A FORECAST.

Dominion, Volume 2, Issue 325, 12 October 1908, Page 5

A FORECAST.

WHAT WILL THE HARVESTS BE? I BIG CROPS PREDICTED. This may seem to bo a rather early dato at which to begin predicting, but there are solid reasons for prophesying that thero are going to be big crops of all things that grow on the farms this season. This is not a reckloss prophecy without foundation —a sort of sportive plunge. It' is based on facts —facts that decido whether the crops shall 'find the soil in good heart in the period between seed time and harvest.

Let us review the chief of those facts. First there was a dry summer last season, and, in consequence, the soil mass was hurst open in huge deep cracks.. The hot air seized its .chance, 1 and penetrated, scorching the vegetation it is true, and spoiling last year's growths, but insinuating into the innermost fabric of the subsoil the germs of a grand fertility for the season to come. It broke down into small fragments hard subsoils that had not been dcssicated for ages, and flooded the interstices with vitalising air. Meanwhile, its oxygen worked. Inert compounds were oxidised and shattered and made digestible. Here an eloment was seized by the keen searching oxygen and dragged from its former inertia into new compound; and there, another element, whose affinity for oxygen was weak, was cast out from its chemical associates and sent adrift for letter or for worse to find new friends. And in the midst of all these changes, soluble compounds emerged from hitherto raw sclid subsoilscompounds distributed along millions of tiny air channels in the soil body. ' These compounds will bo the plant foods of the near future—tlio basis of this seascn's record crops. • Distributed as they are throughout the whole surface to a great depth—thanks to the severity of the drought—these plant foods will be waiting: within' reach of every rootlet. They are wrapped like a film round every grain of the soil, ready to bo yielded up at the touch' of tho first root hair, that brushes past it'later on. Our drought-smitten soils, in short, became, in proportion to their relative abilities, veritable mines of fertility. They becamc digestible.: Nitrates and phosphates, limo compounds and--potash, which would •in ordinary •' weather"- have • remained insoluble, and rigidly fixed'iri the soil grains/ are now only awaiting, the sap' influence of ; the .plant roots to enter into the composition of tho crops. ' » . \ ; Then there was. the autumn. The autumn might have been one wild period of saturating downpours of'rain'filling tho soil interstices, swelling its mass, washing and squeezing the precious - newly-dissolved [>lant foods into drains,, or down-over gully sides, soaking it to repletion, drowning and poisoning .the valuable soil bacteria,, and- stifling the soil from all access to oxygen. But the past autumn aid not do that. It just gentle -showers, which ' hovered, ahoutr near the surface, ■reviving l tho roots of the flagged pastures,, or diffused slowly from particle to particle, moistening but not. scouring, away the fertility, providing the soil bacteria with a damp medium-in which' to multiply and .fashion. more .plant; food,', without overwhelming and impeding them with an excess of water;-and,.above all else,not lowering the soil temperature, as seasons; of flood- would . do, but-' economising the, warmth that the summer had proyideu. The. drought and the" dry autumn provided ;a. combination of 'circumstance*'that were perfect for forming'a'basis for record crops. In: such, soil as this season hasinherited- from ; the past summer and autumnj the growth of root in , the • been of. the most; reproductive\kind.7'ln; the wet- period of a season,, )^ria|V^{^B^/^ v gpromote' not -being over saturated, the root growth' been downward.-.. This' deep rooting will" be advantageous -.in - several yways,;, The subsoil' plant-foods, of course,. will he . reached, and • these will be';a .'distinct addition 'to'tho"sue-, face feeding.!(lohb by' the' roots,' which ' ari always ' abundant.- in any plant. Tlion, when the dry weather of .summer comes along, and tho' surface of; tho soil becomes .parched and contracts,, snapping off the surface roots, - the' plants ', will have their deep roots to nourish thorn, and a drought 1 can be longer endured.,' . ■ We have almost passed now tho usual' period of danger from cold excessive" rains, : and it may bo almost relied on that "from now onward the warmth of ■ the soil will increase. Considerable rainfall this month could' bo absorbed without injuring tho conditions. It may he taken as a clear prospect .that there will be record crops of ■w.heat and other cereals, early grazing, fodder crops, roots, garden produce, and crops generally, as well as heavy yields of southern strawberries, ■ and . splendid quality in sucli orchard fruits as are gathered. Orchard trees where the tillage is right should also "mako excellent growth. There is not the same prospect of an abundant strawberry harvest at Auckland, becauso tho rainfall, in that part of the Dominion, has been normal. This is unfortunate, because Auckland produces such an abundanco of that fruit when ' conditions favour. Still, there is no reason to expect the crop to bo below the average oven there. The chief increases of yield will be noticed in those districts which have experienced light rainfall, and whose .soils are. of comparatively stiff clay. The principal ' wheat districts como well within tho definition. The lowness of the rainfall in the Wellington districts will be seen in the following figures of the 'Wellington rainfall during tho last nine months:— ' • Tons per acre. January 64 February ■■■ 3 . •'March-' ■•••• 487 April 237 - May - 177 June 484 July .629 August 338 September 11l Total 2530 The average' rainfall of the last 47 years over those nine months has been about 4000 tons per acre. Tho Wellington soils, therefore, are now short of ail average supply of water to an extent of nearly 1500 tons jper acre. Much of tho space in tho soil which, in an ordinary year, would be occupied by the additional 1500 tons of moisture, will now, contain air, with its fertilising constituent oxygen. Meteorologists, to whom farmers are just beginning to look for hints as to their prospects, recognise tho connection between a dry autumn and a big following harvest. For example, tho Rev. D. C. Bates, F.R.G.S., of the New Zealand Meteorological Office, in a-paper read to the New Zealand Agricultural Conferonco at Wellington in 1905; said: —"The British Mctorological. Office lias shown how tho rainfall of tho previous autumn has, more than that of other periods, a wonderful effect upon tho,yields of wheat in tho following year, the wheat yield going up as the rainfall is lower —less rain more wheat —and rising and falling in fairly close relationship, every inch of rainfall being accountable for a drop in tho yield of wheat, at the ■ rate of a bushel and a quarter per acre. In a rough way, I havo already found it true in Now Zealand."