THE FAR EAST.

Dominion, Volume 1, Issue 231, 23 June 1908, Page 10

THE FAR EAST.

RUSSIA, CHINA, AND JAPAN.

AVAR INEVITABLE. (by telegraph.—special cohubspondent). Auckland, Juno 22. Among the passongers who arrived by the Mokoia from Sydney last evening was Mr. G- V. S. .Patterson, tlio well-known gum merchant) who has just concluded another tour of the East. Mr. Patterson has paid three visits to China and Japan during tho past four years, and on each occasion has made a study of tho conditions obtaining there, both socially and politically. In the course of an interview with, a " Herald" representative Mr. Patterson said: —

"I spent most of tho timo during .my trip in Manchuria, Corea, and' Japan, and as a general rule found conditions thero to bo verj unsettled. The situation in Manchuria is becoming very grave indeed, inasmuch as tho Japaneso are treating tho Chinese thero aj a conquered nation. When the Russians were there they allowed the Chinese to trade, _ their solo idea apparently being the acquisition of territory, but it is different with the Japaneso, who are ignoring China's sovereignty in every shapp and form, and wherever possible they confiscate all the trade with tho result that the Chinese, who are barn traders, aro much incensed, and would welcome the Russians back with open arms. Tho open door policy in Manchuria is really a farce as far as the AVestern nations are concerned. Japan is' arranging it for Japan, and Japan only. Although she does not openly declare it, she really 'regards Man-, churia as part of her empire, and seems to resent tho intrusion of foreigners. Europeans travelling on the South Manchurian Railway are treated with scant courtesy by the Japanese soldiers and officials. " There can only bo one end to tho situation," Mr. Patterson .went on, " and that.is.war between China and Japan, but how soon' that will eventuato it is impossible to,-say. A\ hen I came back a 1 year ago I foreshadowed that contingency. Ever since the war ended China has boon suspicious of Japan, and with reason, and' this suspicion- 'lias now' given way to a bitter feeling which has been accentuated by the seizure of the Tat-su -Maru and as a result .of which tho. great boycott has been set up. This is the only weapon that China has used up to the prcscritj and it is a very effective one in that it is crippling Japan's industries, and therefore her financial position.' If China is 'true to lior declaration that she will raafyo Japan suffer to tho extent of tho indemnity which tho lattor country.imposed- on her, 'then .the result to Japan must be disastrous. _ '^ 10 position in Corea," continued Mr. Patuorson, " is that Corea is gradually passing into the hands of the 'Japanese, contrary to the whole spirit of tho Japaneso uitornational obligation.- Japan is playing a double part there. She entered tho country as its friend and protector, but is now' acquiring supromo power by devious methods, oho is filling all- the official posts with..Japanese, is endeavouring to forco her lanp:tiau:o on the people by teaching it only in the schools and, so the Coroaus say, is seizing land and-' property without respect to porsons or Ja P an .soems to bo afraid of is that if Corea gets into any other nation's hands it will seriously affect Japan's strategical position in Asia. Japan is thus playing into Russia s hands. There is bound to bo friction botwoen China and Japan in niture, and Russia, I-believe, is backing up China. She would be very glad to seo ctiina become tho aggressor, and then como in .'later on. \\ itlnn tho next ten yoars Russia will be m a bettor position to fight Japan than she was beforo tho.late war. The.Duma has' sanctioned the construction of the Amur Railway, which is to link up her Manchuriah systom with her Siberian base. Thoy havo also decided on duplicating the Siberian line,' and the Oronburg-Tashkend line, which joins j-Uikostan to European Russia, is to be connected with tho. Siborian. line. Further than Ii V a i® ls from Baikal across the Mongolian desert to, within striking dista?>F° °f Peking, thus flanking the Japaneso position in Manchuria, and bringing Siberia, as a military basis, into closo and direct contact with - the pea. / Russia has not been morally or permanently injured by tho late war, and with a view to ultimately gaining her ascendancy in tho East is rapidly concentrating a groat military forco on the frontier, or within striking' distanco. Sh'o is establishing great military stores in tho Trans-Baikal rogion, and these will ultimately be turned into arsenals. In Vladivostok she has increased her forces' to twelve talions, and will ultimately havo no fewor .than 250,000 men ready at a moment's call east of and around Lake Baikal,' which .is only 700 miles from the disputed zone in Manchuria, and within six weeks would bo able to strengthen this forco by another 250,000. She is also settling Siberia with young men as rapidly as possible, so that these'may be called upon to defend their homes. n

" You don't hold out much hope for Japan then?"

" No, Ido not. Japan is really to-day on the verge of bankruptcy.;. ; What she is doing now in building ships is really being done on borrowed money, which was raised during tho war, and this will soon give out. Russia, on the other hand, has immense resources behind her, and is going to use them. Japan's victory, I consider, ill tho late war was really ono of tho'greatest calamities that ever happened, so far as tho Western natjons are concerned. It set tho coloured nations thinking, and is responsible to a very great extent for what is going on in India at the present'timo."

Speaking with;regard to the awakening of China, Mr. Patterson said that she was not at all aggressively inclined; and. so far as lie could seo from tho trond'of events neither Australia nor New_ Zealand need bo afraid of tho Yellow Peril from either China or Japan for tho next twenty-five years. " What," ho said, " we have to pray for, so far as Japan herself is concerned, is Russian interference. Tho renewal of the Anglo-Japanese treaty on'tho moro'comprehonsivo scale is, I might say; considered by Europeans in tho East as a political blunder on England's part of tho first magnitude."