OUR ENGLISH WOOL LETTER.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1611, 30 November 1912, Page 14

OUR ENGLISH WOOL LETTER.

WILL THE BALKAN TROUBLE AFFECT WOOL PRICES.

(Prom Our Special Correspondent.) Bradford, October 18, 1912. A good deal of quiet interest continues to be manifest in the conrso of the- raw material, and if ■ there is silence in Coleman Street Wool Exchange, thousands of mills! are all grinding up tho jaw material. Ono wonders which is first in tho eyes of tho textile world, tho sheop which ore growing tho wool, or tho machinery which is consuming it. Tho writor was talking tl» other day to the principal of one of the .largest firms of spinning ma-chinery-makers in tho world, and ho acknowledged that they were busy producing as many new frames as over. iiuß certainly cannot but be good news to pastoralists the wide world over, and also to those handling tho raw material as it comes from growers' hands. It is quite true that sound finance and confidence in the prospect of doing pood business are two important factors in all commerce, and in'none is this more so than in wool and textile spheres. The peace of the commercial world has been disturbed tins week on nccount of the topsy-turvy attitude of the financial but all the same the textile industry is doing little more than look on in a complacent mood, and while a few people are feeling nervous, the majority seem disposed to let things aloue, and to do nothing except go 011 in the course* they have hitherto followed. Business, on the whole, continues to be. healthy and sound in all manufacturing areas alike,, but the upsetting or Continental bourses as well as a tightening of the purse-strings in the Metropolis, have given rise to a cautious attitude, though it is not thought that much difference will be -made in the wool and textile trades. So long .as consumption is maintaiued, there is little need to fear a slump, and such, a development expected to-day.

A BACKWARD LOOK. The recent London sales are not too far behind to be unworthy of a retrospective glance, for there is ufimistakable evidence in tho way wool then sold that the trade is again very near the sheep's back. Withtile end of the recent auctions,'there carno the finish of the last Australasian clip, and the slate has been wiped clean. Nothing could impress those in attendance in Coleman Street more than the active demand' which continued all through- the auctions, for there was, never a slack night, and no "soft spots" were in_ evidence from first to last. When viewed from-any standpoint, the series can onl> be described as very satisfactory indeed, especially is this "the case for sellers, though buyers naturally look at things .from the other end of the telescope. Still even users prefer a sharp, brisk sale than one in - which values 6ag and demand is poor. Manufacturers have said since the close of the sjiles that the firm finish has done them an" infinite amount of good, for it has convinced the wholesale people that they cannot expect any relief, in wool values for some considerable time, and has* induced them to put down orders more freely, a fair amount of new business being done in yarns and pieces during the past week. The volume, perhaps, may not. have been as large as. we have known during recent months, but it has removed all feelings of uncertainty regarding the future, and although the trouble in the financial world' is exercising the minds-of a few, things will have to become much worse befori the confidence of those' in close touch with the textile trade is affected;' It is quite truo tliat practically all users would hav© preferred to se© prices 2d. per Id. lower for 64*s tops than is the case to-day, but something totally unforeseen will have to come about if such a position is reached, and as far as one can see, there is nothing to suggest much lower prices, although many feel that it is wise to. make, haste slowly. Wool .is being taken out of warehouses in London in a most commendable way, and the same difficulty is not experienced in getting it to manufacturing centres, as after the July 6enes. The whole tradfe seems to be resting upon a very healthy foundation, consumption still being at the maximum.

