RANDOM NOTES

Dominion, Volume 33, Issue 4, 29 September 1939, Page 8

RANDOM NOTES

Sidelights On Current

Events

(By Kickshaws.)

It is stated that very little comment has been noticed on the tobacco tax. Enthusiasts just put it in their pipes and smoke it.

Well, well, we don’t know whether those canteens will be wet or dry, but we hope the weather will make up its mind.

A traveller says that everything that God made in Sydney is beautiful Sydney residents are preening themselves at this personal compliment.

High official circles in Italy, it has been reported, consider that Britain and France should take the opportunity to make the best of a bad bargain. They consider that Germany is on top of the war. One must not take opinions of this nature too seriously. In the first place, if high officials in Italy considered that Germany had so good a chance of winning, it is curious that Italy has lost a certain interest in the axis. The fact that she has not thrown in her lot with Hitler at least suggests a prudence composed partly of a doubt as to the gains to be obtained from such an action. On the other hand, it is an open secret that high officials in Italy are most anxious to end the war. because its repercussions may affect Italy seriously. Moreover, if it does not end quickly, Germany’s chances become more and more remote, and Italy’s position in Europe and the Mediterranean more and more invidious. One must, therefore, assume that Italian opinions at the moment consist partly of bias and partly of wishful thought.

Although the war has only been waged for just over three weeks, it is even possible now to consider what has occurred in a detached manner. The German authorities can claim that they have defeated Poland. Many military experts considered that this operation would take from three to six weeks. What military experts and others did not appreciate was that Hitler was conquering Poland for Russia. The situation at present is that a million Russian troops are now at Germany's eastern doorway. The German High Command cannot remove all troops from this area, because Stalin is almost as fickle as Hitler. Moreover, the probability that communistic policies will spread into Germany are by no means remote. The German High Command must have a suspicious feeling that Stalin is not making pacts with Hitler out of sheer brotherly love for a man who for years has denounced Russia and all its ways. The end of the Polish campaign does not mean that all troops will be removed from Germany’s eastern frontier, and that Germans and Russians will settle down to fraternize. Indeed, that produces a danger that would horrify 75 per cent, of the German nation,

Now that the sour grapes of the Polish campaign are being harvested with Russia, Hitler has had to tell the German nation —what they did not know before—that French forces are operating on German territory on the western front. Germany’s richest coalbearing area has been destroyed and Allied pressure still persists. The fact that there is a sharp division of opinion among the German High Command as to suitable action to take on the Western front, suggests that all is nut entirely satisfactory. The German High Command knows, moreover, that even if the Allies were driven from their present advanced position in Germany, they can retire to a defensive line on the French border which would require a superior force of five to one to menace it, and many weary years to take, if indeed it was then successful. The situation, therefore, is that a quick decision will not be obtained on the western front by Germany. Her troops will be engaged endlessly in that area to no good purpose. The chances that Russia will supply troops to assist Germany' on that front are very remote. It would not serve the purposes of the Soviet. Stalin prefers to permit somebody else to do the fighting, leaving him a dominating position over Germany to demand what pickings he likes. » » »

We inay, even now, assume that a lightning war is most unlikely to eventuate on the Western front The German nation, therefore, must make plans for a long war. This is exactly what the German military experts did not desire. If, as high official circles in Italy declare, Germany can last indefinitely, it seems strange that plans were not made beforehand. The German economic structure has now to make adjustments to that end. It is not going to be simple. The mark already has become almost valueless in the open market Trading nations will not lie competing to. hand over goods in return for rubbish. The tendency, indeed, will be to supply goods to those nations who have the money or the credits to acquire them. Certain nations may be forced by threats to supply Germany with goods, but it is not a foundation for good trade. Britain, France and America united long ago to form the most powerful monetary combine in the world. Germany is not likely to be assisted* by any of these Powers. Without that assistance there is no other monetary Power in a position to help. Germany, in 1914, went to war with assets in foreign stock and bonds of £1,500,000,000. Today her assets are in the vicinity of £50,000,000 at the value of the Reichmark in August.

There are other considerations which high circles in Italy seem to have conveniently overlooked when they pretend to admit that Germany is in -a position to last indefinitely and Britain should make the best of a bad bargain. The submarine campaign, instituted four weeks ago, shows every sign of failure This means that, whereas Germany will have difficulty in importing, even if she could pay for the goods, Britain and France will have the world’s markets open .to them. Moreover, thev will be able to carry on and export goods to these markets, thereby conserving their economic strength. In contrast, Germany’s export trade will be almost nothing. There are. however, other factors. The chances of Germany obtaining adequate supplies of food are small, and her chances of adequate supplies of oil are eveu less. Russia, Poland and Rumania, between them, could not meet the demand. As regards man-power, Hitler no doubt realizes only too well that Germany can put into the war only 1,300,000 men with two years’ training, in comparison with 5,000,000 possessed by France. Moreover, Germany is lamentably short of officers, from generals downShe has 34,000 officers for her trained armies, whereas 45,000 are required. A German army of 100 divisions, moreover, contains at present about 4000 trained staff officers, wherea§ 5000 is the total necessary to do the job properly. Unless the trained army is diluted dangerously, the German High Command cannot rely on more than 100 trained divisions at the front. The French, in contrast, can put in the field right now 150 divisions, and maintain them with a probable expansion to 200 divisions. The Italian viewpoint is therefore unsound, even as propaganda.