Are Earthquakes Predictable?

Dominion, Volume 32, Issue 234, 1 July 1939, Page 13

Are Earthquakes Predictable?

Sir—A writer iu Thursday’s issue of “The Dominion” believed earthquakes unpredictable. I believe otherwise. In an earthquake likely to turn Wellington upside down, four things would occur before the event. One would be in the nature of a probability only; but the other three would be certainties; one even going the length of a likelihood of giving at least three days’ silent warning. An individual gifted with a balanced mind, with access to this information, could only use it for his own benefit; three possibilities barring him from distributing the Information: two of these would be disbelief and panic possibilities, while the third, because of the finely-balanced nature of the events one with the other, would be sufficient to prevent him taking the risk of a false alarm. However, the writer believes that an earthquake of the above magnitude isn’t likely to happen within /the next 50 years, with the probability of a year or two’s warning from the Kaikouras beforehand, so—l am, etc., WHY WORRY? Wellington, June 30.