunting field and at local sports meetings. Secondly, races like the Grand National were once run much differently from what they have been in late years; with the pace easy travelling till well into the final circuit,, and that, of course, did not bring about the same drain on energy resources as now, which helped the older horses at the expense of the younger. Assuming that horses are equal in other respects, a horse, of seven or, eight years will survive a really gruel-, ling race over a long distance better than a horse with an accumulation' of years. . It is not.now easy, to ascertain the ages of horses who raced in the earlier period of these events, for a large majority were not Stud Book-horses and many of them were designated aged (that is, over six years) when their names first appeared in race records. However, an inspection of the registration books filed with the New Zealand Kacing Conference has enabled every age back to-1890 to.be fixed, excepting only that of1 the 1915 Grand National winner. Ngatqa, who was registered simply as aged two seasons previously and ,- was therefore snine years or over when he scored. . . PARITUTU AND SNOWFALL. Since 1890 the oldest horses to have won the Grand National have been Paritutu(l9ll) and Snowfall (1931), who were both thirteen years. In the same period the oldest winners of the Great Northern Steeples have been Dick (1926) and Billy Boy (1938), who were each eleven' years old; and the oldest victor in the Wellington Steeplechase has been Haydn (1907), who was twelve years old—unless the 1911 winner Captain Jack, whose age was never registered, was (as old as or older than that. . -..'■■, ' . - Two Grand National winners sincp 1890 in Ahua, '(1892) and Sturdee (1924) have been twelve years old at the time; four others, Mutiny (1896), Eclair (1907), St. Elmm (1918), and Coalition (1921), have . been' eleven years; and seven others,, Mutiny (1895), Phaetontis (1906), Eurus (1908) ; , Nadador (1909), Coalition (1920), Qakleigh (1923), and Tuki (1925) have, been ten years. : This count gives fifteen Grand National winners since 1890 as ten years of more, and jt is a ratio of ]ust less than one-third of the 46 races in the period. ;. The best years for the older horses have been from 1906 to 1909, all; four winners in those years having double-figure ages, and from 1920 to 1925, when five of the six winners were ten years old or more. The days of Coalition, Oakleigh, and Sturdee, immediately preceded by ' Waimai, Master Strowan, >St. Elmm, and Lochella, were the times of the 'chasing "giants," though it is a question that might be keenly debated whether they would quite measure up to the speedy fencers of recent years, even though in the net result their times compared very favourably with the times in recent years. Oakleigh's 6min 55 l-ssec for the race has been bettered since only by' Peter Maxwell In recording 6min 53 3-ssec in 1926: and Snowfall's 6min 58 l-ssec is the best time subsequent to Peter Maxwell. Thirty years ago the time was usually about 7£ minutes,' and it is only since Oakleigh's year that times have been regularly round about ? minutes under average track conditions. The track was like summer going when Snowfall won, just as_ it was at Ellerslie last month when Billy

Racing by "Raniatlra." Trotting by "Rlbbonwood.'

Boy put up best figures for the Great Northern Steeples. THIS YEAR'S AGES. With these figures now in mind one may approach this year's Grand National nomination list in analytical frame and so ascertain what horses have most in their favour from the age point of view. It is noted that the oldest horse in this year's field is Umtali, 13 years, who will be emulating the feats of Paritutu arid ' Snowfall. Umtali ran at Trentham like 'a back number' and few will now care to enthuse over his prospects. . . ' ': . • ,

Among the twelve-year-olds.- are Billy Boy, Punchestown, Kaokaoroa, and Royal Songster. The " first pair are the only two whose chances are likely to be Seriously fancied. On theoretical considerations their main hope seems 4o lie in a firm track. If such conditions prevail they might manage to. retain a sufficient reserve of energy, for the final struggle, but otherwise one would expect them to have, their resources , drained before the close in their effort Ho keep up with the field on the assumed heavy track. That was what probably happened to' Billy Boy in the Wellington Steeplechase. '.<■ .. ■ , . ■- •'. There Will be only two eleven-year-olds 'at most in the field, Thurina and Pahu; 'but five of the entrants, Miss Winston, , Night Parade," Parasang, Royal Limond, and High. Speed, will be ten years old before,the date, of the National. Twelve, horses, iri'the field are therefore ten years; old or more. .; . . •:'. ->' '-'.'.%■•• The remaining twelve who might stand their 'ground comprise the younger group, a division from which all recent winners except Snowfall have come. The .nine-year-olds are Valpeen, Emancipation, and Allegretto, the eight-year-olds Dunmure, Electric, Flash, Black Man, and Manawatu, the seven-year-olds Diamond,: Forest Glow. Battleground, and Kaola, and the solitary six-year-old Royal Banquet. Four six-year-olds have won • the National, but the unsound Royal Banquet does not look likely to add to this record/this year. Generally the eight-year-olds have the best series of performances, with twelve winners in the last 46 years, including Billy Boy, Thurina, and Valpeen (second win) in, the last four years; but the seven- and nine-year-olds have also had numerous successes,, with the seven-year-olds the better of these ages in the last- twenty years. .