Drought toll in India likely to worsen

Press, 5 September 1987, Page 33

Drought toll in India likely to worsen

By

ROBERT MAHONEY

NZPA-Reuter New Delhi India was vowed to fight the worst drought this century on a war footing, but the battle has barely begun. In the parched plains of north-west and central India the lines of thirsty villagers at rapidly depleting wells are growing longer. Newspapers have reported more than 200 deaths from starvation in south-east Orissa, a claim denied by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s Government. Hungry tribesmen raided Government grain stores in the western desert state of Rajasthan where thousands of cattle have been turned out to die for lack of fodder. The failure of the annual monsoon rains has decimated the rice and groundnut crops depriving already poor farmers of vital food and income. Officials, international economists, and agricultural experts predicted severe hardship for millions of peasants this winter although the Gov- ~ ernment has just enough food stocks to prevent w famine. Prices of fruit and vegetables have doubled in some cases and shortages of milk and dairy products have hit main cities. Butter is unobtainable in the capital, New Delhi, and bread is in short supply.

More than 2000 women protesting against price rises clashed with police in Delhi on August 26. Opposition parties have accused the Government of masking the seriousness of the drought, which weather experts say is the worst since records began last century. “The Government is down-playing the drought because it does not want to encourage speculation and hoarding,” said one economist familiar with drought relief work. “They are worried, but at the same time they are dithering and things are getting worse,” he said.

Nature has dealt the country a double blow this summer as much of north-east India is under water. Heavy monsoon rains have killed more than 200 people and destroyed crops in Bihar, West Bengal and Assam. Even the normally lush tropical south has not been spared. Drinking water is being ferried in tankers to the city of Madras.

The searing sun has not only sucked water out of the countryside but also money. Agricultural incomes have plummeted and 33 million landless labourers who depend upon harvesting for the bulk of their income have started drifting into towns in search of work. The Government has begun projects such as road-building to mop up

excess labour but it does not have enough money to make much of an impact

The lack of water has also hit industry, which is being starved of electricity. Power cuts are common with hydro-electric power stations running far below capacity. Economists expect the 5 per cent economic growth of the last three years to be flattened to zero this year.

"It is still too early to estimate the long-term effects of this drought for the economy... but for the rural population it is going to be hard,” one economist said.

The Government set up a “crisis management” group this month and promised to press trains, road tankers, and pipelines into service to supply drinking water.

Mr Gandhi has started touring both drought and flood hit areas but his Government has not spelt out the drought’s consequences on food supplies and economic growth, prompting speculation that things are going to get much worse. One Western economist said relief was not going to the people who needed it.

“The mechanisms for getting relief through the layers of central and state government bureaucracy to where it is needed are inadequate,” he said. Officials in Rajasthan, where rains have been

poor for the last two years, admit privately that cash relief for last year’s drought there has still not been fully paid ouL

The political fallout the calamity is likely to be considerable. The worst affected regions are in India’s Hindi-speaking heartland, the powerbase of Gandhi’s Congress (I) Party. Mr Gandhi and Congress have seen their support eroded this year by a spate of allegations of corruption. Congress state governments have been focusing on staying in power and stemming party revolts rather than on administration, according to political commentators. Mr Gandhi, who must call a General Election by the end of 1989, will be under pressure to contain drought-induced inflation and dig deep into Delhi’s already depleted coffers to provide relief, they say.

Economists believe India will have to spend between SUS6OO million and SUSI billion on relief. They believe also that India, which has prided itself on being self-suffi-cient in foodgrains since the late 19705, will need to import rice and wheat in the coming year.

The Government has said it has 23 million tonnes of grain in reserve but the economists say spoilage, transport losses, and theft mean that only

18 million tonnes will be available.

“If the drought is as bad as we think then that buffer will be wiped out and they will have to import,” a Western agriculture expert said.

The crunch will come in October when the wheat crop is sown in the northern breadbasket states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, the Western expert said. If ground moisture was not replaced by then the crop could be poor. International economists said the drought could scuttle Mr Gandhi's already scaled-down policy of economic liberalisation and reform. They expect cuts in liberalised imports of capital goods to make up for the extra spending on drought 1 relief.

“Since India does not import consumer goods and so-called non-essen-tial goods the only areas (to be cut) are liberalised imports for industry,” one said.

“The Government’s attention is now going to be focused on the drought,not economic reform,” said another. Opponents of liberalisation were expected to point to the higher prices, deteriorating balance of payments, and reduced industrial production after the drought as evidence that liberalisation has not worked, economists said.