AN ELECTRIC FUTURE

Evening Post, Volume CXII, Issue 107, 2 November 1926, Page 6

AN ELECTRIC FUTURE

USE IN HOME AND INDUSTRY

SIR JOHN SHELL'S FORECAST.

Sir John Snell, president of the Section of Engineering, and chairman of the Electricity Commission, had a large audience for his address, in which he dealt with the present position and future development of electricity, reports "The Times." He said that there was to-day a rapidity increasing growth in the Output of electricity, a decreasing cost, and consequent widening circles of application. As in due season the industry same to simplify its position by;, adopting one standard frequency and by. reducing the number qf supply pressures to the minimum practicable, the demands for electricity in this densely populated country were bound to expand to a degree not yet visualised. At the present time, the amount of electricity generated in Great, Britain, omitting privately owned stations, amounted to about '7,000,000,000 units annually, of which less than 2,000,000,----000 were absorbed by, railways and tramways. In estimating the future it was necessary to look far ahead. There were: three classes of supply in which, great extensions might reasonably be expected: Domestic supplies, industrial power, and railway electrif cation. ! Within a reasonable time the domestic consumption might be expected to reach 20,000,000,000 units, industrial power 20,000,000,000 units, and railway t'ractioA only 7,000,000,000 units, The sources of power available in this country were mainly coal and coke. There were inland and tidal water power available to a small extent, but it was certain that the'bulk of the future electrical output must be produced in fuel-fired stations. There was no known method of storing'electricity on a very large'scale, and consideration had. therefore ta be given to the most economical means of coping with the public demand from hour to hour,.almost from mini}te to minute. It was a fundamental requirement in'the economies of the supply . that the high load part of the total output must be prodneed at the most economical rate that engineers could devise. The two principal items in which economies would have to be sought were reduction in the consumption of coal per unit generated, and a reduction in capital expenditure. In an'existing modern station coal represented 46 per cent., capital charges 40 per cent., and other charges 14 per cent,, of the total generating costs... , ■..: . . Tljere seemed little doubt we might expect {fcithin a few years that electricity would be generated at modern power stations even wiijij. direct firing at a figure of 0.3d or Jess per unit. This would be transmitted at high pressure? for such purposes as railway traction, large, blocks pf industrial power, „ and supplies in bulk to'lqcal undertakers, who in turn wojiloVretail it to their consumers.- This involved the construction of high-tension transmission lines or cables and the provision of . transformers antl:,•■ switehgear. Broadly speaking, transmission costs would add 10 per cent, to tiie cost of the units sent out from the power stations, assuming a reasonable average load factor. So we could hope to transmit energy in quantity and transform it looali.- to the required service pressure at a cost of 0.33 dor less per unit sent out when applied at an average load factor of say 33 per cent. In Great Britain it would probably not be possible to make use of overhead lines to the same extent as was posible in the U.S.A. and some other countries. The advantage of overhead lines lay in the ability to usa the highest pressures and in their smaller cost compared wUh the underground cables. For equal losses the cost of cable transmission of large carrying capacity, and working at the comparatively low pressure of 33,000 and 66,000 volts, was proportionate to the cost of overhead, lines working at like pressure* at 2.5:1 and 2:1 respectively. Assuming that\ the average price of coal (of 10,500 B.Th.TJ. value) delivered to the generating stations throughout the country was 20s per ton, it was safe to say that the average price at which electricity should be available within a few years, should be under £Hoths of one penny per unit. In coneltuion,'the president discussed the applications of electricity to agriculture, summarised the pioneering I work, in? that "respect being done at: Eothamsted, and predicted an important future for this aid to rural life and to the national food supply. . _ Sir Oliver Lodge said that at one time the test of civilisation was said to be the amount of soap used, but the test to-day and in the future would probably be the quantity of electricity demanded. It was a remarkable fact that the great development of electric supply had been made within so short a period and it was difficult to predict what might happen during the next 50 years. It was now recognised that the electrical method was the most economical form of power distribution and the time was coming when all requirements in the fields of lighting, heat, cookinging, and all industrial, factory, and railway operations would be carried out by electricity .partly generated by water power.