The Dominion. TUESDAY, JULY 16, 1935. EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Dominion, Volume 28, Issue 247, 16 July 1935, Page 8

The Dominion. TUESDAY, JULY 16, 1935. EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Tn’ seismological science the consensus of opinion is. that earthquakes arc caused bv the movements of large earth masses whic:l ■ greater or lesser magnitude are part of Natures te rres t" a J Corresponding visible movements on the earth s surface on a ‘ scale are seen in slips and landslides, and when these occur a little time elapses before the vicinity becomes stabilised, permitting N atui e cover the sar with vegetation. These visible movements have his point in common with earthquakes, that their occurrence is SmoX inkriably sudden and unexpected. In the case of unstab ground where previous slips have occurred it is possible to detect the development of subsequent “creeps and so, t fall with a fair degree of accuracy. Similar predictions with respec to earthquakes would be possible if the movements of the great earth masses Zere visible. Since they are not, seismological research has busied itself with the task of discovering means of predictm impending shocks that will not only be reliable, but also will give warnings in sufficient time to enable threatened communities to m % p e;"d or P e“: ta theory of earthquake causation -and prediction advanced by • Reuben Greenspan, which is reported in a cable message to-day. Mr. Greenspan is described as a young teacher of mathematics ant navigation who has made a hobby of geophysics and seismo lo & y. his opinion the occurrence of earthquakes can be predicted by st yhgX relative positions of the sun and the moon, the pos.uons of certain planets, and tidal movements. He claims 87 per cent, of accurate predictions. Included in his successful predictions, many days ahead, were the big earthquakes at Quetta, Mexico City, and’.in Turkey, all .occurring within a month. To all of this a New Zealand seismologist, Dr. Lyndon Bastings, turns a sceptical eye. He accepts the possibility of P la ’ ie Fry; but points out that so many other factors are present that the chances of reliable prediction on the basis stated are extremely improbable. The recorded number of distinct earth tremors' which occuried last year ran into several thousands, and he would be a poor guessei who could not predict a fair percentage. Dr. Bastings points out that there is no indication in the cabled report that Mr. Greenspan was able to predict the intensity of the earthquakes, which of course is the one vital piece of information people in earthquake areas would like to -have. Discussing the Formosa earthquake in an article in the New York Times, Mr. Waldemar Kaempffert, a leading seismologist, concludes with the statement that though earthquake prediction is a crying need, it is, as far off as ever. “To be sure, he say.,, “the Japanese have sensitive tilt-meters that can foretell the coming of an earthquake hours in advance. A passing area of low barometi ic pressure or a high tide may set off an earthquake but how are such casual phenomena to be considered in predictions ? Seismologists as yet have no answer.” It is this atmosphere of doubt, nevertheless, that justifies, not the too ready acceptance of such comparatively youthful theorists as Mr. Reuben Greenspan, but certainly the careful testing by experts’of any theory of earthquake prediction that may be- submitted. He may be wrong, or he may be 'right, but people are not likely to pack up their belongings and seek safety m ilignt on his testimony until the sun and the moon and the planets have been convicted by a jury of the scientific world on the strength ot overwhelming evidence.