THE CARRY OVER. As I write this, the'thought, prises .as to what amount of wool has been ciuiiecl forward from the September-October sales during recent years. I have already 6&id that the trade has now got a clean slate to write upon, and users will be looking forward to next series proviidng a fair instalment of "new clip" wools, from Australia. -The question, has been asked a score of times as to what quantity of wool is likely to be available, the general impression being that about 80,000 to" 90,000 bales will be the utmost that, the trade can reckon on. Shearing being delayed in Australia means that there will be a late season, and that being the case, it naturally follows that somewhat limited supplies will have to be faced • between now and the end of next January. However, the carry over last, series is a paltry 7000 bales, 4200 of these being New Zealand; which will be practically all crossbreds. This is a rather interesting phenomenon, for any tbpmaker in 'Bradford oould lift the entire lot of either merinos or oro9sbreds. Below I give a' most interesting table showing the quantities which have been carried forward at the close of the September-October series during recent years.— Bales. 1912 7.000 1911 ' 26,000 1910 ' 13,000 1909 4.00° 1908 37,000 ' 1907. 7,500 1906 8,000 1905 3,600 1901 2,500 1903 6,500 1902 27,000 1901 33,500 1900 133,000" •Owing to the slump, there were only five series held in 1900, the sales finishing on November 3.' It will be seen from the above that the quantities of raw material are just about on an'average compared with recent years, particularly those in which trade was good across the Atlantic. I have said for eomo weeks that conditions obtain to-day in tho wool world which are very similar to 1907, there being a good trade ove.rywhere, with a prospect of a lessened ciip from Australia, and also general confidence in. the future of raw. material. Yet, when I come to turn up average quotas tions during the September-October in that year I find that to-day's averago prices are generally below what wero current then. I mention this fact because of the repeated statements among buyers that values aro to-day getting too high and risky, but one cannot resist the thought that if the trade were justified in operating at 1 higher values in 1907, surely thev are justified in buying on to-day's level. Below 1 give Messrs. Buxton, Ronald and Co.'s quotations for the two periods named:— September September 1907. 1912. Average. Average. Grease Merino, e. d. b. d. s. d. s. d. Victoria: Western, good quality and condition 15-16 14-15 N.S.W.: Riverina good staple and condition 1 3J-1 H 12-1 21 N.SAV.: New England, fine, bluish 1 35-1 4J. 1 2-1 3 Queensland: Cen-.. tral, good staple, fair, condition 12-13 11-12 S. Australia: Mid-. lauds, fair length and condition 1 li-1 ! 0 10 -0 11 New Zealand: South Island, fair character ■ 1 01-1 14 0 111-1 01 Natal: Fair staple, skirty 0 95-0 10 0 74-0 81 Sooured Merino. _ s. d. s. d. e. d. 6. d. Victoria: Fair body and colour 2 2 -2 3 1 11 -2 0 Queensland: Good quality, colour, and ' condition 2 11-2 3 2 0 -2 1 N.S.AV.: Fair pink, rather fatty • 1 101-1 U 19-1 10 N.Z.: Fair body and colour 2 1-22 1 10-1-1 1H Cape: Kaffrarian, short, light 19-19-1 1 5 -1 G To complete tho above partlwlnnj, I jii)n\ i Bttjht to give oonenDomllM anov

tations for New Zealand orossbrcds, and tho details ajo supplied below— Soptcmbor September Average. Average. 1007. 1912. Greaso Crossbrod. b. d. 6- d. e. d. s.. d. Victoria: Halfbred, super, BO's50's 15-10 12-18 Crossbrod, medium 46's ... 1 1-1 14 10-10$ N.X.: ITalfbred, super 50's-56s 13-14 1 14-1 2 4 •!-! 1 1.4. OHH • twin Crossbrod, , . coarse, 36's OU-0 »} 0 9 5"° 10 No ono can impartially look at tho above figures without acknowledging that prices aro on tlio whole fairly high, but in face of the present good trade and a certain prospect of less wool from Australia. ono oannot soo much chance of easier values. The outstanding feature of the textile trade is that business is good everywhere, and it is upon this that hope is placed regarding the I havo previously said, tho whole industry seems to bo too near the sheep s back to allow prices to decline much, and if wo had to see a set-back on ac<xmiit of deareT money and a financial crisis on the Continent, it could only be temporary. If conditions in Germany remain intact, no one need have tho least fear about the . • .