POLITICAL SUSPENSE

Evening Post, Volume LXXXIX, Issue 6, 8 January 1915, Page 6

POLITICAL SUSPENSE

Though the Massey Government has not yet been returned to power definitely, it has the comfort that no other party or combination can claim a majority, at present, in the new House of Representatives. The position to-day is that the Massey Party declares it has a strength of forty-one (including Messrs. Statham and Tau Henare), but Mr. Statham has decided to resign (as a preliminary to another contest with Mr. Munro), and the Ward Party is hopeful that. Mr. Henare may be turned against the Government. So far as the public can learn from Mr. Henare's remarks since the election, the member for Northern Maori has carefully refrained from tying himself to either party. The Liberal-Labour-Socialist group of thirty-nine in eludes Dr. M'Nab, but it is understood that another election for Hawkes Bay is inevitable. The blunder of Mr. Parr's secretary, who — it seems — fell into a trap which should have been detected by a shrewd glance, may also bring another election for Mount Eden. If Mr. Parr is eligible to reoffer himself, he should be able to win — for he had a very large majority a month ago — and in any case the Government should be able to retain the seat. The press which supports Sir Joseph Ward prophesies that Mr. Munro (Social Democrat) will prevail in Dunedin Central, but the other side makes predictions to the .contrary. It is well Tniown that Mr. Statham was injured by the Bible League a month ago, and it is possible that this organisation will not make such. an onset against him at the next poll. The prospect in Hawkes Bay is one to give rival soothsayers abundance of scope for competition in forecasts. No doubt, an average onlooker would have an impression that Dr. 'M^Nab has the better chance, but it is possible that new factors may have an appreciable influence in the by-elec-tion. The circumstances will be very different from the contest of 10th December, when nobody knew what the "state of parties" was to-be on the mor- I row. By present signs, when the can- j didates in the several unsettled -consti- j tuencies go to the poll, Mr. Massey will j appear to have the better prospect of I offering a definite basis of administration to the public, and that element may help Ministerialists. The undesirable i evenness ol Government and Opposition can be better redressed by voting for Massey candidates than for nomineesof the opposing parties. The reason is that the Ward Party depends vitally on the support of Labour members (three) and Social Democrats (three). The Opposition press and Sir Joseph .Ward himself have stated that all the opponents of the Government are now practically a single party, but a denial has been given emphatically by the Social Democrats' official organ, the Maoriland Worker. The political situation to-day is extremely unpleasant for all parties. During the holiday season the general public has not bothered about tha state of parties, but with the return to regular work a feeling of uneasiness will become prevalent. Unfortunately, the suspense will not be changed till the Electoral Courts sit next month, and the uncertainty will not be ended, till the rc*ulti

of the by-elections have been officially and finally announced. Meanwhile vague rumours of "coalition" are current, but speculation on such a. topic is unsafe at a time when each of the two large parties hopes to be able to command a. majority in the House of Representatives. In all this confusion of things political and national, pne definite movement— of which the beginning goes back to 1905 — can be seen unmistakably. Labour is working for political independence, and will be content with nothing less than ite own party. The Ward and Labour Parties, ai'e in league against the Massey Government on- a basis of bargain (chiefly Sir Joseph's promise of proportional representation'), but the Labour members are not merging themselves in the Ward Party. This decision to be independent will be strengthened by the visit of Mr. Andrew Fisher. Addressing a Labour deputation at Auckland last' week, the Commonwealth's Prime Minister remarked that "he could clearly see that proportional representation would unquestionably be of service, but Labour would fail under any electoral system unless it maintained an attitude of aggressive independence. Labour should not stand out of electorates for any cause whatever.-